After a pretty much dead September severe weather-wise (thank the dormant tropics for that!), it looks like October could be the start of a changing pattern, especially in the Midwest and Southern/Central Plains.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270900
SPC AC 270900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LWR MO
VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING MORE SIMILAR
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT POLAR SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
WHICH IS PROGGED INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
27/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF FLOW
EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. AN INCREASING
NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION IS PROGGED AS IT ADVANCES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...UNDERCUTTING A BLOCKING RIDGE
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU
REGION...WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER... BLOCKING/SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR. COUPLED WITH UNCERTAIN
NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PREDICTABILITY OF
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES BECOMES LOW.
..KERR.. 09/27/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Severe weather outbreak??? October 1-2
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srainhoutx
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm not liking some of the early data coming in.
At 18Z Thursday (as far out as it goes), the EHI is almost 3.00 - and that is shortly after the lunch hour.
Agree CrazyC83. I've been watching for the past several days and things are coming together. I'll wait another day or two before fully biting though.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Severe weather outbreak??? October 1-2
Squall line setup maybe?
SPC AC 290729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE E CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE...AND REMAIN STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW...WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRENGTHENING BLOCK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. A 70-90 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK
ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH A 40-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY
850 MB JET...LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. AND IT
STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AS 70F DEW
POINTS ADVECT NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX...AND MID 60S DEW POINTS REACH
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/ LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AIDED BY FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WHICH MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
...PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY THRU LOWER HALF OF THE MS VALLEY...
THE DETAILS OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE INHERENTLY
UNCLEAR AT THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME. BUT...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT A PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION AND THE INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHEAST
KANSAS. EARLY ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE POSSIBLE...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE
DRY LINE...AND THIS THREAT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED AS
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE OCCURS.
REGARDLESS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE LINE TENDS TO BACK BUILD
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
..KERR.. 09/29/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1248Z (8:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 290729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE E CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE...AND REMAIN STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW...WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRENGTHENING BLOCK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. A 70-90 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK
ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH A 40-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY
850 MB JET...LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. AND IT
STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AS 70F DEW
POINTS ADVECT NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX...AND MID 60S DEW POINTS REACH
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/ LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AIDED BY FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WHICH MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
...PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY THRU LOWER HALF OF THE MS VALLEY...
THE DETAILS OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE INHERENTLY
UNCLEAR AT THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME. BUT...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT A PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION AND THE INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHEAST
KANSAS. EARLY ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE POSSIBLE...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY RELATIVELY QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE
DRY LINE...AND THIS THREAT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED AS
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE OCCURS.
REGARDLESS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE LINE TENDS TO BACK BUILD
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
..KERR.. 09/29/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1248Z (8:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Severe weather outbreak??? October 1-2
From Accuweather:
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=0
A storm set to emerge from the Rockies will spark dangerous thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains later today into Thursday. The severe weather will erupt as noticeably cooler air following the storm slices into warm and moist air surging northward.
The strongest thunderstorms into Thursday will be capable of producing powerful winds, pounding hail and flooding downpours. The winds could down trees, overturn semi-trucks and cause damage to other outdoor structures. Hail could break windows of vehicles and homes. A few tornadoes may also touch down and cause destruction.
The powerful thunderstorms will first pound the central Plains later this afternoon into tonight. This includes the cities of Goodland, Kan.; Omaha, Neb.; and Kansas City, Mo. It should be noted that as the night progresses more heavy rain and hail will accompany the thunderstorms.
The threat zone for severe weather will shift and stretch from southern Iowa to northeastern Texas and northern Louisiana Thursday into Thursday night. Within this zone, the core of the most potent storms will target Missouri, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=0
A storm set to emerge from the Rockies will spark dangerous thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains later today into Thursday. The severe weather will erupt as noticeably cooler air following the storm slices into warm and moist air surging northward.
The strongest thunderstorms into Thursday will be capable of producing powerful winds, pounding hail and flooding downpours. The winds could down trees, overturn semi-trucks and cause damage to other outdoor structures. Hail could break windows of vehicles and homes. A few tornadoes may also touch down and cause destruction.
The powerful thunderstorms will first pound the central Plains later this afternoon into tonight. This includes the cities of Goodland, Kan.; Omaha, Neb.; and Kansas City, Mo. It should be noted that as the night progresses more heavy rain and hail will accompany the thunderstorms.
The threat zone for severe weather will shift and stretch from southern Iowa to northeastern Texas and northern Louisiana Thursday into Thursday night. Within this zone, the core of the most potent storms will target Missouri, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski
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