Good morning to all.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300814
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST WED SEP 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE HIGH WEAKENS...RESULTING IN AN EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE
UNITED STATES...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA
DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE...WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGE LITTLE THE LAST
24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG HEATING AT THE
SURFACE...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...ARE THE ONLY FACTORS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. LATEST
MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATE THAT
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS STILL IN AN AREA OF DECENT
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING FRIDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE
MOIST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...DIG SOUTHEAST...AND MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE
MONA CHANNEL...CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR LOCAL AREA. THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING...WILL PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS
SHOWS THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES FOR FRIDAY. IN
THE LONG TERM...MOISTURE COMING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...INCREASING EVEN
MORE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OR
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 300901
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST WED SEP 30 2009
SKIES CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THE DOPPLER WAS SHOWING PATCHES OF PASSING SHOWERS IN
BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AROUND 4 TO 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 80S ON THE WINDWARD COASTS TO THE UPPER 70S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO THE MID LEVELS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS 86 TO 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE NORTHERN SWELL THAT IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 300901
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST WED SEP 30 2009
SKIES CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THE DOPPLER WAS SHOWING PATCHES OF PASSING SHOWERS IN
BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AROUND 4 TO 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 80S ON THE WINDWARD COASTS TO THE UPPER 70S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO THE MID LEVELS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS 86 TO 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE NORTHERN SWELL THAT IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N. ANY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 13N16W 9N26W 8N35W 9N45W 8N55W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
20W...ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
SOME OF IT IS RELATED TO INTERACTIONS WITH AT LEAST ONE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N40W TO 13N43W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 100W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N79W
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO JUST
OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N73W AND 10N77W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE
TROUGH...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 11N81W...EVENTUALLY SWEEPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE FROM 79W ALONG PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND THEN FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 100W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA AND BEYOND...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROUGH...THAT STRETCHES
FROM BERMUDA TO 29N70W...INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N77W.
REMNANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N57W TO 25N57W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT
IS ALONG 53W FROM 15N TO 22N. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N30W 28N40W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N40W TO 29N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N40W TO 13N43W.
SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 23N WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 301059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N. ANY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 13N16W 9N26W 8N35W 9N45W 8N55W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
20W...ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
SOME OF IT IS RELATED TO INTERACTIONS WITH AT LEAST ONE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N40W TO 13N43W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 100W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N79W
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO JUST
OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N73W AND 10N77W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE
TROUGH...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 11N81W...EVENTUALLY SWEEPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE FROM 79W ALONG PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND THEN FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 100W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA AND BEYOND...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROUGH...THAT STRETCHES
FROM BERMUDA TO 29N70W...INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N77W.
REMNANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N57W TO 25N57W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT
IS ALONG 53W FROM 15N TO 22N. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N30W 28N40W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N40W TO 29N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N40W TO 13N43W.
SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 23N WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 40W.
$$
MT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST WED SEP 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT AXIS ALONG 70W WILL WEAKEN AS POLAR
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AMPLIFIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED A BIT EAST ALLOWING LOW-
MID LEVEL CAP TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PR
EACH AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL RE-ESTABLISH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENT
CAPPING DOWN TO AROUND 700 MB. MOVING AHEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US WILL PUSH OVER W ATLC
BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING DOWN MID LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BELIEVE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION TO ISO-SCT RANGE
THRU THE WEEKEND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST WED SEP 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT AXIS ALONG 70W WILL WEAKEN AS POLAR
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AMPLIFIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED A BIT EAST ALLOWING LOW-
MID LEVEL CAP TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PR
EACH AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL RE-ESTABLISH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENT
CAPPING DOWN TO AROUND 700 MB. MOVING AHEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US WILL PUSH OVER W ATLC
BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING DOWN MID LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE...BELIEVE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION TO ISO-SCT RANGE
THRU THE WEEKEND.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 302112
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 PM AST WED SEP 30 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A FEW LINES OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS...BUT OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE PLEASANT.
WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM
THE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 302112
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 PM AST WED SEP 30 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A FEW LINES OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS...BUT OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE PLEASANT.
WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM
THE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT.
$$
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all.Can you believe October has arrived? Time goes very fast.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU OCT 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ARE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER LAND
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT IT BY THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW PRODUCED BY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
EVERY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE NEAR 58 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z NAM12 COMPUTER MODEL BRINGS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHICH COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM
HEATING...WE MAY EXPECT AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN US...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WHICH
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE. IN THE LONG TERM...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST
BY THE GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. HISTORICALLY...OCTOBER HAS
BEEN THE 4TH WETTEST MONTH AT WFO SAN JUAN. STAY TUNED.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU OCT 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ARE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER LAND
AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT IT BY THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW PRODUCED BY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
EVERY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE NEAR 58 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z NAM12 COMPUTER MODEL BRINGS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHICH COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM
HEATING...WE MAY EXPECT AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN US...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST WHICH
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE. IN THE LONG TERM...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST
BY THE GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. HISTORICALLY...OCTOBER HAS
BEEN THE 4TH WETTEST MONTH AT WFO SAN JUAN. STAY TUNED.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011048
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
18W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
24N84W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE FEW REMAINING
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOWERS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM MIAMI TO 25N86W IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA LITERALLY IS
PUSHED ALONG TO THE EAST BY THE RUSH OF AIR FROM THE VORTICITY
AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ARE AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
24N84W. MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RUSH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
HEADING TOWARD HISPANIOLA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS LOST ITS
CYCLONIC CHARACTERISTICS. BROAD WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN U.S.A. COASTAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO FLORIDA
AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N84W ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N AND MIAMI. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM MIAMI INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AT LEAST 400 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W 25N58W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT FROM FIVE DAYS AGO CONTINUES AS A TROUGH
ALONG 57W/58W FROM 10N TO 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
19N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
A 25N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N50W...ON TOP OF THE
50W/51W TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
SPINNING AROUND A 37N29W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 29N22W TO 27N29W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N29W TO 27N37W AND 28N45W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 25N42W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N
BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 011048
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
18W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
24N84W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE FEW REMAINING
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOWERS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM MIAMI TO 25N86W IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA LITERALLY IS
PUSHED ALONG TO THE EAST BY THE RUSH OF AIR FROM THE VORTICITY
AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ARE AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
24N84W. MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RUSH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
HEADING TOWARD HISPANIOLA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS LOST ITS
CYCLONIC CHARACTERISTICS. BROAD WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN U.S.A. COASTAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO FLORIDA
AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N84W ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N AND MIAMI. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM MIAMI INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AT LEAST 400 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W 25N58W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT FROM FIVE DAYS AGO CONTINUES AS A TROUGH
ALONG 57W/58W FROM 10N TO 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
19N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
A 25N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N50W...ON TOP OF THE
50W/51W TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
SPINNING AROUND A 37N29W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 29N22W TO 27N29W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N29W TO 27N37W AND 28N45W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 25N42W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N
BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.
$$
MT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1253 PM AST THU OCT 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A PERSISTENT PATTEN OF ONLY
SCT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY REBUILDING OVER THE AREA
AFTER BEING WEAKENED BY MINOR PERTURBATION YESTERDAY. GFS/EURO
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS U/L LOW DIGS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING CLOSER
THE AREA BY LATE WEEKEND. STILL FAVORING THIS SOLUTION OVER THE
NAM WHICH REALLY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND OVER-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGHING. A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE
U/L TO HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT OTHER THAN VENTILATION OF SCT
CONVECTIVE SEA BREEZE CELLS OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEKEND. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF PERSISTENT WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND PLENTY OF SUN FOR ALL BUT
WESTERN PR. THE ONLY WRENCH IN THIS SETUP WILL BE A LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF TUTT ENERGY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARDS. THIS
TIGHT LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND APPEARS TO
BE MOVING SLIGHTLY SW ATTM. NAM12 TAKES MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN ADVECTS IT
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS. JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO HAS ANY
MERIT...LEFT SCT POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS IN PR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PERSONALLY DONT THINK IT WILL PAN OUT. EURO AND
GFS BOTH FLATTEN THE FEATURE AND TRACK IT INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN.
INTO NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL HIGH MOVES WEST ALLOWING DEEPER
EASTERLIES OVERHEAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. GOING WITH THE EURO
SOLUTION WHICH IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS SPIN UP A
WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARDS BEFORE RE-CURVING IT WELL NORTHEAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY LATE CYCLE AND BEGIN TO CUT OFF A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1253 PM AST THU OCT 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A PERSISTENT PATTEN OF ONLY
SCT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY REBUILDING OVER THE AREA
AFTER BEING WEAKENED BY MINOR PERTURBATION YESTERDAY. GFS/EURO
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS U/L LOW DIGS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING CLOSER
THE AREA BY LATE WEEKEND. STILL FAVORING THIS SOLUTION OVER THE
NAM WHICH REALLY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND OVER-AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGHING. A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE
U/L TO HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT OTHER THAN VENTILATION OF SCT
CONVECTIVE SEA BREEZE CELLS OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEKEND. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF PERSISTENT WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND PLENTY OF SUN FOR ALL BUT
WESTERN PR. THE ONLY WRENCH IN THIS SETUP WILL BE A LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF TUTT ENERGY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARDS. THIS
TIGHT LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND APPEARS TO
BE MOVING SLIGHTLY SW ATTM. NAM12 TAKES MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN ADVECTS IT
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS. JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO HAS ANY
MERIT...LEFT SCT POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS IN PR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PERSONALLY DONT THINK IT WILL PAN OUT. EURO AND
GFS BOTH FLATTEN THE FEATURE AND TRACK IT INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN.
INTO NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL HIGH MOVES WEST ALLOWING DEEPER
EASTERLIES OVERHEAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. GOING WITH THE EURO
SOLUTION WHICH IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS SPIN UP A
WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARDS BEFORE RE-CURVING IT WELL NORTHEAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY LATE CYCLE AND BEGIN TO CUT OFF A MID TO UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
It looks like a rather wet next few days are instored.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST THU OCT 1 2009
.UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING. LATEST MIMIC-TPW SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL AS THE 3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GFS MOVES THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR
PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST. THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN
SLOPES AND NORTHWEST COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...RESULTING
IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS EVENING NEAR 52 WEST. THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY
AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST THU OCT 1 2009
.UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING. LATEST MIMIC-TPW SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL AS THE 3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GFS MOVES THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR
PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST. THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN
SLOPES AND NORTHWEST COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...RESULTING
IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS EVENING NEAR 52 WEST. THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY
AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all.A wet friday here.And it looks like a wet period next week for the Eastern caribbean.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST FRI OCT 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LEAVING PUERTO RICO IN AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK WINDS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL FORM JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
TROUGHINESS THEN LINGERS WITH AN E-W ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL SPREAD WEST AND DOMINATE THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
DOMINATES THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND WILL HOLD THE RIDGE IN AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH A WEAK WIND SURGE
BEHIND IT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
SEEMS TO HAVE ENHANCED YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO MAGNIFY THEIR EFFECTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO TODAY...BUT MOISTURE DECREASES BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE BORNE
ON A TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 52 WEST WILL ENTER THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BUT MODELS SHOW MORE
ENHANCED MOISTURE THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD PROVE TO BE WETTER FOR THE AREA THAN THIS PAST WEEK.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST FRI OCT 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LEAVING PUERTO RICO IN AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK WINDS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL FORM JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
TROUGHINESS THEN LINGERS WITH AN E-W ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL SPREAD WEST AND DOMINATE THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
DOMINATES THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND WILL HOLD THE RIDGE IN AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH A WEAK WIND SURGE
BEHIND IT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
SEEMS TO HAVE ENHANCED YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY AND THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO MAGNIFY THEIR EFFECTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO TODAY...BUT MOISTURE DECREASES BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE BORNE
ON A TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 52 WEST WILL ENTER THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BUT MODELS SHOW MORE
ENHANCED MOISTURE THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD PROVE TO BE WETTER FOR THE AREA THAN THIS PAST WEEK.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 020905
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI OCT 2 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS...BUT SHOWERS WERE MORE FREQUENT OVER SAINT
THOMAS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
FOR TODAY...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE...SCATTED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 020905
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI OCT 2 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS...BUT SHOWERS WERE MORE FREQUENT OVER SAINT
THOMAS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
FOR TODAY...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE...SCATTED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 020539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR THE AZORES
HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 020539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR THE AZORES
HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N. STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN ONE OF THE CLUSTERS OF STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS
THE AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. ANY NEARBY
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS NEARBY APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 12N17W TO 7N25W 8N38W 8N44W 12N53W NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N64W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ALONG 10N14W 8N28W
9N28W...AND 12N41W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING AND DIGGING AND TAKING UP
LOTS OF SPACE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SENDING A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE
AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GUIDING
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS AUTUMN IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH
30N77W TO 25N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N82W. THE TAIL
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF
FLORIDA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W TO 17N82W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
WITH THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND IT IS DEFLECTED RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN
70W AND 77W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE WEATHER NEWS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GOES FROM 31N64W TO 27N70W TO
26N80W TO 24N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N48W TO 18N49W TO 10N49W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 47W
AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN
THE ITCZ ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE FACT THAT THIS AREA HAPPENS
TO BE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
24N26W TO 18N31W TO 10N40W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE EAST OF 50W. THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 28N30W 27N39W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 27N39W TO 31N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N21W 26N30W
25N41W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N. STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN ONE OF THE CLUSTERS OF STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS
THE AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. ANY NEARBY
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS NEARBY APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 12N17W TO 7N25W 8N38W 8N44W 12N53W NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N64W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ALONG 10N14W 8N28W
9N28W...AND 12N41W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING AND DIGGING AND TAKING UP
LOTS OF SPACE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SENDING A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE
AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GUIDING
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS AUTUMN IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH
30N77W TO 25N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N82W. THE TAIL
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF
FLORIDA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W TO 17N82W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
WITH THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND IT IS DEFLECTED RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN
70W AND 77W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE WEATHER NEWS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GOES FROM 31N64W TO 27N70W TO
26N80W TO 24N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N48W TO 18N49W TO 10N49W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 47W
AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN
THE ITCZ ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE FACT THAT THIS AREA HAPPENS
TO BE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
24N26W TO 18N31W TO 10N40W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE EAST OF 50W. THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 28N30W 27N39W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 27N39W TO 31N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N21W 26N30W
25N41W.
$$
MT
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 2, 2009 5:15 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
In the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave was located around 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Showers and thunderstorms should remain limited with this wave as it moves slowly west, as the environment should remain unfavorable for any further development.
Oct. 2, 2009 5:15 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
In the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave was located around 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Showers and thunderstorms should remain limited with this wave as it moves slowly west, as the environment should remain unfavorable for any further development.
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021054
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N. STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN ONE OF THE CLUSTERS OF STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE
AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA...ADDING TO THE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST IS THE PRIMARY SOURCE
OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR THE PRECIPITATION THAT
ALSO IS TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 12N17W TO 7N30W 8N44W 11N55W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 9N30W 12N41W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING AND DIGGING AND TAKING UP
LOTS OF SPACE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SENDING A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE
AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GUIDING
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS AUTUMN IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND BEYOND 18N80W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS
TO ANDROS ISLAND TO 18N80W...AND THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO
14N81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE
PART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA
AND IT IS DEFLECTED RAPIDLY EASTWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. EIGHT HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 63W
FROM 15N TO 20N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS
COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE WEATHER NEWS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GOES FROM 31N64W TO 28N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND BEYOND 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE BAHAMAS TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N48W TO 18N49W
TO 10N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE ITCZ
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE FACT THAT THIS AREA HAPPENS TO BE AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO
17N35W TO 10N40W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF
50W. THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N23W 29N30W 29N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W
AND 40W.
$$
MT
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good Morning
what is that "blob" over us?
this mornign is rainy and breezy on St. Maarten. although currently it is just overcast with no rain.
It feels good to be home!
what is that "blob" over us?
this mornign is rainy and breezy on St. Maarten. although currently it is just overcast with no rain.
It feels good to be home!
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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