WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (97W)

[StormingB81]

Just saw this on JMA. Tropical Depressin SE of Japan.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

[HURAKAN]

JMA is calling this a tropical depression????

[Macrocane]

I have noiced this season that JMA calls depression to systems that look very disorganized, maybe they have another definition of a tropical depression.

[HURAKAN]

I have noiced this season that JMA calls depression to systems that look very disorganized, maybe they have another definition of a tropical depression.

Not just disorganized, it doesn't even look tropical

[Macrocane]

I have noiced this season that JMA calls depression to systems that look very disorganized, maybe they have another definition of a tropical depression.

Not just disorganized, it doesn't even look tropical

Well I have noticed disorganized depressions this season but this is not the case , Looking at satellite animations this one looks kind of good but not in a tropical way.

[CrazyC83]

96W looks a lot better than this...if this is a TD, then that is a TS...

[HURAKAN]

JTWC says it could become tropical

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.7N 140.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE THAT IS TRANSITIONING
INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. A 232010Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20
TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WARM MOIST AIR
IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING A MOISTENING PHASE. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
AND DEVELOP A WARM CORE NEAR THE LLCC, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSITION
INTO A TRADITIONAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

At any point this will be a tropical cyclone.

[theavocado]

At any point this will be a tropical cyclone.

With the developing warm anomaly aloft, if this thing managed to spool up some central convection with associated latent heat release, I think there was a chance. It now looks like it's starting to interact with the baroclinic zone and the development train has left the platform.

It's an unusual time of year for a hybrid to go warm-core, but the concept isn't unheard of. I think DOLPHIN (2008) did the same thing.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 140.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN. A 232010Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 2O TO 25
KNOT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT HAS BUILT TO THE SURFACE. NOT ONLY HAS THE
CELL BUILT TO THE SURFACE, BUT THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO ACQUIRING
INCREASED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS CONFIRMED BY TEMPERATURE CROSS
SECTIONS FROM CIRA-RAMMB. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LACKS ANY
CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEGRADE AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN PASSES
BY THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S NON-
TROPICAL ORIGINS, AND PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, WILL FURTHER DELAY (OR PREVENT) A COMPLETE
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 28N 140E NORTH SLOWLY.

Incredible

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.1N
140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. A 241632Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL THAT HAS BUILT TO THE SURFACE. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LACKS ANY CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE DEGRADING
AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH JAPAN INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN, AND AS SUCH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL
FURTHER DELAY (OR PREVENT) A COMPLETE TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.