EPAC: Invest 90E

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902009.invest
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200909260745
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2009, DB, O, 2009092606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902009
EP, 90, 2009092506, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1107W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009092512, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1114W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009092518, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1120W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009092600, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1126W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2009092606, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1133W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

049
WHXX01 KMIA 260752
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0752 UTC SAT SEP 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090926 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090926 0600 090926 1800 090927 0600 090927 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 113.3W 11.1N 114.5W 11.9N 115.7W 12.4N 117.0W
BAMD 10.5N 113.3W 11.0N 114.7W 11.6N 116.2W 12.2N 117.8W
BAMM 10.5N 113.3W 10.9N 114.6W 11.5N 116.0W 12.1N 117.5W
LBAR 10.5N 113.3W 11.1N 114.7W 11.9N 116.5W 12.7N 118.6W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 37KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 37KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090928 0600 090929 0600 090930 0600 091001 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 118.4W 14.2N 121.2W 15.0N 124.5W 15.2N 128.4W
BAMD 13.0N 119.4W 14.6N 122.3W 15.9N 124.4W 16.9N 126.8W
BAMM 12.6N 119.1W 14.0N 121.9W 14.8N 124.5W 15.1N 127.7W
LBAR 13.5N 120.7W 14.6N 124.2W 16.3N 127.0W 16.3N 129.3W
SHIP 58KTS 66KTS 65KTS 59KTS
DSHP 58KTS 66KTS 65KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 113.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 112.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 110.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1025
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
NORA...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Slowly organizing.

[HURAKAN]

007
ABPZ20 KNHC 261742
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1110
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORA...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

699
WHXX01 KMIA 261838
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC SAT SEP 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090926 1800 090927 0600 090927 1800 090928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 115.9W 12.2N 117.3W 12.1N 118.6W 12.2N 120.0W
BAMD 12.0N 115.9W 12.2N 117.9W 12.4N 119.9W 12.6N 121.9W
BAMM 12.0N 115.9W 12.3N 117.7W 12.5N 119.5W 12.5N 121.2W
LBAR 12.0N 115.9W 12.5N 118.1W 13.0N 120.5W 13.6N 123.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090928 1800 090929 1800 090930 1800 091001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 121.2W 13.1N 123.5W 12.9N 125.8W 12.1N 127.6W
BAMD 12.9N 123.7W 13.9N 126.2W 14.1N 128.2W 14.0N 131.2W
BAMM 12.6N 122.9W 13.3N 125.5W 13.1N 127.7W 12.5N 130.6W
LBAR 14.1N 125.3W 15.9N 128.7W 15.8N 130.8W 14.4N 132.5W
SHIP 55KTS 61KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 55KTS 61KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 115.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 113.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 111.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[brunota2003]

Looks like whatever becomes of it, it will start moving WSW around 125W and 14N.

[HURAKAN]

727
ABPZ20 KNHC 271145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1250
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[brunota2003]

Did they drop it as an invest? I dont see it on the tracking map anymore.

[cycloneye]

Did they drop it as an invest? I dont see it on the tracking map anymore.

90E is still at NRL http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html Sometimes the automated graphic here has some problems as it has occured in the past.But the no mention of it at the TWO smells like it will be dropped later today.

[brunota2003]

What does the BT say?

[HURAKAN]

EP, 90, 2009092718, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1178W, 25, 1006, DB

Still there

[HURAKAN]

427
ABPZ20 KNHC 272343
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Another one bites the dust

[brunota2003]

And another one's gone, and another one's gone.

[cycloneye]

Its official now.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep902009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
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200909280238
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 902009.ren