ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (08L)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sanibel]

I like what's behind it emerging off Africa. Both these late bloomers will probably be stripped by the 2009 factor as they travel across the Atlantic. (If the second one develops) (And if 99L does a Fred loop)

[wxman57]

It's already beginning to look a little less organized. Perhaps the NHC will just let it go and not name it for the very short time it might be a TD/TS?

[ozonepete]

It's already beginning to look a little less organized. Perhaps the NHC will just let it go and not name it for the very short time it might be a TD/TS?

Why would they do that?

[wxman57]

It's already beginning to look a little less organized. Perhaps the NHC will just let it go and not name it for the very short time it might be a TD/TS?

Why would they do that?

No reason to name it if it's only going to survive a few hours. Looks like it is a TD now, but it may not be able to get much better organized.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ok, this is at least a TD if I have ever seen one. I think we should see at least a code red at 2pm, even if it is expected to be shred apart by tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[leanne_uk]

Code Red already, I like it

What do you think about the other system behind 99L thats just came off the African Coast?

[wxman57]

It does look a bit more impressive over the last hour or two. Let's see if the 18Z model data have the header "Tropical Cyclone Eight" vs. "Disturbance Invest".

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a TD to me, so much for the Cape Verde season shutting down already .

[HURAKAN]

The convection is not very strong but it's strongest over the LLC. The system shows a great signature of a developing tropical cyclone. I think that we may have TD 8 in our hands.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a TD to me, so much for the Cape Verde season shutting down already .

I know. Last week when I saw the large SAL wave I was the first one to say, "well folks, this is it for the Cape Verde" but I was wrong.

[wxman57]

The one "issue" I see would be convective tops are now warming.

[HURAKAN]

Popping.

[HURAKAN]

449
WHXX04 KWBC 251717
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.9 30.1 300./13.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[wxman57]

We have TD Eight:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC FRI SEP 25 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082009) 20090925 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090925 1800 090926 0600 090926 1800 090927 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 31.1W 18.5N 33.9W 21.1N 35.6W 23.0N 36.1W
BAMD 16.1N 31.1W 17.5N 33.2W 19.2N 34.9W 20.6N 35.9W
BAMM 16.1N 31.1W 17.7N 33.4W 19.4N 35.3W 20.9N 36.3W
LBAR 16.1N 31.1W 17.5N 32.8W 19.3N 34.2W 21.0N 35.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 40KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 40KTS 40KTS

[hcane27]

18Z model data has AL082009

[HURAKAN]

915
WHXX01 KWBC 251849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC FRI SEP 25 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (AL082009) 20090925 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090925 1800 090926 0600 090926 1800 090927 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 31.1W 18.5N 33.9W 21.1N 35.6W 23.0N 36.1W
BAMD 16.1N 31.1W 17.5N 33.2W 19.2N 34.9W 20.6N 35.9W
BAMM 16.1N 31.1W 17.7N 33.4W 19.4N 35.3W 20.9N 36.3W
LBAR 16.1N 31.1W 17.5N 32.8W 19.3N 34.2W 21.0N 35.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 40KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 40KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090927 1800 090928 1800 090929 1800 090930 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 36.2W 26.8N 34.5W 24.6N 30.5W 22.6N 25.6W
BAMD 21.9N 36.4W 23.3N 37.3W 23.4N 37.8W 21.8N 37.5W
BAMM 22.0N 37.0W 23.6N 38.2W 23.8N 38.7W 21.9N 38.8W
LBAR 22.3N 34.9W 23.7N 33.1W 23.9N 28.6W 25.8N 19.4W
SHIP 41KTS 42KTS 43KTS 41KTS
DSHP 41KTS 42KTS 43KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 31.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 26.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

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