SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[CajunMama]

How are y'all enjoying the weather in the south. I'm here in lincoln, ne. It's 59, misty and the wind is a bit breezy.

[vbhoutex]

How are y'all enjoying the weather in the south. I'm here in lincoln, ne. It's 59, misty and the wind is a bit breezy.

Enjoy it while you can. We're expecting low 90's by the beginning of the week. Right now it is 74º, mostly cloudy and comfortable.

[CajunMama]

Darn...back home with the humidity.

[Tireman4]

And heat. Goodness gracious. Last gasp of Summer?

[vbhoutex]

And heat. Goodness gracious. Last gasp of Summer?

Hopefully, along with no more TC's either.

[srainhoutx]

Wouldn't be surprised to see an Urban Flood Advisory for Northern Harris County/Southern MontgomeryCounty. Looks bad along I-45 from the N Belt to Spring.

[southerngale]

Wow, what happened today? This morning, just a slight chance of showers at 20% for today, but by late morning, strong storms starting popping up everywhere and became pretty widespread. NWS had upped it to 70% by early afternoon when I checked. I was one of the unlucky few (surprise, surprise. lol) who got next to nothing. Heavy storms in every direction around me at least once, even south of me when the light stuff that went over me strengthened quite a bit right after it passed me. Now my sister on the other hand, was stormed on everywhere she went, from Nederland to all over Beaumont and her house. I think they were following her. Her electricity went out briefly and there were numerous stoplights out in Beaumont. There was hail at Westbrook High School.

Whew... better look out for those 20% chance of shower days. They're often worse than the 80% days.

[somethingfunny]

Yes SG, the 20-30% days are usually the wettest, and the 60-80% days frequently bust. Or maybe those are just the forecasts we remember.

[vbhoutex]

Had some very noisy and non-productive(in my area t'storms earlier this evening, Other areas of Houston got downpours and winds to 40 mph. Looked like we were going to have convergence right over my house earlier but it did not happen. It did start rumbling some and raining lightly to moderately about an hour ago and is still coming down lightly. Looks like about 0.25" so far, but I will wait till morning to empty the gauge.

edit in the am: 0.15" in the gauge. Radar looks promising for later. We'll see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Weak frontal boundary partly responsible for widespread thunderstorms yesterday continues to creep across the area.

Front appears to be along a line from offshore of Lake Charles to Liberty to Spring to Brenham. Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the pre-frontal trough now over the NW Gulf of Mexico and the above mentioned surface boundary. Additional storms have fired up in the last 2 hours well north of the boundary between Waco and CLL along the 850mb front and ahead of an incoming short wave. Models are fairly aggressive over the next 6 hours with rainfall S of I-10 ahead of the front and short wave. Given the amount of coverage on the radar I see no reason to disagree and will go with the highest chances SW of a line from High Island to Sugar Land to Columbus where the deepest moisture is found (PWS > 1.9 inches, surface dewpoints > 70, and favorable surface convergence ahead of the surface front).

Front should bridge into the coastal waters this afternoon with NE flow developing and then stall out. Next deepening trough will move into the NW PAC coast later today and plow into the central plains Thursday. Intense warm air advection pattern will pull tropical moisture back into the region Wednesday ahead of this strong early Fall storm system. Jet stream energy is impressive with this system, although the core of the stronger dynamics will remain north of our region. Nearly all models are in agreement with a linear type squall line feature early Friday morning along/ahead of a Pacific frontal passage. Will go with the highest chances up north closer to the stronger dynamics with lesser chances SW where flow turns more SW in the mid levels ejecting increased mid level warming (cap) out of NE Mexico. Severe threat looks marginal considering the unfavorable timing in the midnight to 1000am range.

May sneak in a decent Saturday before highly progressive pattern brings the Friday front back northward. Flow becomes SW with time tapping what will likely be yet another EPAC tropical cyclone ahead of the next deep trough to dig into the SW US. Will go ahead and start rain chances again on Sunday a boundary/moisture/jet stream disturbances return. Will probably see better chances of rain early next week…but timing of noisy SW flow aloft with impulse is fairly difficult.

[southerngale]

It felt GREAT outside today! High was in the mid-70s.

My dog loved it as well. She spends more time indoors in the summer and winter, but clearly enjoys fall and spring a lot more.

[jasons2k]

Wow, what happened today? This morning, just a slight chance of showers at 20% for today, but by late morning, strong storms starting popping up everywhere and became pretty widespread. NWS had upped it to 70% by early afternoon when I checked. I was one of the unlucky few (surprise, surprise. lol) who got next to nothing. Heavy storms in every direction around me at least once, even south of me when the light stuff that went over me strengthened quite a bit right after it passed me. Now my sister on the other hand, was stormed on everywhere she went, from Nederland to all over Beaumont and her house. I think they were following her. Her electricity went out briefly and there were numerous stoplights out in Beaumont. There was hail at Westbrook High School.

Whew... better look out for those 20% chance of shower days. They're often worse than the 80% days.

NO KIDDING!!

I have been offline for a few days. Let me just tell you - for once I was NOT happy on Monday to see it pouring at my house. Long story short - I had my Tiki Roof replaced so on Sunday I took everything out and had it all laid-out on my pool deck. It wasn't supposed to rain, right?? RIGHT??

Well, of course on Monday I got the biggest deluge I've had in months. Yes, I need the rain but there was virtually no forecast - no warning for this. I lost some papers, etc. Oh and all my "party lights" were in a bucket. Those little lights are not made with stainless plugs...so you know what happened with those after sitting in a bucket full of water all day.

Ugh.

I guess, like you pointed out, the theory still stands:

"Major flood event unfolding for SE Texas" = cloudy with a few sprinkles
"Dry air and a strong cap will keep a lid on any precip that tries to form. Will maintain 20 pops just for consistency and the isolated seabreeze shower" = locate your flood policy

[srainhoutx]

Well the cactus forum may need to be activated as the HPC has updated...snipet...

...CNTRL/SRN TX AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
THE NORTH AND THE TAIL END OF AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS
ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH THE PD. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 2
INCHES AND K INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 30S...SUGGESTING THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BY DAY 3 THE WRN SECTION OF
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD THROUGH TX ALLOWING PRECIP TO
BREAK OUT AS FAR WEST AS THE MEXICAN BORDER. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER IN SWEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH... SO WE OPTED FOR
A MEAN AREAL AVE PCPN AMOUNT GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES SIMILAR TO THE
12Z ECMWF... ALTHOUGH EVEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
LOCALLY.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

[vbhoutex]

I believe it was Tim Heller who said 3"-5" possible in our area. I guess he was looking at the HPC map Steve posted in the C TX thread earlier today.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Strong warm air advection pattern underway this morning with deep tropical moisture surging northward over SE TX.

Radar showing streamer showers moving inland from Calhoun to Chambers counties this morning and spreading as far inland as US 59. This is in conjunction with returning deep moisture and developing low level jet. Over the plains a deepening cyclone today will send a cold front southward through Texas tonight. Local air mass becomes very unstable by early to mid afternoon as surface heating works on increasing moisture. Result will be CAPE over 2000-3000 J/kg, LI’s falling below -2, and upper dynamics with broad divergence over the region. Expect to see scattered thunderstorms develop for areas along and N of I-10 especially toward 400-600pm as incoming pre-frontal trough arrives. Modeling soundings support a few storms to near severe levels although the best threats will be NE of our area.

Cold front will arrive after midnight into Friday morning. While front is moving into the area at the heating minimum, think there will be enough instability and moisture to produce another round of storms early Friday. Squall line should form up over NW TX late this afternoon and this line in some form may be what arrives Friday morning. Severe threat will be slightly higher early Friday with potential for linear development along the front leading to a damaging wind threat. Wind profiles are not all that robust, so not expecting widespread wind damage…just a few 50-60mph gusts.

Friday night-Sunday:

Weekend is shaping up to be a wet one as the cold front slams on the brakes and pulls up stationary along the coast. Noisy upper level SW flow will overrun the surface boundary. Deep moisture from both the Gulf and EPAC tropical system will flow over the region along with jet stream disturbances, and a favorable divergence pattern aloft. This all points to widespread rains initially out west Friday night and then spreading across the entire region Saturday. Coastal warm front will only slowly move northward and this will keep the focus for heavy rainfall across the entire region into Sunday. Models are usually too fast in moving such boundaries northward with widespread rainfall north of them helping to keep them in place longer. Not overly concerned about the flooding threat just yet, but given the deep moisture in place and stalled/slow moving boundary attention is at least aroused. Rainfall totals through Monday will average 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible. Close watch will be needed on this set up over the next 24 hours.

[srainhoutx]

We shall see. The Cactus Forum is on standby.

[srainhoutx]

EPAC TD 18E has been declared adding to the mix. We shall see, but things are coming together to make for an interesting 3-5 days for TX and points eastward.

[Tireman4]

We shall see. The Cactus Forum is on standby.

Yikes.......

[Diva]

Nope....I'm not buying it.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

TXC039-167-201-012200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0051.091001T2115Z-091001T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
415 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 407 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAYLOR LAKE
VILLAGE TO THE LEAGUE CITY AND DICKINSON AREA TO FRIENDSWOOD. HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS LIKELY RESULTING
IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED.