WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[jones7954]

any probability of melor making a sw turn... or just heading west?

[cycloneye]

JTWC 0900z Warning=120kts

The track is a little more north than the past warning as the eye now passes Saipan around 67 miles to its north.



WTPN34 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.3N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.2N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.7N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.8N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.6N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 150.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TY 20W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY JUST UNDER SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH, CROSSING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS NEAR
SAIPAN NEAR TAU 24. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER TAU 72, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN RECURVING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 966
WTPQ52 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 14.5N 150.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 15.7N 147.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 040600UTC 17.3N 142.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 050600UTC 19.4N 136.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 060600UTC 24.3N 134.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
120HF 070600UTC 30.8N 136.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Local NWS GUAM Statement

000
WTPQ84 PGUM 021059
HLSPQ4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
859 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR ABOUT TO CROSS 150E ON ITS WAY TO THE MARIANAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...AGRIHAN AND
GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN... 295 MILES EAST OF
TINIAN...325 MILES EAST OF ROTA...360 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM AND 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. ISLANDS HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM
THE TYPHOON EYE WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. MELOR
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE ONSET
OF DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR UNINFORMED
OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. MARINERS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST SATURDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-022300-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
859 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED OR BE COMPLETED VERY SOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
100 MPH ON SAIPAN...WHICH WILL DESTROY WOOD AND TIN SHELTERS...AND
DAMAGE DOORS AND WINDOWS OF CONCRETE BUILDINGS. SECURE LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-
ROOF HOME...PREPARE NOW TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
BOAT OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT. STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...UP 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN VILLAGES AS OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE COMBINES WITH THE
STORM SURGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-022300-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
859 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM-
FORCE WINDS CAN SERIOUSLY DAMAGE POORLY CONSTRUCTED DWELLINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...PLAN TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT. STAY INFORMED AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST EXPOSURES. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 13 TO 17 FEET
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

$$

GUZ001-PMZ151-022300-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
859 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
GUAM IS IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION OF READINESS 2 AS OF 5 PM
FRIDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH CAN CAUSE
OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

$$

[cycloneye]

For the member who is in Saipan,here is the latest forecast.

Tonight...Damaging winds. North winds 10 to 20 mph...increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Scattered locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the evening...then numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 76.

Saturday...Damaging winds. Northwest winds 45 to 55 mph becoming west and increasing to 60 to 70 mph in the afternoon. Cloudy. Numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then occasional locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81.

Saturday Night...Damaging winds. Southwest winds 60 to 70 mph with gusts to 80 mph decreasing to 50 to 60 mph after midnight. Cloudy with occasional locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 75.

Sunday...Damaging winds. South winds 30 to 40 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=GUZ004

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 636
WTPQ22 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 14.7N 150.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 15.9N 147.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 040600UTC 17.3N 142.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 050600UTC 19.4N 136.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN34 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.9N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.6N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.5N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.5N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 149.4E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. TY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN NEAR TAU 24 AT NEAR SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
TY 20W TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

seems like we finally have a sane JTWC intensity forecast as the system recurves

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 270
WTPQ52 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 15.0N 149.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 16.7N 145.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 041200UTC 18.6N 140.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 051200UTC 20.7N 135.3E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 061200UTC 27.1N 133.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
120HF 071200UTC 32.8N 138.6E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

For the member who is in Saipan,here is the latest forecast.

Today...Damaging winds. Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph increasing to 55 to 65 mph. Cloudy. Numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning...then occasional locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84.

Tonight...Damaging winds. West winds 60 to 70 mph with gusts to 80 mph becoming southwest and decreasing to 50 to 60 mph after midnight. Cloudy with occasional locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 75.

Sunday...Damaging winds. South winds 30 to 40 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=GUZ004

[P.K.]

T6.0 from the JMA at 1800.

[jones7954]

is that another storm forming behind melor? or is that just part of the tail end of melor?

[P.K.]

Other than Parma and Melor there are no other tropical lows in the basin.

WTPQ22 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 15.4N 148.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 17.1N 144.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 041800UTC 18.6N 138.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 051800UTC 21.5N 133.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

[cycloneye]

WTPQ34 PGUM 021859
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
500 AM CHST SAT OCT 3 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.

AT 400 AM CHST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.8 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 205 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
215 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
260 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
305 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND
305 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CHST POSITION...15.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 148.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM.

$$

STANKO

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion from the 1500z warning by JTWC.

WDPN34 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY JUST BELOW
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY 20W HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM RJTD, KNES AND 102 KNOTS FROM
PGTW. THE SYSTEM STILL EXHIBITS AN EYE AS SEEN IN ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020919Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 020626Z SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING NEARLY 3
DEGREES FROM THE CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AS
IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THIS FORECAST SLIGHTLY FAVORING
THE EUROPEAN MODELS (ECMWF AND EGRR) IN THE NEAR TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AFTER TAU 72, AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MODIFIES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO AFTER TAU
72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPEED AND
SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE A MORE ZONAL ASPECT, AND MAKES LANDFALL
ON HONSHU NEAR KYOTO, JAPAN. NOGAPS AND GFDN TAKE A MORE SHARP
RECURVATURE, MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER EAST ON HONSHU, AND THE GFS
MODEL TURNS SHARPEST, REMAINING AT SEA SOUTH OF TOKYO. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPTH OF THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MODIFYING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS FURTHER
COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF TY 19W TO THE WEST, NEAR THE
PHILIPPINES. THE GFS MODEL FIELDS SHOW INTERACTION BETWEEN TY 19W
AND TY 20W IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THE GFS MODEL IS
THE ONLY NUMERICAL MODEL SHOWING THIS INTERACTION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR INTERACTION WITH TY 19W IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND THE TRACK TAKEN BY TY 19W. NEAR TAU 72
THE SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN TY 19W AND TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 900 NM. A WEAKER MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, OR LATER ARRIVAL,
WILL ALLOW TY 20W TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST, INCREASING THE
LIKELYHOOD OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TYPHOONS. WHILE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GOOD, IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THE
UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, TY 19W AND TY 20W.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC warning=110kts

WTPN34 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.6N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.5N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.0N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 30.9N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 36.3N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 148.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS LOST SOME INTENSITY OVER PAST 12 HOURS
AS WESTERN OUTFLOW HAS BEEN IMPINGED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 20W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM RJTD, AND 102 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXHIBITS A RAGGED EYE AND A 021402Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
EYEWALL OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. A GOOD QUIKSCAT PASS AT 020827Z AND A
021056Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ALMOST THREE
DEGREES FROM THE CENTER. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY,
BUT STAYING JUST UNDER SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR TERM, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE STR
AND CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPEED AND THE SHARPNESS OF THE
RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE STR WILL HAVE A
MORE ZONAL ASPECT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE FURTHER WEST AND
MAKING LANDFALL ON HONSHU NEAR KYOTO, JAPAN. NOGAPS AND GFDN RECURVE
SHARPER, FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER EAST ON
HONSHU, AND GFS AND EGRR MODELS TURN THE SHARPEST, FORECASTING THE
SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT SEA JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO. THE FORECAST IS FURTHER
COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF TY 19W TO THE WEST, NEAR THE
PHILIPPINES. THE GFS MODEL FIELDS SHOW POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION
BETWEEN TY 19W AND TY 20W IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS CONSENSUS AS IT ACCURATELY DEPICTS THE STRENGTH OF THE STR.
WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GOOD, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THE UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 19W AND TY 20W CREATE A VERY CHALLENGING
FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=115kts

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 147.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 147.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.4N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.0N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 32.0N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.9N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 147.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE.
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 022155Z SSMIS MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDED BY
BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITIES
FROM KNES, PGTW AND RJTD ALL ESTIMATE THE SYSTEM AT 6.0 (115 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN