WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[cycloneye]

N33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.8N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.3N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.3N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 119.7E.
TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. PARMA REMAINS AT TYPHOON STRENGTH, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY
A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN TAIWAN WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE
OVERRIDDEN BY THE EFFECTS OF UPWELLING. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS PROJECTED TO LINGER OFF THE COAST OF
LUZON FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY SOLUTION
THAT TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING TO THE EAST AND BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. THE OTHER AVAILABLE AIDS EVENTUALLY BUILD IN
RIDGING TO THE WEST (OVER CHINA) AND SLOWLY TRACK THE TYPHOON INTO
THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, THE GFS SOLUTION CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING (AND
ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES) JUST TO THE NORTH, A WESTWARD TRACK IS ALSO
METEOROLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

[alan1961]

And to add to all this mayem the phillippines has just been hit with a 6.5 quake

Magnitude Mw 6.5
Region MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Date time 2009-10-04 at 10:58:01.0 UTC
Location 6.74 N ; 123.51 E
Depth 628 km
Distances 98 km SW Cotabato (pop 179,433 ; local time 18:58 2009-10-04)
63 km W Kalamansig (pop 12,821 ; local time 18:58 2009-10-04)
57 km W Gadung (pop 2,456 ; local time 18:58 2009-10-04)
More seismicity information (Moment tensors, phases pickings, etc.)

[leanne_uk]

the pacific is having the worst luck ever. The past 10 days have saw everything thrown at it

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=60kts

PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 028
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.2N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.8N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.4N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 119.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM
BECAUSE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 65 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W
(MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[cat.4]

哇，美国朋友也在关注西太平洋，太令人兴奋了，我觉得“芭马”还是有可能达到CAT.1以上的
-------------------------------------------------------
这是我们CMA的网址http://www.zjwater.com/typhoneweb/

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon Parma kills 17 in the Philippines
IANS 4 October 2009, 02:08pm IST

MANILA: At least 17 people were killed after the powerful typhoon Parma pummelled the north-eastern Philippines, cutting off power and communication in at least five provinces, officials said on Sunday.

Authorities said damage reports were piling up after typhoon Parma swept through extreme northern provinces overnight.

"The typhoon caused a lot of damage, but we are still assessing the situation," said Chito Castro, director of a regional civil defence office. "In our camp alone, the destruction was massive, with many uprooted trees and toppled electric posts."

Most of the reported fatalities were in two landslides in Benguet province, 210 km north of Manila.

Seven people, including two children, died when a landslide swept a house at the edge of a ravine in Itogon town at the height of Parma's onslaught, said Senior Superintendent Loreto Espinili, the provincial police commander.

The bodies of the victims, who included two children, were found at the foot of the 200-metre ravine.

Espinili said five people were also killed in a landslide in nearby La Trinidad town, also in Benguet.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council said one man died when he fell from his roof and a two-year-old drowned while crossing a swollen spillway in the eastern province of Camarines Sur.

One man died from hypothermia and another drowned in floods in the northern province of Isabela, while one was swept by away by strong river currents in Pangasinan province, police said.

The mountain resort city of Baguio was hit with flashfloods, forcing thousands of people to flee their homes. Several roads in nearby mountain towns remained impassable due to landslides.

Typhoon Parma slammed into the Philippines Saturday with maximum winds of 175kph, forcing nearly 170,000 people to flee their homes amid warnings of devastating effects.

The entire provinces of Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga and Abra were without power since Saturday, while a large portion of Mountain province also experienced outages.

Parma's winds toppled trees and ripped roofs off houses, while heavy rains caused floods and landslides that damaged crops and blocked roads.

The typhoon spared Manila and surrounding provinces that were devastated by the worst flooding in over 40 years caused by storm Ketsana, which killed 288 people with 42 still missing.

Over 3 million people were still recovering from the floods, including more than 370,000 staying in evacuation centres.

The weather bureau said Parma has weakened after crossing extreme northern Philippines on its way out to the South China Sea.

The typhoon, however, was almost stationary between the Philippines' northern tip and Taiwan.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 928
WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 19.9N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 20.2N 119.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 061200UTC 19.3N 119.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 071200UTC 18.4N 118.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 641
WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 20.0N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 20.0N 119.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 061200UTC 19.3N 119.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 071200UTC 18.4N 118.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Land did a lot to Parma

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.2N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.6N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.4N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 119.3E. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DRAMATIC DROP IN CONVECTION
IN AND AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG WITH A
DEFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE
FEATURES ARE ATTRIBUTED TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
THAT IS PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 041520Z TRMM IMAGE
AT 37GHZ SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD STRUCTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH WELL FORMED MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH TAU
36. THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OUTSIDE
OF THE INFLUENCES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 48. AT TAU 72 THE STR
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND SLOWLY
STEER THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. STRONG COLD WATER
UPWELLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WEAK TYPHOON. THERE
IS AN EXPECTATION THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY
AVAILABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AND WILL START TO WEAKEN SOONER. OBJECTIVE
AID GUIDANCE REMAINS POOR AS NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT GFDN, NOGAPS, AND JGSM ALL
CALL FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. ECMWF, UKMO AND
GFS MAINTAIN A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, AFTER THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

In pretty bad shape

[HURAKAN]

Very large center

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Waening=55kts

WTPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.9N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.0N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.3N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 119.3E. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH WEAK BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND SLOWLY
ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Geoff Mackley and I are safe in Laoag, NW Luzon. We travelled along the north coast road yesterday and it was extremely dangerous with flash floods swamping the route all along the coast. Laoag has power but all areas east of here do not. The first floor of our hotel is submerged. Just about to head out to cover flooding around town.

More video/photos can be found at http://www.typhoonfury.com and The Weather Channel are airing some footage now too.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 847
WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 20.1N 119.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 19.8N 119.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 070000UTC 19.2N 119.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 080000UTC 18.5N 118.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Convection coming back

[wyq614]

JTWC seems to be predicting that PARMA be trapped there for 4 more days, hope that Parma won't be a WPAC Jokwe...

[HURAKAN]

Getting better

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.5N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY RE-BUILD NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE STORM DUE TO RECENTLY IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE REBOUNDED TO A 3.5, OR
55 KNOTS. THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 5 DAYS, AND WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW TYPHOON CLASSIFICATION.
UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER AND A FAIRLY MERIDIONAL TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN (PENETRATING DEEP INTO THE TROPICS) WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODEL FIELDS THAT
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF
THE STORM (FROM THE SOUTHWEST) AND GUIDE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 951
WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 20.0N 119.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 19.6N 119.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 070600UTC 18.4N 119.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE SSW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 080600UTC 17.5N 118.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE SSW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 090600UTC 17.2N 117.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
120HF 100600UTC 17.1N 116.0E 300NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =
NNNN