ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Shewtinstar]

I only have a few mins. Hubby called last night and the news talked about a stall might happen. Has any one heard this one? Got to go Bye. Be in NC at 4 pm

No stalling. Fred's remnant storms move into FL/GA tomorrow. Just a bit more rain for the southeast, that's it.

From what I am seeing on the visible loop is Ex-Fred is moving SW, still showing some spin action. Is this system going to start heading N or NW to make it to GA?

[wxman57]

From what I am seeing on the visible loop is Ex-Fred is moving SW, still showing some spin action. Is this system going to start heading N or NW to make it to GA?

Ex-Fred isn't a point, it is a wave axis that extends from near the NC coast, southward along about 79W to east of the central Florida Peninsula. The wave axis is moving westward. Some of Fred's storms are already moving ashore into SC/NC this morning. Another pocket of storms east of the wave axis will be moving into FL/GA tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

From what I am seeing on the visible loop is Ex-Fred is moving SW, still showing some spin action. Is this system going to start heading N or NW to make it to GA?

Ex-Fred isn't a point, it is a wave axis that extends from near the NC coast, southward along about 79W to east of the central Florida Peninsula. The wave axis is moving westward. Some of Fred's storms are already moving ashore into SC/NC this morning. Another pocket of storms east of the wave axis will be moving into FL/GA tomorrow.

Yeah, that's all I see. Looks completely inconsequential to me today. The NHC in their 8AM Tropical Weather Discussion actually says there's a "weakening" 1018mb low near 31N76W, but if there is, I don't see it. Basically, as you said, wxman, there's just an area of disturbed weather/convection associated with a weak trough stretching from the Carolinas to north of Cuba.

[emeraldislencguy]

we had heavy tropical rain last night and today is very muggy feeeling reminds me when a storm is off our coast. You can really fell the moisture in the air--and it is getting cloudy again and looks like more rain is on the way--I agree it is a wave that is from the nc coast to florida.

[breeze]

I've really learned quite a bit from following Fred and his remnants with all of you - thanks
for sharing your knowledge!

[ozonepete]

I've really learned quite a bit from following Fred and his remnants with all of you - thanks
for sharing your knowledge!

Thank you, too. I thoroughly enjoyed it.

[IvanSurvivor]

Is the little blob over Cuba part of the trough...ex Fred...or something totally separate? Is that what was part of the dicussion I posted earlier that will be moving through the Florida Straits?

[ozonepete]

BTW, I would say Fred really did make it all the way to the U.S. afterall. If you're on the Carolina coast, especially Charleston, enjoy it. I can see a closed LLC spinning again and clusters of developing thunderstorms will be moving ashore soon. Check out these excerpts from the Charleston NWS afternoon discussion:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED...WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO BUCKLE ALONG ITS EASTERN EDGE AS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC DRAWS CLOSER. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ROUGHLY AROUND 31N/77W. LOOKS LIKE THE NAM INITIATED THE LOW...THE SHARPNESS OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST AND WILL BE USED AS THE PRIMARY MODEL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE
MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE INLAND PROGRESSION BEYOND I-95 OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE RISK FOR RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVES REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. TOUGH CALL ON EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAINS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A DEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST MOISTURE TAP ATOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST SUGGEST
KEEPING AT LEAST 40-50 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE THERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY...

[ozonepete]

Is the little blob over Cuba part of the trough...ex Fred...or something totally separate? Is that what was part of the dicussion I posted earlier that will be moving through the Florida Straits?

That's totally separate, IvanSurvivor. Those thunderstorms were triggered by a separate upper level trough.

[IvanSurvivor]

Is the little blob over Cuba part of the trough...ex Fred...or something totally separate? Is that what was part of the dicussion I posted earlier that will be moving through the Florida Straits?

That's totally separate, IvanSurvivor. Those thunderstorms were triggered by a separate upper level trough.

Thanks!

[Emmett_Brown]

Nice little blowup of storms off shore of NE FL along the wave axis:

[Sanibel]

As usual, I nailed the track towards Florida reasoning 2 months ago only there wasn't any cyclone associated with it except a remnant puff.

[AdamFirst]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That poof of convection is slowly moving west-southwest...

[IvanSurvivor]

Seems rather "poofy" now as compared to earlier and does appear to be moving WSW, but I don't know anything

Are any of the blobs in the Caribbean a concern or something to watch?

Where is the best place to find out the pressure of a blob or if there is rotation with it?

[ozonepete]

Well tomorrow we can put Fred to rest, although wxman57 once said in this thread that it would probably come onshore and then continue to the west coast! lol. The HPC now has it as a 1016mb low approaching the GA/SC border. It should bring a pretty good amount of rain into the SE coast from northern Fl to NC, especially SC it looks like. BTW, wxman57, I saw what you posted earlier about the HPC putting an L on the map sometimes to represent a little low level vorticity at times. The way I learned to forecast at Penn State is that if I see an L and have doubts, go look at the HPC and local AFD discussions and you can get a pretty good idea. If you go look at JAX or CHS or others on the SE coast, AND the NHC discussion from this afternoon, they all say there's a closed low out there still (embedded in a tropical wave/inverted trough), they all say it's moving WNW, and they all say it's the remnants of Fred. That's why I think the little L on the HPC surface analysis is Fred. When it's gone, and they don't show it, and don't mention Fred, Fred's gone.

Here's an excerpt from the 2:05PM NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 78W/79W FROM 31N TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH IS THE REMNANT LOW OF HURRICANE FRED.

[breeze]

When do you know you've followed a system way too long?

When you look at a satellite image of it and swear you see the face of an old man with a long gray beard....is that you, Fred?

[Stormavoider]

YIKES!!!!

[ozonepete]

When do you know you've followed a system way too long?

When you look at a satellite image of it and swear you see the face of an old man with a long gray beard....is that you, Fred?

LOL I see him! I couldn't stop laughing.

[Evil Jeremy]

I see him as well lol! An old eye and nose with the beard lol.

[breeze]

LOL, he looks like he's frowning at wxman57 for spraying him with Raid.