ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[leanne_uk]

he is definately not given up on the fight. I know its been a storm that just wont die but i have seriously enjoyed watching how its reacted to the conditions since it was no longer a cane. Its always good to learn new things

[jlauderdal]

Also note the storms just to the north of the llc. Those are not being blown off nearly as much yesterday as well. Storms around and just to the north of the llc are starting to fire as well. Why am I up so early, who knows....

shear was forecast to lessen and sure enough the satellite presentation of fred would lead us to believe that has happened, we dont like shear forecasts anyway so we need to see results and we are getting it

wait until gatorcane gets a look

[Nimbus]

The shear seems to be from the north but convection has moved back over the LLC this morning. Should be a busy thread today, I wish this thing were closer to Florida so it didn't have time to develop.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yup, the shear does seem to be lessening. The next few frames should be interesting, as will the first visibles. The center appears to be near 26.4N (my guess from the IR), so it has gained a slight bit of latitude since yesterday. GFDL and HWRF don't show development, and also show a more W/SW component of motion starting tonight as the ridge builds in from the N. Will Fred follow the Bams to central and N FL, or will he visit SFL and the keys ala GFDL?

All in all, considering this has been a torture-fest of swirl tracking, today might be an interesting day.

[caneman]

Beginning to look concerning. Storms appear to be consolidating.

[Emmett_Brown]

Burst still expanding, and sticking:

[caneman]

Possible rapid developer.

[xironman]

Looks better on the first visible.

[boca]

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
LATEST MODELS RUN (GFS AND EMCWF) AS TO THE WAY THERE ARE HANDLING
THE REMNANTS OF FRED. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOT ONLY SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE, BUT ALSO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT TAKING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS.

This is from Miami NWS.

[Blown Away]

LTST GLOBAL GUID CONTINUES TO INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND BECOMING CUTOFF OVER THE
PLAINS AROUND TUE. PREFER ECMWF SOLN ATTM DUE TO LARGE RETROGRESSION
TO THE SWRN US AS INDICATED BY LTST 00Z GFS. WHEREAS 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES PREVIOUS CONSENSUS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. FEATURE WL
AMPLIFY PRE-EXISTING DLM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE WITH REMNANTS OF TC FRED PASSING S FL AND
THE STRAITS ON TUE...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WL REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE OVERALL GIVEN LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. TEMPS NEAR 90 WEST
OF I-95 EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CENTRAL CONUS
CUTOFF LOOKS TO OPEN AS A WAVE AND BECOME PICKED UP TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES OVER NEXT WEEKEND PRODUCING PATTERN CHANGE TO LOWER
HGHTS EAST OF THE MS VALLEY AND THUS AN EVENTUAL HIGHER RAIN
CHANCE FOR THE AREA.

Latest from NWS Melbourne.

[gatorcane]

Indeed as I suspected from yesterday evening, it would blow up with convection.....late last night and now as it is doing (despite how bad it looked last night). Following my forecast pretty closely. Now question is where does it go...checking synoptics again now.

This thing could be up at orange at 8amEST.
Fred is not dead.

[gatorcane]

Yup, the shear does seem to be lessening. The next few frames should be interesting, as will the first visibles. The center appears to be near 26.4N (my guess from the IR), so it has gained a slight bit of latitude since yesterday. GFDL and HWRF don't show development, and also show a more W/SW component of motion starting tonight as the ridge builds in from the N. Will Fred follow the Bams to central and N FL, or will he visit SFL and the keys ala GFDL?

All in all, considering this has been a torture-fest of swirl tracking, today might be an interesting day.

I agree I really want to see this blowup of convection die-off this AM. You can see shear is alot lower now than this time yesterday since the cloud tops are now blowing off rapidly to the south. Should it maintain, it could spin up pretty quickly with very high SSTs its headed for and lower upper-level winds. No dry air anymore to keep it in check.

Anybody know if that blow-up is under the low pressure center? Looks like maybe it is to the south of it, buts it tough to tell without visibles

[wxman57]

I'm going find a big can of Raid...

[gatorcane]

code yellow still:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

[Emmett_Brown]

code yellow still:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

Funny, the wording of

"THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON."

sounds more orange to me, but Yellow it remains.

[ronjon]

Don't get much better model consensus this this - looks Florida bound. Now the big question, a weak low or tropical cyclone?

[crownweather]

I have a feeling NHC wants to see if the current convection persists before upgrading to orange or red.

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm going find a big can of Raid...

Cool. Send it over to recon and see if they can deploy it for you during their flight later today...

[ronjon]

From the shortwave IR SAT, the LLC is tucked under the deep convection near 26.4N-69.5W. The LLC is about 1/4 down from the northern edge of the convective blob. Might see some development today with the center under the deep convection. Movement appears pretty much due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

[jpigott]

I guess it's safe to say NWS Miami and NWS Melbourne don't see eye to eye on where this goes