ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[deltadog03]

A little change in tune from nhc. Upper winds do look better further west. We shall see!

[Derek Ortt]

low is too small to be resolved by QS

[ozonepete]

I never buy W bound named tropical system landfalls N of Vero Beach Florida to the Ga/SC line. I don't care what the models say.

If I may ask, why?

Probably because a lot of times, storms don't gain as much latitude as the models think or at least as quickly. Just my amateur observation..

Historically the climatology shows it's extremely rare for a TS or hurricane to hit north of about Vero Beach, mainly due to the recurve factor. If they are westbound, they are almost always, roughly, around the latitude of Miami. In order to hit Florida, they can't recurve. To not recurve, they need a strong Bermuda High/Ridge, and if it's in place then the storm will continue west to southern Florida. If they're starting to recurve, and they miss south Florida, then they'll certainly miss the rest of it. Sorry I can't post a climo map right now, but if you look at charts of all hurricanes that have hit Florida in the last hundred years, you'll see that very few ever go to Daytona Beach or north.

[HURAKAN]

959
WHXX01 KWBC 181756
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1756 UTC FRI SEP 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090918 1800 090919 0600 090919 1800 090920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 67.0W 26.5N 68.8W 27.0N 70.3W 27.1N 72.0W
BAMD 25.9N 67.0W 26.0N 68.6W 26.0N 69.8W 26.0N 70.8W
BAMM 25.9N 67.0W 26.3N 68.7W 26.5N 70.0W 26.5N 71.4W
LBAR 25.9N 67.0W 26.4N 68.6W 26.9N 69.8W 27.3N 70.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090920 1800 090921 1800 090922 1800 090923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 74.1W 28.2N 78.0W 29.4N 81.7W 30.8N 85.3W
BAMD 26.0N 71.8W 26.3N 73.8W 26.6N 76.4W 26.4N 79.5W
BAMM 26.6N 72.9W 27.1N 76.0W 27.7N 79.4W 28.6N 82.9W
LBAR 27.3N 72.1W 27.2N 74.1W 27.4N 76.4W 27.5N 79.7W
SHIP 43KTS 49KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 43KTS 49KTS 53KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 287DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 25.1N LONM12 = 64.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 61.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

AL, 07, 2009091818, , BEST, 0, 259N, 670W, 25, 1012, LO

[deltadog03]

Hmm...I was wondering if they were going to run the hwrf and gfdl. I seen the hwrf 12z run, but it was pretty weak/ill defined. any word on what gfdl did?

[wxman57]

As much as I would like Fred to dissipate/die, I think it's proven that it cannot be killed by shear or dry air. I fully suspect moving across the U.S. from the east to the west coast may not kill it.

Unless that remnant low dissipates in the next 24 hours, then it may have a chance at regeneration. Question is, into what? A TS? Hurricane, even? Where will it go? GFDL takes it right toward the central Gulf in 5 days. I'm not sure at all that it will even be around that long. But if it does enter the eastern Gulf early next week, then a deepening upper low over the Southern Plains should prevent any movement toward TX or LA, as moderate SW-WSW winds will prevail aloft across the NW Gulf. This would suggest a northerly turn toward the FL Panhandle if it enters the Gulf.

Here's a current analysis with satellite. As you can see, not very impressive looking. And note the very high pressures all around it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest model runs

[wxman57]

I also notice that there's an OFCI track in the models. That's something the NHC put in there as a possible track. Certainly different from the GFDL/HWRF/GFS tracks:

[deltadog03]

Wxman, IMO looks like it might be closer to the OFCI then the other ones. I think the gfdl and hwrf initialized a bit too far south. Maybe a nice blend btwn the spread and something inbtwn.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I find this hilarious whether it regenerates or not that this thing went from being more likely to hit Spain to taking dead aim at FL....About 3 weeks later....Can never say never with Mother Nature...

[Ivanhater]

Well of course this is not a Katrina, but it is funny the same set-up. Struggling ex remnant circulation, possible reorganization in the Bahamas, moves across Florida, expected to turn into the Florida panhandle. Even if this does not develop, it has been interesting to watch.

[somethingfunny]

Unbelievable that Fred may end up hitting Mobile after all, half a month later. I still can't comprehend what posessed the WMO to put this name on the list when Fabian was retired.

[wxman57]

Wxman, IMO looks like it might be closer to the OFCI then the other ones. I think the gfdl and hwrf initialized a bit too far south. Maybe a nice blend btwn the spread and something inbtwn.

Their OFCI track is right on the BAMMS path. May be too far north, though.

[deltadog03]

Ya, I seen that... Your right prolly a bit too far north, but I think looks a bit more realistic than the further south ones. Anyway, might be for nothing if fred dosn't regenerate into something more than a swirl. BTW, is there any "real" meaning by them starting there "own" track??

[Ivanhater]

Well, the globals are seeing a stonger ridge to his north, with the wsw motion. Would be interesting to see if ex Freddy gets going a bit, if it responds to the ridge.

[Emmett_Brown]

The upper low to the east of Fred appears to be rolling W at the same speed Fred is. I would think that should keep Fred in the shear for another 18 hours or so at least. Then, assuming the low ever leaves Fred alone, Fred probably wont have time to organize much before approaching the coast. Hopefully Fred won't pull a fast one and explode in the Bahamas. Luckily conditions just don't seem favorable for that.

[wxman57]

Just checking GFDL and HWRF intensity projections, and they don't see much. GFDL takes it to 49 kts in 6 hrs then back to 29 kts 6 hours later, then hovers around the upper 20s to low 30s for 5 days. HWRF keeps it closer to 20-25 kts for 5 days.

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod/

Just looking at everything, I'd agree with the NHC that it has a better chance of dissipating than developing. Unfortunately, I don't have any say as to what the NHC decides to do when the plane confirms it does have an LLC tomorrow.

[Emmett_Brown]

Last few frames of the vis are showing a more NW motion with Fred's swirl:

[Ivanhater]