ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 9/21/09 Update

No changes at El Nino 3,3-4 and 4.The only change was a decrease at El Nino 1-2.

Last week update:

Niño 4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.9ºC
Niño 3=+0.8ºC
Niño1+2=+0.5ºC


Latest update for this week:

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.9ºC
Niño 3=+0.8ºC
Niño1+2=+0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Macrocane]

So far the models had not been that good predicting the strength of El Niño, I don't think it will reach the 1.5 ºC anomaly but that's just my opinion.

[El Nino]

This +2º anomaly is very strange ! A bug ?

http://www.forums.meteobelgium.be/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=34640

[cycloneye]

30 Day SOI Index

The 30 day SOI Index continues to go up in positive status.Definitly,this El Nino wont be a strong one at its peak by winter or may haved peaked already?



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index

It continues to rise in positive territory.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[HURRICANELONNY]

Weird. Maybe El Nino is fading. What do the models know anyways. The farmers Almanac says a bitter cold winter. While the NWS says no. Maybe the Almanac is on to something. By the way. I don't have the page for the Almanac. It was posted on AOL's homepage about a week ago.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 9/28/09 update

Umm,the numbers for the most part haved decreased.El Nino 1+2 went below the 0 line.

Last Week numbers:

Niño 4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.9ºC
Niño 3=+0.8ºC
Niño1+2=+0.3ºC

This Week numbers:

Niño 4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3=+0.7ºC
Niño1+2 -0.1ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Macrocane]

It seems that El Niño is not intensifying, at least temporarily and most of the models are no longer predicting a strong El Niño, that's some good news because the climate and weather anomalies may be weaker.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Australians 9/30/09 update

Details
The Pacific Ocean sea surface remains significantly warmer than the long-term mean across almost all equatorial regions. The preliminary SST anomaly map for September is available here; the map shows warm anomalies covering most of the tropical Pacific, with anomalies in excess of +1°C evident across much the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. The preliminary monthly NINO indices for September are +1.0°C, +0.9°C and +0.8°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared with August values, there has been little change in the monthly NINO values. The warm SST anomalies to the west of NINO4, in the Australasian region, are unusual for an El Niño event. Typically these regions are average to cooler than average during an El Niño.

In terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +0.9°C, +0.8°C and +0.1°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared with August values, NINO4 has cooled by approximately 0.2°C, while NINO3 and NINO3.4 have remained similar in magnitude. The 7-day SST anomaly map shows significantly warmer than normal SST across almost the entire tropical Pacific, with anomalies in excess of +1°C evident along the equator east of 160°E. An animation of recent SST changes is available.

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled through September. The sub-surface has been cooling steadily since June. Whilst in June a large volume of sub-surface water was significantly warmer than the long-term mean, there are now only weak warm anomalies. A recent map for the 5 days ending 28 September shows weak warm anomalies extending across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalies exceeding +2°C are evident east of 140°W and near the date-line on a weekly scale. When compared with two weeks ago, the sub-surface has cooled slightly in the eastern Pacific and warmed slightly in the central Pacific. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available.

An archive of past SST and sub-surface temperature charts is available.

Trade winds were generally close to normal strength across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific through September. Westerly wind anomalies persisted to the west of the date-line. The latest weekly wind anomalies are shown in the TAO/TRITON map (small image above) for the five days ending 28 September. The map shows the well established westerly wind anomalies to the west of the date-line and some very weak easterly anomalies to the east of the date-line on a weekly scale. These may have some impact upon Pacific Ocean temperatures over the coming fortnight.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is yet to show any clear El Niño trend. The current 30 day value of the SOI (28 September) is a neutral +3. The monthly value for August was −5. The SOI is typically below −7 during El Niño events. (SOI graph, SOI table).

Cloudiness near the date-line over the equatorial Pacific is another important indicator of El Niño conditions, as it typically increases during these episodes. Consistent with a developing El Niño, cloudiness near the date-line has been greater than normal over the past month. Cloudiness over Southeast Asia and most of Australia has been below average over the last month, which is also consistent with a developing El Niño. However, there has been a consistent signal of enhanced cloudiness to the west of the date-line, a pattern which is unusual when compared with previous El Niño events and is likely to be related to the warmer than normal SSTs in the region.

International computer model predictions from seven dynamic climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology reflect the current mixed ocean and atmosphere indicators, discussed above, in their forecasts for the rest of 2009. Warming of the ocean in the coming months is now forecast by all models to be more moderate than the warming in previous forecasts. However, most models are continuing to predict SST values will remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2009. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a steady warming with SST remaining above El Niño thresholds into early 2010, peaking over the summer months.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 10/5/09 update

The numbers continue to decrease slowly.

Last week numbers:

Niño 4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3=+0.7ºC
Niño1+2 -0.1ºC


This weeks numbers:
Niño 4=+ 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.7ºC
Niño 3=+0.6ºC
Niño1+2=-0.3ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricanetrack]

There is no question in my mind that this El Nino will be gone by June of 2010. I would assume that neutral conditions will prevail and if you look at hurricane seasons with neutral ENSO signals, well, you'll see.

This was one of the strangest El Ninos I can remember. The SOI never really stayed negative for too long and now it is basically at zero. Look for the climate models to slowly catch up and come around in predicting the end of the El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center October Update


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

A weak El Niño continued during September 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained nearly unchanged across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). Since the transition to El Niño conditions during June, the weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index have remained between +0.7oC and +0.9oC (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. In addition, two westerly wind bursts were observed over the western equatorial Pacific, the first occurring early in the month and the second occurring near the end of the month (Fig. 5). These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niño.

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 6) suggest that El Niño will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0oC or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5oC) during the fall and winter, but in recent months some models, including the NCEP CFS, have over-predicted the degree of warming observed so far in the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 7). Based on the model forecasts, the seasonality of El Niño, and the continuation of westerly wind bursts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and most likely peak at moderate strength.

Expected El Niño impacts during October-December 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, and below-average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest. Other potential impacts include a continued suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity, along with above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall for the Northern Plains.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 10/19/09 update

I forgot to post the 19th of October update from Climate Prediction Center but here it is.It shows increasing numbers and that means more warming.

Last week numbers:

Niño 4=+0.8ºC
Niño 3.4=+0.7ºC
Niño 3=+0.6ºC
Niño1+2=-0.3ºC

This week numbers:

Niño 4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3.4=+ 0.9ºC
Niño 3=+0.7ºC
Niño1+2=0.0ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The daily SOI and the 30 day SOI has taken a big dip in the past 7 days.It means el Nino is mantaining its grip and even getting a little more developed.

16-Oct-2009 -12.19
17-Oct-2009 -32.75
18-Oct-2009 -41.26
19-Oct-2009 -40.16
20-Oct-2009 -32.30
21-Oct-2009 -29.14
22-Oct-2009 -24.05
23-Oct-2009 -25.53
24-Oct-2009 -19.34
25-Oct-2009 -22.95
26-Oct-2009 -19.66
27-Oct-2009 -20.63


http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[Macrocane]

Finally a more typical El Niño pattern I wonder if the warming of this week's SST and the negative SOI are in part responsable for Rick's and Neki's development.

[cycloneye]

El Nino has intensified to moderate.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 10/26/09 update

Increase of the numbers in all the areas especially at el nino 3-4 and 4.

Last week numbers:

Niño 4= +1.2ºC
Niño 3.4=+ 0.9ºC
Niño 3=+0.7ºC
Niño1+2=0.0ºC


This week numbers:

Niño 4=+1.4ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.1ºC
Niño 3=+0.8ºC
Niño1+2=+ 0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think we were in Part A of El Nino this summer. Which did not show true indicators of more then a weak El Nino. Now were showing a more typical El Nino that is moderate. Part B shows a more typical warming of the equator while Part A showed more warming near South America. Which I think was the reason the Hurricane season was almost dead.

[cycloneye]

If the projections from the ENSO models are correct,the 2010 hurricane season will not have El Nino as a negative factor.