ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

It would be named TD Fred, and not TD8 or TD9, correct?

I think it should be Fred

[Stephanie]

have restarted the satellite floater on Fred. The first image should be in and new images should be coming in every 30 minutes

Thanks Derek.

[Steve H.]

Fred looks narrow and elongated. Shear still knocking the convection down from the NE. Will the CLP5 pull a coup and send him out to sea with the departing trough? Probably not, but ridge building from the north may not give him the best conditions at UL either. I believe he's really struggling right now, but if he lives through tonight he might be the stronger for it.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, Fred is looking stretched again. LLC is not obvious and tight like yesterday. Wxman's raid blast may have worked, hard to tell until the convection blows off the rest of the way.

[breeze]

Did I just see a jog to the SW, or are my eyes playing tricks?

[perk]

Well, Fred is looking stretched again. LLC is not obvious and tight like yesterday. Wxman's raid blast may have worked, hard to tell until the convection blows off the rest of the way.

I'm inclined to wait for a better visible loop.I don't see how we can make an informed analysis until we get one.

[jlauderdal]

Did I just see a jog to the SW, or are my eyes playing tricks?

wobble watcher

[breeze]

I've been accused of worse...

[jinftl]

A wsw component to the movement is not out of the question in the next few days....

Did I just see a jog to the SW, or are my eyes playing tricks?

[wzrgirl1]

This has definitely sparked my interest with it being so close to home. Especially if it slows down as it seems like it may do. Always need to keep an eye on these things during this time of the year.

[jlauderdal]

I get some too because I posted a week or so ago that it was a fish for sure and I was only going to have one post about it so lets get this out of the way right now and move forward.

[wzrgirl1]

Looks like anywhere from central florida southward. I guess most models are picking up on a high pressure building in the next couple of days. The question is strength. Always the hardest to forecast.

[srainhoutx]

[jlauderdal]

I guess it's safe to say NWS Miami and NWS Melbourne don't see eye to eye on where this goes

Yea, that is pretty funny. The reasoning is because the GFS shows deep troughing over the east coast again while the other models show high pressure building in. I guess it comes down to which model they believe in.

im not sure what Miami is seeing but key west likes the south florida idea, they dont slow it down either and in fact open up the possibility of it moving a little faster but i suppose if you are going with a building ridge idea then that accounts for an increase in speed or at least no slowdown and if you go with a NW turn idea on an eroding ridge than of course we know the systems tend to slow down before a turn, seems strange and I would expect them all to be on the same page by this afternoon after some communication, of course NHC is right down the hall from NWS so we should have agreement by this afternoon especially after some recon which I fully expect

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE REMNANTS OF FRED SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS AN OPEN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFICULT. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NOT DECREASED MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FRED MAY
MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY...THE
REMNANTS OF FRED WILL GET TO SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME EITHER MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

[jlauderdal]

A wsw component to the movement is not out of the question in the next few days....

Did I just see a jog to the SW, or are my eyes playing tricks?

yeah, right at about 26.2 N

[MortisFL]

lauderdale, you are guaranteed an isolated sprinkle =)

[CajunMama]

I'm going find a big can of Raid...

I'll pack some tonight. I'm heading to the Bahamas tomorrow....

I know it's a chance you take when you book trips there during this time of the year....

I hope Fredex doesn't put a damper on your trip. Have fun.

[alienstorm]

Looking at High Resolution Visible it looks like it's open up totally and no longer seems to be a low - looks like it finally has dissappated.

[Thunder44]

Flight for today has been cancelled. And no more are scheduled:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.

[jlauderdal]

lauderdale, you are guaranteed an isolated sprinkle =)

if it develops and i get out there and start my generator like i did for ike it stands no chance of coming here