Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

PRC051-137-143-212045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0288.090921T1849Z-090921T2045Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-
249 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA...DORADO AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 245 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED
AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 445 PM
AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NEAR 22N 61W WITH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL
HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
GENERATED BETWEEN 1 TO 3. THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS WHERE BETWEEN
THE SAN JUAN AND TRUJILLO ALTO MUNICIPALITY BORDER. ALSO SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO..WHERE THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING OVER 2 INCHES IN
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THE TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO DICTATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY DIG SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

PRC027-065-071-115-212215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0289.090921T1920Z-090921T2215Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-
320 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...QUEBRADILLAS...CAMUY AND HATILLO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 316 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS OR TOWARDS THESE AREAS.ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS... RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT LEAST THROUGH 615 PM AST...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN...OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 22N42W TO 15N45W MOVING NWW 10-15
KT. WAVE IS BEING GUIDED WNW AROUND A 1010 MB LOW THAT IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N48W. THE ENTIRE AREA SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND
LOW COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW NE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THIS LOW LEVEL CURVATURE AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 45W-48W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
720 PM AST MON SEP 21 2009

.UPDATE...REGION TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON WAS ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
STRONG CONVECTION OVER VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ARE
SWOLLEN ALL OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH MINOR FLOODING LIKELY
TO OCCUR TONIGHT FOR THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS FAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO IS
CONCERNED. DEEP UPPER TROUGHING TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF 250MB PVA IN
NORTHERLY U/L FLOW TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE EAST
NORTHEASTERLY...HOPEFULLY ALLOWING SOME REPRIEVE FROM HARDEST HIT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS ENE WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION OVER MAYAGUEZ TO POINTS SOUTH. BY END OF WEEK ANOTHER
VERY DEEP AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE UNITED STATES
COAST AND SWEEPS INTO THE SW ATLANTIC. STRANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AS NORMALLY DONT SEE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHS THIS FAR SOUTH
UNTIL LATE OCTOBER. MIGHT EVEN BE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BOTTOM LINE
IS...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF
HEATING...AND SATURATED SOILS SPELL SEVERAL DAYS OF FLASH FLOODING
THREAT IN STORE THIS WEEK FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY XCPT
FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION. 925-850 MB WINDS MORE OUT
OF THE EAST TODAY AS OPPOSED TO EAST SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY MORE INTO THE ANASCO AND GUANAJIBO RIVER BASINS. MODELS
ALSO NOT AS BULLISH AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE SO PERHAPS TSTMS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AND EFFICIENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY BUT STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE MAYAGUEZ AREA WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE AREAS THAT GOT HIT THE HARDEST
YSTERDAY. SO FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS ON WED BUT WITH MUCH WEAKER STEERING WINDS
MAKING VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS IN THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE TSTMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVERS CREATING
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST.

THU-SAT...MODELS SHOW MID-LVL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP
THAT STRENGHTENS/LOWERS TO 750MB IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. HAVE INDICATED A DRIER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

SUN-MON...GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW A BIG SURGE IN PWAT AS SWD
AMPLIFICATION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM
THE ITCZ. K INDICES AND PWAT VALUES GET ABNORMALLY HIGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH VALUES AROUND 40 AND 2.5 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
TRENDED FCST WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CAP POPS AT 50% DUE TO
LOCAL POLICY.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

PRC001-073-075-111-113-141-149-222000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0295.090922T1800Z-090922T2000Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
PENUELAS PR-
200 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...UTUADO...VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND
PENUELAS

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA... RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 400 PM
AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS CREATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALOFT TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR WILL MAKE IT WAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING SLIGHTLY THE
CHANGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS REASONING THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES A DECREASE
IN PWAT VALUES FROM MORE THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE PREVIOUS DAYS TO
AROUND ONE INCH AND A HALF FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
INCREASING AGAIN THE INSTABILITY ALOFT. AT THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME
A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ...WILL PROPAGATE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS PROVIDING THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY TO INDUCE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK. THUS...ANOTHER
WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

PRC021-061-127-135-222215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0296.090922T2021Z-090922T2215Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
421 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 417 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED
AREA...WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
748 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...LONG WAVE U/L TROUGH TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER SW
ALTC...MOVING TOWARDS PR NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS INDUCED
TROUGHINESS AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL ASSIST PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS U/L REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY FRIDAY...LOWER LEVEL FRONT/SHEAR LINE FROM
LARGE U/L WILL MOVE CLOSE TO LOCAL AREA MAKING CONDITIONS MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE WEEKEND FOR LARGE SCALE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP
NUMEROUS POPS EACH AFTERNOON FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...REALLY EXPECTING
VERY LITTLE CHANGE. NUMEROUS TS EACH AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR...AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF EL YUNQUE. MOST
AREAS WILL GET RAIN AT LEAST ONCE EACH DAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED SEP 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PAST DAYS. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SO EXPECT STRONG
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN THE GUANAJIBO AND
ANASCO RIVER BASINS AS THE LOCAL WRF-NMM MODEL ACCURATELY
PREDICTED. TODAY THE MODEL IS MORE AGGRESIVE IN TERMS OF QPF AND
CVRG. TJUA VWP PROFILE SHOWS WINDS MORE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10-15 KT BETWEEN 3-8 KFT WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ABOVE THAT LEVEL
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...WOULD EXPECT THE
TSTMS TO BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND AFFECT
THE CULEBRINAS RIVER BASIN EVENTUALLY. I COULD HAVE ISSUED A FFA
FOR ALL OF THE WEST BUT HAVE LEFT THAT DECISION TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED BEGINNING THU AND LASTING INTO SAT
AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS IN. ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT AS MID-LVL DRY AIR AND
A STRENGHTENING SUBSIDENCE CAP LIMITS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
WELCOME NEWS FOR AREAS OF WRN PR WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE PLAGUED
THOSE AREAS FOR ALMOST A WEEK NOW.

SUN-MON...SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE SUNDAY
WILL DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ITCZ INTO OUR AREA. MODELS NOT AS
BULLISH AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY BUT DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CVRG.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 230858
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST WED SEP 23 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST OFF OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230537
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS REMAIN UNUSUALLY QUIET FOR SEPTEMBER AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 18N MOVING WNW 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V STRUCTURE
IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0032 UTC ALSO
CONFIRMS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE AXIS MAINLY E OF 35W WHICH IS
CURRENTLY CONFINING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 8N22W 7N30W 10N40W 9N50W
11N64W. A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND IS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 17W-19W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND 24W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W ALONG 27N96W TO THE SRN TIP
OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM 29N90W ALONG 27N93W TO 24N96W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 24N98W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N85W
TO 18N85W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 86W-88W. A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PREVIOUSLY INLAND OVER FLORIDA HAS NOW
MOVED OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N ALONG 83W. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON HEATING AND
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N101W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
E-W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 23N85W TO 18N85W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N W OF 86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S AND E OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-84W...AND N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-72W AFFECTING
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE E-W UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EMBEDDED IN A LARGER
AND MORE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 72W-83W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A 1006 MB LOW
OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E
PACIFIC ITCZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CALM UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 31N80W TO 27N80W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
22N TO THE NRN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 66W-81W DUE TO UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW AROUND A SHORTWAVE E-W UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AND MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG 59W
EXTENDING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N64W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN
54W-63W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 54W-58W. A WEAKENING 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW IS NEAR 16N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW
FROM 21N47W TO 12N50W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20W-23W BETWEEN
45W-48W...AND A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N40W TO 19N43W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS RELATIVELY CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE BASIN E OF 50W E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 59W. A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC MAINLY E OF
35W.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
125 PM AST WED SEP 23 2009

PRC021-031-061-127-137-139-232015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0297.090923T1725Z-090923T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
125 PM AST WED SEP 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND TOA
BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 121 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS GUAYNABO...AND BAYAMON.
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST
THROUGH 415 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
141 PM AST WED SEP 23 2009

PRC001-003-005-013-027-065-071-073-081-099-115-131-141-231930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0298.090923T1741Z-090923T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-
HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
141 PM AST WED SEP 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN
SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LARES...CAMUY...
HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 136 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA... RANGED FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 330 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. MUDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...MAINLY
OVER UTUADO...LARES...AND SAN SEBASTIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

[cycloneye]

Third warmest summer ever in San Juan

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N...JUST ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP AT 23/1200 UTC.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREAS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. RANDOM
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W.