WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KETSANA (17W/ONDOY)

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240421Z SEP 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.3N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.0N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.3N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.7N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.7N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 128.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W
(SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 240421Z SEP 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 240430) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.0N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.4N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.6N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.0N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 127.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE PROCESS THE LLCC
HAS ALSO BECOME LESS DISTINCTIVE; HOWEVER, A 250401Z TMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE JUSTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PI, DUE IN PART TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT. BOTH A 250034Z ASCAT IMAGE, AND THE
EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC, SUPPORT AN INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE MINIMAL PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH LUZON NEAR TAU 36.
AFTER CROSSING LUZON AND ENTERING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS POISED TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER,
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE CUT SHORT AS THE SYSTEM AGAIN TRACKS OVER
LAND (VIETNAM) AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COMPLIMENT A
STRAIGHT-RUNNER SCENARIO AS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND
260900Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 14.6N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.7N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.8N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.0N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.6N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.0N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.2N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 124.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND LATEST MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERIES SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODING THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM . THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 251322Z HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS DEPICTING
MULTIPLE 35-KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON PGTW'S 251730Z FIX. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASS OF LUZON AFTER TAU 12, THEN
REINTENSIFY INTO A TS WHEN IT EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU
36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 NEAR HUE,
VIETNAM BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AS THE SOLE OUTLIER,
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS HAINAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z
AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

Advisories started.

WTPQ20 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 15.1N 123.1E POOR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 16.4N 117.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

Very intense precipitation

[HURAKAN]

Big rain event

[HURAKAN]

TS 0916 (Ketsana)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 26 September 2009

Code: Select all

<Analyses at 26/00 UTC>
Scale   -
Intensity   -
Center position   N15°35'(15.6°)
   E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement   NNW Slowly
Central pressure   994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more   Wide 220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N16°05'(16.1°)
   E116°25'(116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement   W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure   990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle   140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N16°05'(16.1°)
   E112°25'(112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement   W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure   975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle   200km(110NM)
Storm warning area   Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity   Strong
Center position of probability circle   N16°50'(16.8°)
   E108°35'(108.6°)
Direction and speed of movement   W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure   960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle   300km(160NM)
Storm warning area   Wide 390km(210NM)

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.8N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.1N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.4N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.0N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.9N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.5N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 123.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

Friends in Manila say its dumping a lot of rain and while winds arent Typhoon strength, is windy. HK Observatory state it will turn Typhoon but head towards Hainan & Vietnam

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 912
WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0916 KETSANA (0916)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 15.5N 121.6E POOR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 15.7N 116.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 280600UTC 15.8N 112.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 290600UTC 16.2N 109.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.6N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.8N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.0N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.3N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.1N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.1N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 119.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.8N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.0N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.2N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.6N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.5N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.5N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE STORM HAS DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE RECONSOLI-
DATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INTENSIFIED AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST SOUTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T2.5), RJTD (T2.5), AND KNES
(T3.0), AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND FROM ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TS 17W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CHINA AND
INTENSIFY UP TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF HUE,
VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_philippines_flooding

40 dead from flooding in the Philippines.

[Aslkahuna]

As mentioned above, 40 people have been confirmed dead due to flooding from Storm Ondoy which also brought 10 minute winds of 44 mph to the area around Manila. Manila received 341 mm of rain (13.64 in) in 6 hours and flood waters in and around the Metro area have been as deep as 5 meters. Manila is a low flat area like NOLA and also like NOLA parts of the city are below sea level. There are pumping stations but they are ineffective since they are very old.

Steve

[Cookie]

they shouldn't be so old in an area's prone to these systems

[HURAKAN]

Looking great