ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

712
ABNT20 KNHC 182339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

That link didnt work for me.

you have to save the file .. its a mpeg no webpage..

[Lifesgud2]

Aric,

That link didnt work for me.

you have to save the file .. its a mpeg no webpage..

Aric,

YIKES!!!! That still gives me chills when looking at that. I lived in Coral Gables when that storm came through.

[Aric Dunn]

This is my favorite one to watch... lol

it was the most ridiculous storm.. lol sometimes they just cant stay away from florida..

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/hursat/ ... 78-GOR.mpg

then there is this one.. lol
ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/hursat/ ... 32-IVA.mpg

[Emmett_Brown]

This upper level low is still keeping pace with Fred, moving W at about the same speed as Fred, and maintaining N shear. Until he can shake this, Fred is not going to intensify. However, he will probably get some space tomorrow. Tomorrow is a key day. If Fred gets some breathing room, we could be dealing with something a bit stronger. Note: Dry air is no longer a real problem, just the shear. Note the short wave in New England is pushing the ridge to the S, which is allowing an upper level high to sink ever closer to Fred, which might provide shelter from the shear:

[Emmett_Brown]

Andrew had more convection at this longitude but Katrina was still just a swirl till she got west of -70.

Hurricane Andrew Loop...

clearly in about the same spot when the ridge build in.. tracks are very similar.. as close as one could expect..anyway both at about 70 west.. just andrew was a little more organized.. ..lol

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/hursat/ ... 25-AND.mpg

Andrew was a similar system, but Andrew had a near perfect upper level environment, and he just went crazy. Not saying Fred can't intensify, but if he doesn't do so tomorrow, we can probably breath easier in FL.

[Emmett_Brown]

Latest shear; Fred heading toward a calm pocket.

[boca]

Ex Fred looks like a strand of spagehetti streched out north to south like a wave. That ULL isn't helping Fred get organized despite shear lessening.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 07, 2009091900, , BEST, 0, 262N, 682W, 30, 1011, LO

[HURAKAN]

909
WHXX01 KWBC 190034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000 090920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.2N 68.2W 26.9N 69.8W 27.2N 71.3W 27.3N 73.3W
BAMD 26.2N 68.2W 26.2N 69.7W 26.2N 70.9W 26.2N 72.0W
BAMM 26.2N 68.2W 26.6N 69.6W 26.9N 70.9W 27.2N 72.3W
LBAR 26.2N 68.2W 27.0N 69.5W 27.8N 70.4W 28.3N 71.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090921 0000 090922 0000 090923 0000 090924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.5N 75.2W 28.2N 79.2W 29.0N 83.2W 29.2N 87.2W
BAMD 26.3N 73.1W 26.5N 75.4W 26.5N 78.5W 26.0N 81.7W
BAMM 27.5N 73.6W 28.2N 76.7W 29.0N 79.9W 29.1N 82.3W
LBAR 28.9N 71.9W 29.8N 72.8W 31.0N 74.0W 31.8N 74.2W
SHIP 47KTS 52KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 47KTS 52KTS 43KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 68.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 66.0W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 24.9N LONM24 = 63.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Bocadude85]

Will be interesting to see if Fred can survive the shear.... looks a mess right now.

[boca]

Based on the latest sat presentation it looks like Fred is dead.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[jaxfladude]

Will be interesting to see if Fred can survive the shear.... looks a mess right now.

Based on the latest sat presentation it looks like Fred is dead.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Finally and for good and it is about time to lock this thread.

Fingers crossed.

[boca]

I give Ex Fred credit it made it from 37w to 68w as a naked swirl for most part.

[gatorcane]

I don't think Fred is dead. In fact I expect the pulsing of convection to continue (now we are on a down pulse). I expect a blob to blow up later on tonight closer to the surface low. When I look at shortwave IR, I see a pretty distinct circulation (you can't see it on IR).....upper-level winds are on the decrease also and will be favorable by tomorrow. Dry air is not an issue.

Plus, Fred just never seems to want to die. Just when you think he is dead, he comes back to life. I think that he has another one of those in store later on tonight and into tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

If you look at the loops, the LLC is still there.

[boca]

I'm not on my home computer right now.This computer at work has nothing loaded on it.I can only look at still shots.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think Fred is dead. In fact I expect the pulsing of convection to continue (now we are on a down pulse). I expect a blob to blow up later on tonight closer to the surface low. When I look at shortwave IR, I see a pretty distinct circulation (you can't see it on IR).....upper-level winds are on the decrease also and will be favorable by tomorrow. Dry air is not an issue.

Plus, Fred just never seems to want to die. Just when you think he is dead, he comes back to life. I think that he has another one of those in store later on tonight and into tomorrow.

If you look at the loops, the LLC is still there.

yeah the circulation is still very well defined. shows up very well on shortwave..

[boca]

I don't think Fred is dead. In fact I expect the pulsing of convection to continue (now we are on a down pulse). I expect a blob to blow up later on tonight closer to the surface low. When I look at shortwave IR, I see a pretty distinct circulation (you can't see it on IR).....upper-level winds are on the decrease also and will be favorable by tomorrow. Dry air is not an issue.

Plus, Fred just never seems to want to die. Just when you think he is dead, he comes back to life. I think that he has another one of those in store later on tonight and into tomorrow.

If you look at the loops, the LLC is still there.

yeah the circulation is still very well defined. shows up very well on shortwave..

Since I can't look at loops which way is Fred heading west or WNW?

[tolakram]