Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI OCT 2 2009

PRC049-022100-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0311.000000T0000Z-091002T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-
259 PM AST FRI OCT 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN

FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING CULEBRA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND
AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 INCH IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 500 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS
ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 PM AST FRI OCT 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRYING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THEN MORE
MOISTURE AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING OVER THE AREA ATTM
BRINGING A FEW GUSTS AND SHOWERS BUT SO FAR UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THIS
WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS U/L REMAINS WEST
OF OUR AREA. BY MONDAY U/L MOVES OVER THE AREA AND FAVORS INDUCING
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION TO BRING MORE MOISTURE OVER REGION. NOT
CONFIDENT YET IN THE GFS SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO
MOIST...BUT THEY ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OVER 2.2 INCHES GOING INTO
MID WEEK. WILL LEAVE GRIDS AS THEY WERE. DRYING TREND TO TAKE
SHAPE WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK AND SENDS PW
PLUMMETING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030042
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
842 PM AST FRI OCT 2 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND TJPS FROM 03/0400-03/1200Z. EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJBQ
AND TJMZ BETWEEN 03/1800 AND 03/2200Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 022009
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST FRI OCT 2 2009

THERE WAS A MIXTURE OF CLOUDINESS AND SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WERE NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. IT WAS BREEZY...WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EARLY AT NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
THE WIND WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 25W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE.
HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 21W-23W...AND FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW
SUBSIDED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N21W 11N27W 9N33W
11N41W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AT THE AFRICA COAST FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM E OF LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 27N97W
CONTINUING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NRN GULF N
OF 28N. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 400
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF AND NRN
FLORIDA. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N105W. A SHORT
WAVE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS ERN CUBA WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
E OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 16N64W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N
W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N62W EXTENDING TO 27N76W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 69W-78W. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 77W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS NEAR 25N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
29N40W TO 17N50W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 51W-55W...AND BETWEEN 40W-47W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N52W TO
14N54W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
16N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUING FROM A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG
31N23W TO 28N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 13N27W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 2, 2009 5:07 pm ET
In the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave was located around 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Showers and thunderstorms should remain limited with this wave as it moves slowly west, as the environment should remain unfavorable for any further development.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
842 PM AST FRI OCT 2 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

[cycloneye]

Good Morning
what is that "blob" over us?
this mornign is rainy and breezy on St. Maarten. although currently it is just overcast with no rain.
It feels good to be home!

That was caused by a low level disturbance in the trade wind flow that moved thru today.

Good that you are back in ST Marteen.

[Gustywind]

Good morning all .
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SAT OCT 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW EAST OF JAMAICA WILL MOVE
SOUTH ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO RELAX
SOMEWHAT. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE AREA UNTIL IT SHIFTS BACK
WESTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE EAST
ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE WEEK AND STRENGTHENS IN PLACE
DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE
ITCZ WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH NEAR 55 WEST
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE MOVES WEST. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEAKENED WIND SURGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND TROUGH WITH AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IS ECLIPSED BY A STRONGER TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A SMALL PATCH OF DRIER AIR
JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND EXPLAINS WHY SHOWERS ARE STRONGEST
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MODELS STILL ANTICIPATE
THE DRIER AIR PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STEEP
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE FIRST TROUGH OF THE NEW WEEK MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WETTER WEEK FOR
PUERTO RICO. TROUGHS...SHOWERS AND WIND SURGES ALL MOVE THROUGH IN
ORDERLY SUCCESSION. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF PUERTO RICO...AND MAY CAUSE SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...EVEN MUDSLIDES IN THE LOCALLY
STEEP TERRAIN...BETTER RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WHEN THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MORE TROUGHS ROLL THROUGH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY. AFT
16Z...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJBQ
BETWEEN 03/18-22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY...AS WINDS
INCREASE. ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS AND SEAS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

71/12

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 030855
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST SAT OCT 3 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS SAINT THOMAS...PRODUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
LESS THAN 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ONLY SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT...TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. REMAINING MOSTLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND CIMSS WAVETRAK
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED IN CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
42W-47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
8N-17N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N26W 10N28W 8N34W
10N43W 11N47W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N88W AND CONTINUES W THEN SW
ALONG 29N90W 28N95W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND
NE GULF REMAINING N OF 28N. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AS MOSTLY STABLE NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF ON ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N104W. S
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIGHT SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN U.S. PLAINS BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RATHER TRANQUIL AND CALM TONIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO NLY WINDS ON
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 77W IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 70W-80W. ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN...FRESH SE TRADES ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF A
LINE FROM GRENADA THROUGH 15N65W TO S/CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN E OF 80W...WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND FAR W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N W OF 73W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST FLORIDA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 76W. FARTHER TO THE E...ANOTHER AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS ERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NW TO 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO RESIDES ON THE
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N59W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 28N71W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N31W
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N32W TO 17N50W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 29N BETWEEN 25W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. NEAR THE WRN
EXTENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 40W-52W. FARTHER SW...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N50W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N54W TO 14N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ON A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N28W AND IS
PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ E OF 45W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

Active Pacific, quiet Atlantic
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 3, 2009 6:10 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

A series of disorganized tropical waves were producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for any tropical cyclone formation in this area, as upper-level winds remain fast from the west.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

It looks like next week will be a rather wet one for the Eastern Caribbean islands as troughs and waves will move thru.

[msbee]

good morning Luis
We can use the rain here, so I guess a wet week will be a good thing, as long as it's not too much at one time.

Barbara

[jedsshed]

Good morning to all.

It looks like next week will be a rather wet one for the Eastern Caribbean islands as troughs and waves will move thru.

Do you think they will drift north enough to help us out in the NE Caribbean? Last week's "blob" hung around several days, but I only recorded 1/4" of rain.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

It looks like next week will be a rather wet one for the Eastern Caribbean islands as troughs and waves will move thru.

Do you think they will drift north enough to help us out in the NE Caribbean? Last week's "blob" hung around several days, but I only recorded 1/4" of rain.

It depends on what kind of interaction will be between the troughs and tropical waves to have then a big rain event for the NE Caribbean.