ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[perk]

Looking at High Resolution Visible it looks like it's open up totally and no longer seems to be a low - looks like it finally has dissappated.

I totally disagree.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at High Resolution Visible it looks like it's open up totally and no longer seems to be a low - looks like it finally has dissappated.

I don't think it has dissipated, but it sure has opened up and elongated. I saw the quikscats which indeed do indicate a closed system with some decent winds associated with it, but...? Convection appears to be waning some also. EX-Fred is still fighting, but IMO he may be on the losing end of the fight today. Is there something I'm not realizing that could help him to regenerate?

[vbhoutex]

Looking at High Resolution Visible it looks like it's open up totally and no longer seems to be a low - looks like it finally has dissappated.

I totally disagree.

Tell us why you disagree. What do you see?

[srainhoutx]

I guess it's safe to say NWS Miami and NWS Melbourne don't see eye to eye on where this goes

Yea, that is pretty funny. The reasoning is because the GFS shows deep troughing over the east coast again while the other models show high pressure building in. I guess it comes down to which model they believe in.

im not sure what Miami is seeing but key west likes the south florida idea, they dont slow it down either and in fact open up the possibility of it moving a little faster but i suppose if you are going with a building ridge idea then that accounts for an increase in speed or at least no slowdown and if you go with a NW turn idea on an eroding ridge than of course we know the systems tend to slow down before a turn, seems strange and I would expect them all to be on the same page by this afternoon after some communication, of course NHC is right down the hall from NWS so we should have agreement by this afternoon especially after some recon which I fully expect

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE REMNANTS OF FRED SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS AN OPEN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFICULT. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE NOT DECREASED MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF FRED MAY
MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY...THE
REMNANTS OF FRED WILL GET TO SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME EITHER MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

The NWS Key West folks are pretty sharp forecasters. With NHC now cancelling RECON, perhaps they were on to something earlier this morning.

[artist]

Anyone else having problems bringing up the SFWMD site and its track model images? Keeps giving me a Page Not Found; 404 error.

yeah, same was happening yestereday. When I ping it I get this -
Warning: fsockopen() [function.fsockopen]: unable to connect to whois.dotgov.gov:43 (Connection refused) in /home/dnstools/public_html/whois.php on line 69

but the message is different today when I try to open the page, so maybe they are working on it.

[perk]

Looking at High Resolution Visible it looks like it's open up totally and no longer seems to be a low - looks like it finally has dissappated.

I totally disagree.

Tell us why you disagree. What do you see?

It's simple look at the visible.The circulation is clearly there.

[xironman]

This is where I see the llc in the visible, probably a bit different from most

[vbhoutex]

I know the circulation is there, but it is very elongated N-S, not a tight circulation that would suggest a system that is organizing, especially after the tight LLCC that was present yesterday. With convection also appearing to be decreasing, I have to go with it will be a tough row to hoe for Ex-Fed to regen. Quikscat also showed SWerly shear out ahead of the system which surely won't help. JMHO Who knows, I may be borrowing some of jlauderdals crow later.

[Emmett_Brown]

This is where I see the llc in the visible, probably a bit different from most

I agree that this is the most likely center. Since it is elongated N to S, it is hard to say, but thats where my eye goes first. The convection to the south is dissipating, and as soon as it clears, we should know for sure.

[xironman]

:uarrow: I know the circulation is there, but it is very elongated N-S, not a tight circulation that would suggest a system that is organizing, especially after the tight LLCC that was present yesterday. With convection also appearing to be decreasing, I have to go with it will be a tough row to hoe for Ex-Fed to regen. Quikscat also showed SWerly shear out ahead of the system which surely won't help. JMHO Who knows, I may be borrowing some of jlauderdals crow later.

Absolutely, I was just saying that it looks a bit north of 27N as opposed to 26N which is where I thought the models had it.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just playing guess where the center is... my guess is 27.5N, 69.5W. Movement almost stationary over the past 2 hours... and that is just a guess...

[xironman]

You would think that if it could slip past 70W that it could get out of its current mid level shear nightmare.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324
Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:50 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

[perk]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324
Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:50 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

I think recon was cancelled.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, Fred appears to be on the edge of disappearing into oblivion for good. The only sign of life is new convection in the northern quadrant. I don't see a clear LLC, but one could be reforming in the northern half of the disturbance. With recon being cancelled, and Fred looking so paltry on sat images, I can see why it is quiet in here all of the sudden.

Come on Fred, don't quit now, you have come too far, and I have wasted too much time this week watching you... it shouldn't end this way...

[caneman]

Big change from this morning when it appeared to be coming together. ex-Fred needs to just die off and get it over with.

[Sanibel]

I don't see anything from this either.


I don't see it moving towards Florida even.


Just another 2009 sheared nothing.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say its looking pretty bad right now.. the well defined circ is gone and the rest of it is elongated. the trough that is lifting out stretched out little friend... the end may be near..

[breeze]

After all that Fred has been through....all it took to kill him was a can of Raid...

[hurricanetrack]

Finally! And just when the GFS showed it the strongest in any of its most recent runs too. Too little, too late. May be an increase in rain chances for the SE coast but that's about it. Time to start looking ahead to conditions for the 2010 season. At least we will know months in advance from models like the ECMWF which had this season pegged spot on. Perhaps it will show a different set of conditions for next season.