ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Blown Away]

[ozonepete]

Pressure near what's left of Fred's LLC (not much there) are now 1016mb and rising. I don't think it'll recover this time. Southwesterly wind shear starts in another degree or two to the west-northwest. Hopefully, all that's left by morning is a little low-level vorticity.

Wow! 1016mb - I thought that was HIGH pressure...

[Macrocane]

I love tropical cyclones (I love them not the destruction that they can do), and as a tropical cyclone lover I have been expecting Fred to develop but now I really want Fred to die, I can't stand it anymore. When you think that it will die a new burst of convection appears and when you think it will develop then it gets naked again.

[breeze]

Good work, wxman57 - I'd say that must be pretty effective stuff!

[ozonepete]

Pressure near what's left of Fred's LLC (not much there) are now 1016mb and rising. I don't think it'll recover this time. Southwesterly wind shear starts in another degree or two to the west-northwest. Hopefully, all that's left by morning is a little low-level vorticity.

Actually, you shouldn't have said that wxman57. Every time anyone says that, he starts back up again. Just get out the Raid and stand by...

[fci]

Blown_away while we watch Fred fall aprt again check out the 18GFS run at 348hrs in their latest fantasy storm in the W Caribbean.

348 is over Cuba and 384 is over SFL! Time of the year is right so let's see if future runs keep developing this system.

I'm warning our clients there right away. Never known the 18Z 384hr map to be wrong...

Shutters are up.
I'm ready!!!!

[Blown Away]

Zoom in on the visible loop and I think I see the mostly naked LLC near 28N / 71W moving just N of due W. That convection to the NE is removed from the LLC but I think is part of the circulation. The dying cockroach convection blob to the S is is far removed from the LLC and will dissipate. If Fred comes back the convection should fire near 28N / 71W.
Zoom in near 28N / 71W on the visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Bottom line I think the LLC is still there, but Fred is naked!

[ozonepete]

Bottom line I think the LLC is still there, but Fred is naked!

...naked again


(and I agree with your analysis - think it's on the money)

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmmmm, pretty quiet in here this morning. Oh well, I think Fred is still there. Doesn't look very good, and with all the shear and Raid fumes from Houston out there, it probably no longer matters, but the LLC still exists. Here is a recent QScat:

[Blown Away]

Nice LLC but so much for shear easing up. I think Fred would develop if there wasn't the strong shear.

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is the first visible. Looks to be centered at 28N 71.5W. Badly sheared from the NW.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Blown Away]

Here is the first visible. Looks to be centered at 28N 71.5W. Badly sheared from the NW.

Convection firing on the LLC, but being badly sheared.

[Blown Away]

Maybe over the past hour the shear from the W has eased just a little?

[artist]

sfwmd has changed their site up and here is the new address for the model plots -


https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... ab21260387

[artist]

oh, and they have awesome new storm windfield animations as well.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... ab21266288

just thought I would mention you really need to check out the link above as they have some fabulous new features, radar with satellite, wind fields with loops, storm motion (even with ex-Fred), etc. and the loops are done in flash mode so they load immediately. It is awesome.
Now back to ex-Fred!

[Emmett_Brown]

Shear has actually been increasing instead of decreasing. (GFS, once again wrong)

[HURAKAN]

I'm already getting tired of Fred's remnants.

[artist]

and Reconnaissance maps!

[wxman57]

Visible imagery and surface obs put the center farther north, near 28.9N/71.7W. Note how all the convection shifted from S-SW of the center to NE of the center overnight. That's because it's moving into moderate SW flow aloft (SW shear) now. This flow can be easily seen on a WV loop. May not be much of Fred left to reach the East U.S. I see new model data out, starting out 20 kts now. Bye, Fred.