#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:28 pm
Discussion of 0300z warning.
WDPN34 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS INTENSIFIED AND SLOWED DOWN ITS
FORWARD MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED FURTHER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THAT
TS 20W IS ON THE VERGE OF DEVELOPING AN EYE AND HAS DEVELOPED AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 20W IS
JUST WEST OF A DIVERGENT MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A FAIR
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE STORM IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION BY THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND UNDER
DIFFLUENT, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) TO THE WEST. TS MELOR WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN
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