EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF (18E)

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200909290022
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2009, DB, O, 2009092900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912009
EP, 91, 2009092800, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1035W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009092806, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1041W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009092812, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1048W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009092818, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1054W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009092900, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1060W, 20, 1007, DB

Edited title to add EPAC=By cycloneye

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 290032
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC TUE SEP 29 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090929 0000 090929 1200 090930 0000 090930 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 106.0W 16.6N 107.8W 17.5N 110.1W 18.4N 112.8W
BAMD 16.0N 106.0W 16.5N 107.9W 17.2N 110.0W 18.2N 112.2W
BAMM 16.0N 106.0W 16.4N 108.0W 17.0N 110.4W 17.9N 112.9W
LBAR 16.0N 106.0W 16.2N 107.9W 17.0N 110.5W 17.6N 113.5W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091001 0000 091002 0000 091003 0000 091004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 115.4W 20.4N 121.3W 20.2N 125.5W 19.6N 126.7W
BAMD 19.6N 114.3W 22.7N 118.1W 27.0N 118.3W 31.1N 103.3W
BAMM 19.1N 115.2W 21.4N 120.4W 23.7N 122.8W 26.2N 120.9W
LBAR 19.0N 115.9W 21.7N 121.0W 25.1N 121.9W 28.3N 114.4W
SHIP 44KTS 44KTS 33KTS 19KTS
DSHP 44KTS 44KTS 33KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 106.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 104.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 103.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[srainhoutx]

[Ad Novoxium]

There are "forming" cyclones.
There are disturbances which are "turning".
There are those which are getting better organized.

This:

...makes me think "some assembly required".

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

617
ABPZ20 KNHC 291146
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Appears to have a rather broad area of circulation

[HURAKAN]

Next name: OLAF

[BigA]

I´m watching this one closely becasue my stepdad is going on a fishing trip near the Rocas Alijos, west of Baja California. This storm could curtail this trip.

[cycloneye]

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

Very large disturbance

[vbhoutex]

That is very large!! At first glance I thought there were two systems, even though I hadn't heard of another EPAC invest.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Too big, too messy

[Kingarabian]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN