ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Blown Away]

IMO, the LLC looks pretty good. Local mets talking about this wave moving into Florida late weekend, no hints or mention of any development, that may change!

Hurakan, how is this not being talked about more?? Looks good this morning, where are all my Florida homies??

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks good this morning, where are all my Florida homies??

Sleeping lol.

This looks interesting, but I don't think it will reform. Conditions are just to hostile overall. Also, if it did reform, I would have to eat a lot of crow lol. Last week I told a lot of people not to worry about Fred, it would not come anywhere near us, it was on its way on re curving out into the ocean. I said Fred was going to be a non event for the US. This was when the models were showing it recurving and everyone thought it was going to dissipate anyways. If this reforms, I have a lot of explaining to do lol.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 07, 2009091812, , BEST, 0, 253N, 660W, 25, 1013, LO

They're still keeping an eye on it!

[HURAKAN]

665
WHXX01 KWBC 181211
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1211 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090918 1200 090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 66.0W 26.1N 67.8W 26.9N 69.6W 27.3N 71.0W
BAMD 25.3N 66.0W 25.5N 67.9W 25.7N 69.4W 25.7N 70.6W
BAMM 25.3N 66.0W 25.8N 67.8W 26.3N 69.3W 26.5N 70.4W
LBAR 25.3N 66.0W 25.9N 68.1W 26.6N 69.7W 27.1N 71.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090920 1200 090921 1200 090922 1200 090923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.5N 73.1W 28.4N 77.3W 29.8N 81.0W 32.1N 83.9W
BAMD 25.8N 71.8W 26.2N 73.9W 26.6N 76.5W 27.4N 79.6W
BAMM 26.7N 71.8W 27.3N 74.6W 28.1N 77.6W 29.7N 80.6W
LBAR 27.1N 72.4W 26.6N 75.0W 26.5N 77.8W 26.8N 81.3W
SHIP 44KTS 50KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 55KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 66.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[wxman57]

This thing is like a cockroach.

[HURAKAN]

This thing is like a cockroach.

Anyone would like to throw a nuclear bomb at it? Oh, sorry, they also survive nuclear bombs!!!!

[HurricaneBelle]

Latest

Fred has a ZZ Top-style beard.

[alan1961]

Latest

Fred has a ZZ Top-style beard.

And he's been given plenty of lovin!, come on Hurakan give us a Billy Gibbons

[HURAKAN]

A+ for trying!

[HURAKAN]

Yes, he's back! (As a disturbance)

[Dean4Storms]

All we are missing here is some persistent convection and this could deepen fairly rapidly back into a TC with it already an impressive circulation to work with, would not take much IMO!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[BigA]

All we are missing here is some persistent convection and this could deepen fairly rapidly back into a TC with it already an impressive circulation to work with, would not take much IMO!

Agreed. Fred ¨looks¨a lot like a 40 to 50 mph tropical storm right now. I say looks because 1) I am not sure how well defined the surface circulation is, and 2) tropical cyclones must have persistence. If said convection can stay as it is or improve, we may see an upgrade in the future. The system is under some northerly shear right now, but it looks like a few degrees westward said shear will abate.

[Blown Away]

I read the stronger it gets more W it goes and almost a hurricane.

[blp]

Convection working its way over the center. If the shear lays off a little watch out. Nice low level rotation.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Macrocane]

Very nice burst of convection over the center, it looks better than Danny IMO, let's see if convection this time persist or poofs as it has been the case with the other bursts.

[Steve H.]

If the shear drops off and the environment moistens, we could have TS Fred again. But let's not jump the gun yet. Fred is itsy bitsy right now, and it wouldn't take much shear to strip him. If he does re-gain TS staus, we will have to see if the ridging on the eastern seaboard builds in. If not,, he could turn towards the GA/SC. If the ridging does build in, somewhere on the FL peninsula. Now will he be a cyclone or a thunderstorm?

[Steve H.]

Still some decent shear from the NE probably coming from high pressure near the mid_Atlantic, noticable on the 16:45 visible. This must drop off if Fred is to regain any strength.

[Blown Away]

Still some decent shear from the NE probably coming from high pressure near the mid_Atlantic, noticable on the 16:45 visible. This must drop off if Fred is to regain any strength.

Since about 3:45am the convection has been building w/o being sheared off and now the convection is building over the LLC. If this trend continues I see code orange or even red at 2pm.