AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST SAT OCT 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THUS FAR...WITH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AFFECTING SECTIONS OF THE METRO AREA AND AGUADILLA. STILL
EXPECT A FEW MORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...FOCUSING ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE INVERTED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR 55 WEST...TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY...WITH
THE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE REINFORCING THIS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 032014
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 PM AST SAT OCT 3 2009
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN ISOLATED
AREAS BUT OVERALL THE ISLANDS WERE RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL
UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 032014
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 PM AST SAT OCT 3 2009
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN ISOLATED
AREAS BUT OVERALL THE ISLANDS WERE RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL
UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031726
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN A BROAD SWATH
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 23W-40W AS
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VERY LITTLE
CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED ACROSS THE
ATLC WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 44W-50W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ILL-DEFINED WAVE JUST TO THE E OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SLIGHT MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 9N33W 8N39W 9N47W
8N55W 10N65W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF ENTERING THE AREA
BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO ACROSS S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF BETWEEN TUXPAN AND TAMPICO TO S FLORIDA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF TEXAS TO N OF 28N W OF 92W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO
TO TUXPAN. THE AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MENTIONED
ABOVE IS GIVING THE GULF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED BY
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N76W AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRY STABLE AIR BETWEEN
80W-84W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 72W-80W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N TO INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-70W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W AND ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERS
THE W ATLC N OF 26W W OF 76W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80.5W OFF THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA TO 29N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
24N65W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
67W-71W...FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 71W-76W...AND N OF 28N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 67W-78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N55W
THROUGH A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 17N56W TO 13N56W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 53W-58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC
EXTENDING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N21W
SW ALONG 28N37W 28N50W TO 27N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF
30N...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE TROUGH FROM 27W-42W...AND N OF
23N FROM 42W-52W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 11N/12N TO 50W
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
THE ITCZ. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CUTS A SWATH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 20N-25N WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N253W.
$$
WALLACE
AXNT20 KNHC 031726
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN A BROAD SWATH
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 23W-40W AS
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VERY LITTLE
CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED ACROSS THE
ATLC WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 44W-50W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ILL-DEFINED WAVE JUST TO THE E OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER
LOW. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SLIGHT MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 9N33W 8N39W 9N47W
8N55W 10N65W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF ENTERING THE AREA
BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO ACROSS S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF BETWEEN TUXPAN AND TAMPICO TO S FLORIDA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF TEXAS TO N OF 28N W OF 92W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO
TO TUXPAN. THE AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MENTIONED
ABOVE IS GIVING THE GULF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED BY
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N76W AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRY STABLE AIR BETWEEN
80W-84W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 72W-80W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N TO INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-70W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W AND ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERS
THE W ATLC N OF 26W W OF 76W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80.5W OFF THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA TO 29N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
24N65W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
67W-71W...FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 71W-76W...AND N OF 28N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 67W-78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N55W
THROUGH A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 17N56W TO 13N56W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 53W-58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC
EXTENDING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N21W
SW ALONG 28N37W 28N50W TO 27N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF
30N...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE TROUGH FROM 27W-42W...AND N OF
23N FROM 42W-52W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 11N/12N TO 50W
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
THE ITCZ. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CUTS A SWATH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 20N-25N WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N253W.
$$
WALLACE
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Just an observation 
: given my untrained eyes of amateur...seems that the twave near the 47W continues to exhibit a pretty decent sat pic appareance since the early morning hours 8AM. This twave and the other one just east of the Leewards could bring wet weather conditions beginning tommorow as Meteo-France mentionned in their latest weather forecast. As usual let's wait and see what could happen... even if the season continues to be very quiet.
: given my untrained eyes of amateur...seems that the twave near the 47W continues to exhibit a pretty decent sat pic appareance since the early morning hours 8AM. This twave and the other one just east of the Leewards could bring wet weather conditions beginning tommorow as Meteo-France mentionned in their latest weather forecast. As usual let's wait and see what could happen... even if the season continues to be very quiet.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good mornig to all.This week will be a wet one for many in the Eastern Caribbean.Lets see how much rain falls.Watching wave at 35W in case it develops.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW SOUTH OF JAMAICA WILL SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST AND PASS OVER
PUERTO RICO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST ON
FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FIRST AND THEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS MUCH AS ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL
IN SOME AREAS OF VIEQUES AND NAGUABO. LESSER AMOUNTS FELL IN MUCH
OF EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PUERTO RICO. ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND INSIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS FELL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MIMIC LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING AT ABOUT 4 DEGREES PER DAY TOWARD THE WEST AND SHOULD CROSS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING IN THE USVI AND INTO PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES...BUT EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAIRLY WEAK PLAYERS AND THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO MAKE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. THEREFORE RAIN AMOUNTS...
THOUGH HEAVY IN PLACES...SHOULD NOT POSE THE THREAT OF WIDE
SPREAD FLOODING. THE NAM CREATES WHAT IS BELIEVED TO BE A SPURIOUS
LOW WHICH INDUCES 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE SURFACE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE GONE WITH GFS
WIND SPEEDS OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD NEVERTHELESS INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...MORE HOWEVER AT 850 MB THAN AT THE SURFACE. BANDS
OF MOISTURE APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOLLOWED
BY MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY NEXT AND FOLLOWING. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING
TO ALMOST 17 NORTH BY THE TUESDAY AFTER NEXT...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
SOON IN THE SEASON.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE GENERAL
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SO THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM MORE
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE
AFTER 04/20Z THROUGH 05/18Z.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW SOUTH OF JAMAICA WILL SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST AND PASS OVER
PUERTO RICO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST ON
FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FIRST AND THEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS MUCH AS ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL
IN SOME AREAS OF VIEQUES AND NAGUABO. LESSER AMOUNTS FELL IN MUCH
OF EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PUERTO RICO. ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND INSIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS FELL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MIMIC LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING AT ABOUT 4 DEGREES PER DAY TOWARD THE WEST AND SHOULD CROSS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING IN THE USVI AND INTO PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES...BUT EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAIRLY WEAK PLAYERS AND THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO MAKE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. THEREFORE RAIN AMOUNTS...
THOUGH HEAVY IN PLACES...SHOULD NOT POSE THE THREAT OF WIDE
SPREAD FLOODING. THE NAM CREATES WHAT IS BELIEVED TO BE A SPURIOUS
LOW WHICH INDUCES 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE SURFACE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE GONE WITH GFS
WIND SPEEDS OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD NEVERTHELESS INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...MORE HOWEVER AT 850 MB THAN AT THE SURFACE. BANDS
OF MOISTURE APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOLLOWED
BY MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY NEXT AND FOLLOWING. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING
TO ALMOST 17 NORTH BY THE TUESDAY AFTER NEXT...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
SOON IN THE SEASON.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE GENERAL
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SO THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM MORE
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE
AFTER 04/20Z THROUGH 05/18Z.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 040859
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND THE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
FOR TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...EXPECT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR 59 WEST...TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 040859
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND THE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
FOR TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...EXPECT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR 59 WEST...TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Latest observations in Guadeloupe:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at Oct 04, 2009 - 07:00 AM EDTOct 04, 2009 -
Wind Variable at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TFFR 041100Z VRB03KT 9999 FEW016CB SCT020 BKN230 26/24 Q1014 RETS NOSIG
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Oct 04 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) Variable 3
6 AM (10) Oct 04 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NW 8 thunder in the vicinity
5 AM (9) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) NNW 3 thunder in the vicinity
4 AM (8) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 1 thunder in the vicinity
3 AM (7) Oct 04 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) WNW 2 thunder in the vicinity
2 AM (6) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 1
1 AM (5) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) Calm
Midnight (4) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) Calm
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.htmlCurrent Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at Oct 04, 2009 - 07:00 AM EDTOct 04, 2009 -
Wind Variable at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TFFR 041100Z VRB03KT 9999 FEW016CB SCT020 BKN230 26/24 Q1014 RETS NOSIG
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Oct 04 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) Variable 3
6 AM (10) Oct 04 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NW 8 thunder in the vicinity
5 AM (9) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) NNW 3 thunder in the vicinity
4 AM (8) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 1 thunder in the vicinity
3 AM (7) Oct 04 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) WNW 2 thunder in the vicinity
2 AM (6) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 1
1 AM (5) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) Calm
Midnight (4) Oct 04 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) Calm
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041040
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 33W-43W AS
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED PRIMARILY W OF THE WAVE AXIS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 33W-44W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RATHER
WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS WAVE EXHIBITS A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
48W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING BETWEEN 72W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 73W-78W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N34W 9N39W 9N51W 9N54W
8N61W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST FROM
TALLAHASSEE TO NEW ORLEANS AND INTO INTERIOR SRN TEXAS NEAR
GALVESTON. MOSTLY SELY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF. THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL SLY
RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
27N W OF 86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N97W. ELSEWHERE...THE
GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS THE NLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT KEEPS STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF S OF 27N.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOCUSED ON AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N77W. COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NLY WINDS ALOFT ARE
PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR W OF 80W AND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COUPLED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-79W. E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF MOIST SWLY FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 63W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N58W TO
15N59W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 170 NM W OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS
ALONG 73W. THIS TROUGHING EXTENDS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROUGH ACROSS ERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE ERN U.S.
SEABOARD TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
OBSERVED WITH THIS FRONT...HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
NOTICEABLY LOWER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-73W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THIS AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-73W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER TO THE E...A WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N45W TO 25N54W. SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BEING
GENERATING ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 24N50W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N58W TO 15N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
58W-62W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES N OF 24N E OF 45W. EMBEDDED WITH THIS FLOW ALOFT IS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N30W TO 27N36W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE TROPICS EXTENDING TO 50W...WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLC.
$$
HUFFMAN
AXNT20 KNHC 041040
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 33W-43W AS
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED PRIMARILY W OF THE WAVE AXIS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 33W-44W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RATHER
WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS WAVE EXHIBITS A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
48W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING BETWEEN 72W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 73W-78W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N34W 9N39W 9N51W 9N54W
8N61W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST FROM
TALLAHASSEE TO NEW ORLEANS AND INTO INTERIOR SRN TEXAS NEAR
GALVESTON. MOSTLY SELY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF. THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL SLY
RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
27N W OF 86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N97W. ELSEWHERE...THE
GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS THE NLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT KEEPS STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF S OF 27N.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOCUSED ON AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N77W. COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NLY WINDS ALOFT ARE
PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR W OF 80W AND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COUPLED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-79W. E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF MOIST SWLY FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 63W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N58W TO
15N59W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 170 NM W OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS
ALONG 73W. THIS TROUGHING EXTENDS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROUGH ACROSS ERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE ERN U.S.
SEABOARD TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
OBSERVED WITH THIS FRONT...HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
NOTICEABLY LOWER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-73W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THIS AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-73W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
STRONGEST. FARTHER TO THE E...A WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N45W TO 25N54W. SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BEING
GENERATING ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 24N50W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N58W TO 15N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
58W-62W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES N OF 24N E OF 45W. EMBEDDED WITH THIS FLOW ALOFT IS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N30W TO 27N36W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE TROPICS EXTENDING TO 50W...WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLC.
$$
HUFFMAN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Looks like some wet weather coming our way
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Too many hurricanes to remember
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:Looks like some wet weather coming our way
Seems that you're right Msbee
. Sun is trying to shine right now, but menacing clouds continue to appear in vicinity of my location, let's wait and see...
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
right now we are having a heavy rain shower
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Too many hurricanes to remember
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Folks,this is the start of a wet week as I said here in past days.There are three systems alined for this week.The last one in the line at 40W is the one we have to watch for tropical development.Lets see how it all pans out in terms of amounts of rainfall and if that wave develops or not.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
3 systems Luis?
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:Folks,this is the start of a wet week as I said here in past days.There are three systems alined for this week.The last one in the line at 40W is the one we have to watch for tropical development.Lets see how it all pans out in terms of amounts of rainfall and if that wave develops or not.
Interresting analysis Luis, you're right for the alined twaves, and agree with you concerning the last one near the 40W. Things are reheating up a bit, but but first let's wait and...see what really could happen.
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