Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 182055
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAINLY BETWEEN ST CROIX AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT NEAR 21N 59W PROGRESSING
WESTWARD WILL SLOW DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING AND EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

AT LOW LEVEL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AFFECTING SOME OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME (300 PM LOCAL TIME). THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT
30 MINUTES OR SO...AND MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BEFORE
IT DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY TO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS INCLUDING CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MORNING HOURS
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MAY BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO SHIFT FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THEN
EAST SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER STEEP TERRAINS.


MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL FEATURE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO TO FIVE DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL 21Z OVER TJMZ...VC TJPS
AND MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH +TSRA. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING CLOUD TOPS UP TO 60K FEET OVER TJMZ WITH EXTREMELY INTENSE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THAT SITE AND CENTRAL PR.
AFTERWARDS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 89 / 20 30 30 40
STT 78 88 79 88 / 20 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

93/17

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends We should continue to look to our east as Invest 98L is progressing westward. Elsewhere the Lesser Antilles are relativel quiet, showers and isolated tstorms are expected today in Guadeloupe due to the weak trade winds, nothing to kill a cat but stay vigilant as usual.

On the extreme east, 98L continue to showing signs of slow development...while the Lesser Antilles are pretty quiet

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 190901
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM
TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY...WITH A MAINLY EAST WIND OF 15 TO
20 MPH.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190659
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND HELP
CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MORE EASTERLY THAN LATEST
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SO WENT AHEAD AND SHADED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
REFLECT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DAILY DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DAYTIME
HEATING...TO BRING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 41W THAT HAS BEEN GIVEN A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD...AND LIKELY EVENTUALLY PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS TO SPEAK OF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
DEVELOPING MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ...BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 77 / 20 20 40 40
STT 88 79 88 78 / 40 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

$$

06/04

[Gustywind]

98L




Latest positions:
Given from http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html

Tropical Disturbance Summary
Invest #98
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 13.2N Lon: 41.9W Moving: W 17 mph (15 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)

Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
0600 SAT SEP 19 13.2N 41.9W W 17 (15) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
0000 SAT SEP 19 13.1N 40.4W WNW 6 (5) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)

From SSD:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Atlantic Ocean Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/0600 UTC 13.0N 41.3W T2.0/2.0 98L

From NRL site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
20090919.1115.98LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-132N-419W.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Code Red
98L is on a increasing trend: reaching red code. We shoud keep an eye on this feature as usual in the peak of the season...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[msbee]

computer models have it going north of the islands. Not that I trust the computer models at this point, but let's hope they are right.

[jedsshed]

Hey msbee,

I can see you being rained on from my veranda and am happy to announce that we received a rogue shower or two so far this morning. I haven’t looked at the rain gauge yet, but I would guess less than 0.1 inches.

As for Invest 98L, if it stays south of 15N by the time it reaches 50W, it will be time to double check the water supply and the generator fuel supply don’t you think?

[msbee]

Hi jed
yes,we got some showers here too.
I agree..not much though.
nice and sunny now.
yes, if 98 is still south by that time, we will have to start preparing.
Unfortunately I am off island from tomorrow so that will be up to my husband.
Barbara

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 19, 2009 11:12 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
In the Atlantic, 3 tropical disturbances are being watched.

The remnants of Fred are located around 475 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas, moving slowly west-northwest.

Some thunderstorms continue to flare with Fred and an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is investigating this system this afternoon.

Further east, a low pressure area is located halfway between Africa and the Leeward islands.

Persistent showers and thunderstorms are occurring with this system, as it moves west-northwest. It will continue to be monitored and development into a tropical depression is possible.

In the far eastern Atlantic to the northeast of the Cape Verde Islands, another area of low pressure and thunderstorms could organize a little further before moving into cooler waters.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324

Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:41 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized


Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown of modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical repression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

[tanguy97]

Why Stormpulse is giving the center lacation at 8 AM to 11.4 N 44 W instead of 13.2N 41.8 W ?

[Gustywind]

Why Stormpulse is giving the center lacation at 8 AM to 11.4 N 44 W instead of 13.2N 41.8 W ?

First Stormpulse is not an official site...so don't be surprised by that. Second it could be a mistake?! Third wait for the TWD of the NHC to be sure of the latest position Tanguy.

[Gustywind]

Showers and isolated tstorms are doting my area. Thunder is rumbling nicely. Winds are blowing in small gusts. Weather is grey and overcast.

[msbee]

same here Gusty

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS LOCATED
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION
SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

same here Gusty

Tkanks msbee , looks like the weak trade winds are allowing these showers and tstorms to pop a bit...Hopefully shear is strong and should not bring much more...Off topic let's continue to keep an eye on 98L in case of, even if development has weakned just a bit given the latest TWO.