WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 373
WTPQ21 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 09.1N 136.8E POOR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 11.8N 133.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 020000UTC 14.5N 130.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 030000UTC 17.1N 127.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Strange to see the JTWC go all the way to typhoon status with the JMA still at TS (not STS). 65 kt does seem reasonable though.

[HURAKAN]

Very nice system

[Derek Ortt]

Position poor from JMA? Have they taken lessons from IMD or something?

[cycloneye]

IMO,there has to be only one agency in the Western Pacific basin like NHC does in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific to then make the forecasts,not having different ones.Now we have to wait for the Japanese to upgrade to Typhoon (And change title of thread) while the system keeps getting stronger with a pinhole eye.JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) did the right call at 0300z.

[Macrocane]

IMO,there has to be only one agency in the Western Pacific basin like NHC does in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific to then make the forecasts,not having different ones.Now we have to wait for the Japanese to upgrade to Typhoon while the system keeps getting stronger with a pinhole eye.JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) did the right call at 0300z.

I prefer the JTWC because they use 1-min average winds, actually I think that the 10 min winds sometimes a underestimate the true power of the cyclones. Look at Choi wan it was clearly a very strong system but JMA had it "only" at 100 kt. Actually I don't pay much attention to JMA advisories (people who live in Asia should do it).

[Derek Ortt]

IMO,there has to be only one agency in the Western Pacific basin like NHC does in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific to then make the forecasts,not having different ones.Now we have to wait for the Japanese to upgrade to Typhoon (And change title of thread) while the system keeps getting stronger with a pinhole eye.JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) did the right call at 0300z.

the atlantic is set up no different than the WPAC

There is ONE RSMC in east basin. Only one.

The Atlantic also has multiple forecasting agencies. CHC, Cuba, Meteo France. Even I put out forecasts for the Atlantic.

One RSMC, but many other forecasts are out there

[Derek Ortt]

IMO,there has to be only one agency in the Western Pacific basin like NHC does in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific to then make the forecasts,not having different ones.Now we have to wait for the Japanese to upgrade to Typhoon while the system keeps getting stronger with a pinhole eye.JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) did the right call at 0300z.

I prefer the JTWC because they use 1-min average winds, actually I think that the 10 min winds sometimes a underestimate the true power of the cyclones. Look at Choi wan it was clearly a very strong system but JMA had it "only" at 100 kt. Actually I don't pay much attention to JMA advisories (people who live in Asia should do it).

JMA was about right with Choi Wan. JTWC was somewhat off for keeping the winds so high when an EWRC as going on. There has been enough recon to show that Dvorak numbers ar enot that good during EWRCs

[Typhoon10]

Nice to see another system heading our way! Hong Kong Observatory projects it heading north of Philippines towards Taiwan. I hope it goes inbetween & heads towards HK!

What strength do we think this will attain? They have just said turned Typhoon 1, is it likely will get T3,4 or even like Choi-Wan, a T5?

[StormingB81]

JTWC says that the models for Parma are all over the place and keep and eye on this storm. The models coming out with the advisories have been al over the place. I think everyone between the Phillipenes and Okinawa needs to watch this storm closely seing how intenisity has been explosive. This storm wasnt even supposed to be a typhoon to tomorrow. This can pack a huge punch to anyone in its path.

[StormingB81]

Also it looks like there is a front about to come off the coast of China. I wonder how much of a roll that will play in the track of Parma.

[RattleMan]

TPPN12 PGTW 300616

A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)
B. 30/0530Z
C. 9.8N
D. 135.4E
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. AN 8NM LG EYE IS EMBEDDED
INTO A WHT RING. WITHOUT ANY EYE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED THE SYSTEM
YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. FT BASED ON PT. MET YIELDS 4.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE

[wxmann_91]

JTWC says that the models for Parma are all over the place and keep and eye on this storm. The models coming out with the advisories have been al over the place. I think everyone between the Phillipenes and Okinawa needs to watch this storm closely seing how intenisity has been explosive. This storm wasnt even supposed to be a typhoon to tomorrow. This can pack a huge punch to anyone in its path.

Track forecast will be tough; many models want to stall Parma between the Philippines and Taiwan for several days (for the ECM, a week) as steering currents collapse and as Fujiwhara interaction with Melor comes into play. Often in weak steering currents TC's will drift south; this coupled with TC-induced enhancement of the monsoonal trough can only mean bad news for flood-ravaged areas of the Philippines.

[P.K.]

Parma has skipped STS status.

WTPQ21 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 09.9N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 13.0N 131.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 020600UTC 15.6N 128.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 030600UTC 17.8N 127.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[moonlighting]

Hi to all. I just found this site as I was looking how strong PARMA will be. I do not understand the technicalities and terminologies of storms and typhoons, etc. I'm simply a mom from the Philippines who needs to know if PARMA will be a windy storm/typhoon or a rainy one?

Thanks and more power to this site.

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 9.9N 135.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 135.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 11.5N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.2N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 134.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
292049Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT TY 19W REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS AT PALAU AND YAP. THE TRACK SPEED
FOR TY 19W HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS PARMA LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO
PERSIST. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[apocalypt-flyer]

Both are on the cards. The current forecast doesn't track Parma directly over the Phillipines but it only takes a small deviation to the left and things will look different because Parma is probably going to be quite the juggernaut in terms of strength. Taiwan could also be in for a rough ride in a week or so.

But honestly, neither of the countries need another significant tropical even in this season.

[cycloneye]

Parma has skipped STS status.

WTPQ21 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 09.9N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 13.0N 131.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 020600UTC 15.6N 128.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 030600UTC 17.8N 127.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

Peter,its rare that JMA skips a category?

[cebuboy]

I just see the local weather bulletin in Cebu that Parma will make a landfall in Surigao Islands Philippines this evening or tomorrow at 140kph. Well I am sad on this and I got to prepare, the last time , a typhoon cross Surigao that was in 1990 when a category 5 typhoon Mike (Ruping) made a landfall in the same islands at 175 + kph and is a disaster for Cebu.

Manila got hit by Ketsana very badly and I hope this one will not.

I got to prepare for this, and I hope it will divert its path.

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent