SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

I've had rain all morning until about now here at the house. I haven't emptied the gauge yet, but it is well over an inch and could be approaching 2". We had street flooding and quite a lot of CG with the initial storms passage this am which began on this side of town around 7:30 am. Need to get out and do a few errands before we get more.

edit: errands done and just in time. It has started raining again. Not complaining as long as it isn't flooding rains. We still need it.

[Diva]

Had slow, steady rain all day. LOTS more coming by the looks of radar. This is more rain than the "rain event" of a few weeks ago.

[StormClouds63]

I was just about to remark on the same forecast from about 2 weeks ago ... this is what we were also expecting. Nothing heavy this morning, just light to moderate rainfall, but steady. This should put a dent in the drought numbers.

[jasons2k]

Looks like in the new discussion the NWS is tapering things down a bit for the rest of the week. I haven't had that much rain, maybe 1/2" based on radar estimates. I sure could use some more. I was hoping for more like 2-5" from this but that looks doubtful now. Wash/rinse/repeat.

I'm ready for El Nino to start doing it's thing.

[southerngale]

NWS Houston is tapering things down a bit, but NWS Lake Charles doesn't seem to have changed their forecast thinking. I do realize Houston and Lake Charles can have much different weather but I always pay attention to both, since I'm on the western edge of LCH forecast area and not far from Houston's. Since our biggest rain events aren't usually predicted and our much-hyped rain events often don't come to fruition, I'm leaning toward the lower rain chances. JMNMO. (just my non-meteorological opinion)

I got some decent rain today. I didn't get any of the heavy stuff that a few of the luckier folks near here got, but I did get a steady, moderate rain for a good while, several times, with a lot of light stuff in between. It probably didn't amount to much, but it surely helped.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TX AND OFF THE
UPPER TX COAST. OVER-RUNNING SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING A BRYAN TO
CROCKETT LINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SE TX LATER TONIGHT. ONE
LAST BATCH OF RAIN MAY MAKE IT INTO SE TX DUE TO A WEAK JET
STREAK COMING ACROSS S TX WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN. THE FORECAST WILL STILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL BEING A CONCERN.

OVERALL THE 12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING AN
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE C PLAINS WHICH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS CENTERED OVER KS. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SW FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST LATER
TONIGHT. GIVEN A MORE SHALLOW AIRMASS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
DECIDED TO TWEAK POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THAT GREAT THROUGH FRI. BEST CHANCES WILL
STILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER TX. THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE WEEKEND IS MORE ON THE DRY SIDE. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR SUN/MON. GFS HINTS AT MOISTURE RETURNING
LATE SUN/MON BUT WILL GO WITH A SLOWER RETURN IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DECENT COLD FRONT ON NEXT
TUE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL
RUN TO SHOW THIS STRONG OF A FRONT AND NOT STALLING IT OUT NORTH
OF THE REGION. LIKELY LET THIS RIDE BUT THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE
MAY NEED TO REFLECT THIS FRONT SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 78 65 81 68 / 40 40 30 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 80 67 83 69 / 70 40 30 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 82 74 82 75 / 70 60 40 40 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMAINS OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SITTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BEYOND 60 NM OFF
SABINE PASS TO NEAR MARSH ISLAND THEN UP THROUGH THE EXTREME SERN
ZONES OF S-CNTL LA. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CROSSED THE
WRN PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...NOW SITTING JUST EAST OF THE
SABINE RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING SWD
ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. AREA 88DS SHOW RAINFALL COVERING JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WHILE STORMS ARE SCATTERED ALONG
THE OUTFLOW. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S WRN AREAS
WHILE TEMPS WARMED TO THE MID/EVEN UPPER 80S ERN/SERN ZONES PRIOR
TO THE RAINFALL COMMENCING.

NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING THIS GO AROUND. MODELS ALL
AGREE ON THE SFC FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE
CUTOFF LOW GENERALLY MEANDERS AROUND THE PLAINS STATES. WEAK WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BY
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE REGION
AND PUSHES THE CUTOFF FARTHER AWAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH PROGGED MRH/PWAT VALUES CERTAINLY
LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT LINGER AROUND THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

CUTOFF FILLS/EJECTS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH PUSHES ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THIS
FROPA HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS TO COVER.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 84 71 87 73 / 80 60 30 40 30
KBPT 72 83 70 86 73 / 80 60 30 50 30
KAEX 69 83 69 86 71 / 70 60 40 50 30
KLFT 72 85 72 88 73 / 80 60 30 40 30

[jasons2k]

It'll be just like the last one. Areas just to our east got dumped-on but Houston was left with very little.

Rain chances look much better closer to the front -- offshore & to our east...

[vbhoutex]

We managed 2.39" here in Spring Branch. Most of that was this mornings storms too, but we did have moderate rain on and off most of the day till late afternoon.

[jasons2k]

I checked the rain gauge and it had .93" in it...radar estimate was low.

[southerngale]

That's a little better than what I got, Jason. Right on the .75" line (I just dumped it this afternoon so I'm sure a little bit evaporated - lol). Also, after reading some stuff about rain gauges, I'm not so sure mine is very accurate. I probably shouldn't have bought the one that was $2.99.

I need to get my weather station set up. I bought it BEFORE Rita and I've never taken it out of the box.

Once again, nowhere near the predicted amounts. I guess the models have been struggling more than usual lately. And NWS LCH lowered rain chances for tomorrow and Friday. Today is the highest at 50% but I haven't seen anything nearby on local radar, just out in the GOM. Maybe it'll make it here. heh

[jasons2k]

That's a little better than what I got, Jason. Right on the .75" line (I just dumped it this afternoon so I'm sure a little bit evaporated - lol). Also, after reading some stuff about rain gauges, I'm not so sure mine is very accurate. I probably shouldn't have bought the one that was $2.99.

I need to get my weather station set up. I bought it BEFORE Rita and I've never taken it out of the box.

Once again, nowhere near the predicted amounts. I guess the models have been struggling more than usual lately. And NWS LCH lowered rain chances for tomorrow and Friday. Today is the highest at 50% but I haven't seen anything nearby on local radar, just out in the GOM. Maybe it'll make it here. heh

You can't beat this price: http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html

I got mine last week. Let me tell you, I was suprised at how huge it is. It really dwarfs my old Tru-Chek gauge.

[CajunMama]

Talk about a dome!

[weatherguy425]

Atleast that "dome" is feeling in ...

[jasons2k]

Talk about a dome!

You've been initiated

[southerngale]

Talk about a dome!

You've been initiated

Send her the link to the cactus forum.

[southerngale]

You can't beat this price: http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html

I got mine last week. Let me tell you, I was suprised at how huge it is. It really dwarfs my old Tru-Chek gauge.

Thanks! That looks much better than the el-cheapo I'm using now.

[vbhoutex]

You can't beat this price: http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html

I got mine last week. Let me tell you, I was suprised at how huge it is. It really dwarfs my old Tur-Chek gauge.

Thanks! That looks much better than the el-cheapo I'm using now.

I love mine. I just need binoculars to read it when it is still raining since it is out near my back fence(only place not blocked by trees). It is amazingly accurate and is very easy to read.

[srainhoutx]

Nice cool fall evening without rain tonight. Temp is down to 67 with a nice northerly breeze at 8:00 PM.

[vbhoutex]

Nice cool fall evening without rain tonight. Temp is down to 67 with a nice northerly breeze at 8:00 PM.

For us warm bloods, it is almost cool out. Great for cutting the AC costs way down!!

[srainhoutx]

Nice cool fall evening without rain tonight. Temp is down to 67 with a nice northerly breeze at 8:00 PM.

For us warm bloods, it is almost cool out. Great for cutting the AC costs way down!!

I am so ready for lower electric bills. Picked up about 1/2 inch of rain today as we in NW Harris County seemed to be the lucky ones.

[weatherguy425]

I'm watchin the radar and hopign that band moves in from the NW.It's definetly starting to seem like ElNino is kicking in...