ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Emmett_Brown]

Still popping, kind of bubbling/simmering. Not in a hurry to develop, but looking gradually more suspicious:

[Emmett_Brown]

I am just about ready to dare TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L) to do it's thing now! I can not take anymore of this

No doubt. I couldn't agree more. It's show time!

[IvanSurvivor]

I am just about ready to dare TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L) to do it's thing now! I can not take anymore of this

Take it back... now look what you've done. Just kidding.

[Evil Jeremy]

The fact that we are still talking about Fred almost 10 days after the NHC shut down advisories is a miracle lol.

[Blown Away]

Still popping, kind of bubbling/simmering. Not in a hurry to develop, but looking gradually more suspicious:

Well tonight will be the night, there is no convection where the low has been positioned, so if the current convection hundreds of miles to the SE fades and does not become the new low I think I will be officially done w/ Fred.

[breeze]

I can just imagine all of the Fred jokes at NHC when changing shifts...lol...I'm sure they're sick
of this, too!

[LarryWx]

We've just reached the 24 hour point from when convection first blossomed last night. Happy anniversary! Since then there has at least been a little convection just about the entire time.

[ozonepete]

We've just reached the 24 hour point from when convection first blossomed last night. Happy anniversary! Since then there has at least been a little convection just about the entire time.

great point. I didn't realize it was that long. Persistence is everything.

[DeanDaDream]

[img]http://winterlingwatch.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/2009-09-21_184423.png?w=499&h=412/img]
Fortunately, Fred is no longer a hurricane or tropical storm. Conditions do not favor redevelopment, but heavy downpours are expected near and to the north of where the low center crosses the coast Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Channel 4’s senior meteorologist John Gaughan

[ozonepete]

The fact that we are still talking about Fred almost 10 days after the NHC shut down advisories is a miracle lol.

yeah, and it's been a lot of fun and we're learning techniques for the next ones. If anything signficant happens tomorrow, what we learned will be even more important.

[Blown Away]

Fortunately, Fred is no longer a hurricane or tropical storm. Conditions do not favor redevelopment, but heavy downpours are expected near and to the north of where the low center crosses the coast Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Awesome map! IF a new low develops near the recent convection I think there is a decent chance we could get Fred back, I think the chances are low but better if the low relocates under the convection.

[tolakram]

It's a mess

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I think the so called presentation is just the tops being blown around and off.

[ozonepete]

Hey Blown_away, your contention that the center may be in or near that biggest ball of convection may turn out to be right. It sure looks like it on these "night satellites". But I still think it's to the NNW of there. There's still some northwesterly shear on the northern semicircle pushing the thunderstorms away from where the center seems to be trying to form. But we'll just have to wait until tomorrow to find out what's really going on.

[BigA]

It's a mess

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I think the so called presentation is just the tops being blown around and off.

Agreed that the streaks to the north of the MLC are mainly shear induced, but the MLC itself looks to be in relatively low shear conditions.

[Blown Away]

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly, but it appears the TPC has this wave dropping WSW and crossing the southern half of Florida.

[ozonepete]

DeanDaDream's map, although I would say not exact, shows the whole scenario really well. A cool Canadian air mass has settled into the northeast and stretched even further into the upper souteast and is now merging with the building Bermuda High. The Fred remnant low (or whatever it is) is on the border of where these two air masses are conjoining. That often means a subtropical or hybrid system will develop, where some cool dry air gets pulled in but there's still a basically tropical warm core low at the center. The difference in temperatures between the tropical low and the cooler air to the north creates a hybrid between a truly tropical cyclone and a mid-latitude cold season low (Baroclinic as opposed to barotropic). Of course many times these eventually become purely tropical. Just wanted to mention it as a possibility, because the two highs have not merged completely yet, and i wouldn't call the air ahead of this system truly tropical yet (look at the low 60s dewpoints on the SC coast.)

[deltadog03]

Game Set Match.........adios mr. long tracking swirl.....

[ozonepete]

Game Set Match.........adios mr. long tracking swirl.....

Low's still on the HPC surface analysis... Matter of fact, dropped back again from 1018 to 1017mb.

[cycloneye]

This system has been analized a ton by members,in comparison,not a lot from the pro mets.Aric and ozonepete haved done a great job of pinpointing all the factors in favor and against for the system to redevelop or not since the last advisory on Fred was written and I say to them that they have a great future in the camp of meteorlogy.Having said the above,I see the final epilog to the final chapter of this very looong journey that started on September 6.

[Blown Away]

Game Set Match.........adios mr. long tracking swirl.....

Fred thinks you have stepped over the line and may jam a tennis ball down your throat. j/k


Just in case:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=r ... ns&print=1