Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N45W
MOVING TO THE WNW NEAR 9 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-49W. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa

[Gustywind]

Latest observations from Guadeloupe. Have a good day all!

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at Sep 20, 2009 - 08:06 AM EDTSep 20, 2009 -
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly clear
Weather Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)

[jedsshed]

A little past 3 yesterday afternoon, the rain gauge indicated 1/2". After late afternoon and evening downpours, the gauge this morning is showing 1.4"

That will certainly help out the dry cisterns around here!

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2009

PRC021-051-061-127-135-137-139-143-201645-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0279.090920T1355Z-090920T1645Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
955 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 1245 PM AST

* AT 950 AM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN BAYAMON AND SOUTHERN
DORADO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA WERE AROUND 1 INCH. AT
LEAST THROUGH 1245 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1244 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2009

PRC021-029-031-033-061-087-119-127-137-139-201945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0281.090920T1644Z-090920T1945Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1244 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 1240 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAROLINA AND LOIZA WEST NORTHWESTWARD TO
BAYAMON AND CATANO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 345 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR
MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

98L
Code Yellow

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE RESIDES IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CIMSS
WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT THIS RELATIVE
VORTICITY STRETCHES FROM NE OF A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 16N46W EWD TO
24W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS PLACED IN THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME
AND IS BASED MORE ON EXTRAPOLATION. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 8N30W 11N35W 12N41W
11N49W 10N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF
FROM 27N83W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
86W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE GULF CENTERED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. ACROSS THE SW GULF...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 24N W OF 90W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE W OF 89W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N105W. OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS UNDER LIGHT ELY SURFACE
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS
FARTHER SOUTH FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 80W-89W. ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE DUE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 13N84W TO 9N76W. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...PRIMARILY E OF 74W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N59W. CONDITIONS
REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE MAIN AXIS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE LOCATED ALOFT OVER THE ERN MOST GREATER ANTILLES.
FARTHER TO THE SE...A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC N OF 24N W OF
78W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS TO
27N73W AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINKS UP WITH A LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC...N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N65W EXTENDING ALONG 31N TO 80W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 31N70W THROUGH A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N71W TO NEAR
25N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF THE COLD FRONT AND
COVER THE AREA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 60W-72W. FARTHER TO THE
SE...ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N62W TO
27N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
25N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 60W-66W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N46W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING THE AREA NE OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 37W-45W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N41W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 34W-43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATES THE NE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N27W. MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 28W ACROSS THE ERN ATLC AND IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATED OR MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATER AND LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE ON MOISTURE A
SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WATER JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

The invest that was east of the Lesser Antilles is now gone.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200909210034
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Gustywind]

And that's good news for us Cycloneye ...even if September continues to be relatively quiet for the moment:eek:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2009

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OR DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

THE AFTERNOON HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PUERTO RICO CAUSED RIVERS...STREAMS
AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST... NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND TO QUICKLY RISE DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE RIO CULEBRINAS
FINALLY GOING OUT OF IT BANKS AND FLOODING PARTS OF ROAD 418 SECTOR
COLOSO...BASED ON OFFICIAL REPORTS FROM THE LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS.

MEANWHILE...THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING
OFFSHORE AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS. SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THESE ISLANDS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TO CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND FAIRLY MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THEREFORE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
WHICH HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DID HOWEVER ADJUST THE POPS VS WX SHORT TERM GRIDS FOR
CONSISTENCY AND UPDATED THE LONG TERM WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE.

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends How are you? In shape this morning? We hope that...because the TENT is here to give you joy, hapinness, humor and especially many infos from our members in the carib islands 98L has weakned and no active system seems to pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles. But as usual, we continue to monitor any suspicious twave to our east!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210813 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST MON SEP 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NEAR 24N 60W WITH AXIS OVR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A PATTERN OF BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS...H5 LOW OVR THE MONA PASSAGE WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY
RAINS YESTERDAY IS STILL OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WWD INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
EVENING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT TO FUEL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
AND FLASH FLOODING. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PEAK DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE WATCH WAS BASED
ON SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST...RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE LED STREAMS
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND RUNNING HIGH AND LESS RAINFALL
WILL TAKE FOR THE STREAMS TO RESPOND AND GO ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS.
SECOND...WRF-NMM MODEL WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS PRETTY WELL WITH
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAMMERS THE ERN PORTION OF THE
ISLAND TODAY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS

NOT AS WET TUE AND WED AS MID-LVL TROUGH WEAKENS AND ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT A BIT. BY THU....MOST MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND
STRENGHTENING SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT LOWERS TO 750MB IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST AND TISX FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING 08Z THROUGH 16Z. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
VCSH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND TJPS AND TJSJ WITH BEFORE NOON.
AFTERWARD...TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL BRIEFLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
18Z TO 22Z...AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND HEED ANY WARNINGS IF ISSUED. TSTMS SOUTH OF PONCE
REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF SMWS FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS AS DOPPLER
VELOCITY INDICATED NICE VELOCITY COUPLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 50 40 60 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 40 40 50 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST.

VI...NONE.
&&

$$

17/64

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 210915
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON SEP 21 2009

THE REGION WAS AFFECTED BY HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH...A HEAVY SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM PAST ACROSS SAINT THOMAS...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE
ISLAND AROUND 400 AM AST. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID MORNING AND
INTENSIFYING BY AFTERNOON TIME.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT
WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

$$

[Gustywind]

What's up near the islands?

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 AM AST MON SEP 21 2009

PRZ001>006-211615-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0012.090921T0807Z-090921T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA
407 AM AST MON SEP 21 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL INTERIOR...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY AND SOUTHEAST.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN
STREAMS REMAINING HIGH AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

* FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1209 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

PRC021-031-033-061-127-137-139-211900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0285.090921T1609Z-090921T1900Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1209 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN
JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 1203 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND CATANO.
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
AT LEAST THROUGH 300 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.