
Shot at 2009-10-03
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southerngale wrote:Jeff, is that primarily for the Houston area or do we face the same flash flood threat over here? I've been sick for days and completely out of it. I had no idea that it might even rain until today.
vbhoutex wrote:vbhoutex wrote:That storm was presenting a pretty decent hook echo for a while to the NW of Ganado. Looks less pronounced mow, but people in the path need to be very alert since these can pop right back(id it was a tornado).
Following up on this. I haven't heard nay reports on this, but there was a very pronounced hook echo as it went through Ganado. Hopefully there was no touchdown. No evidence of a hook at this time.
Excessive rainfall resulting in flash flooding across C and SC TX this morning.
Overnight impressive rainfall totals of 5-8 inches were recorded over the Comal, Guadalupe, Lavaca, Bee, and Gonzales County area. This includes CoCoRaHS reports of: 8.01" near New Berlin with 2.21" in 51 minutes, 6.32 inches at San Marcos, 7.16 inches in Comal County, and 5.80 inches in 2 hours in Comal County.
Warm front is finally progressing northward over SE TX while approaching strong short wave has induced meso low pressure N of VCT with a developing squall line extending south of this feature. Tropical tap from Olaf remains in place and AM CRP sounding showed 2.45 inches of PW so the air mass is just about as moist as it gets. Widespread 1-2" has fallen so far W of I-45 with 3-5 inches of Wharton and Jackson Counties and even higher totals just west of that.
Concern today will be the advance of the next short wave and then the possible southward movement of the warm frontal boundary tonight keeping he heavy rainfall focus over the area. Expect to see the development to our west push through the region this afternoon with a break in the rains following. Next impulse will swing into SW TX this afternoon and possibly fire off more storms. Mid level heights will begin to build as noted on the CRP sounding, but if we get any breaks behind the departing short wave this may be enough to overcome the developing unfavorable capping. Other issue is what to do with the low level boundary. Current incoming convection may send the boundary back south into the coastal waters which places us back into the same situation as yesterday. Hard to call such a highly meso-scale setup...so will opt to see how things place out convectively this afternoon and then pin point the threat for excessive rainfall for tonight into Monday. While models favor our northern counties...I am not so sure the threat will be that far north.
As mentioned before this air mass is completely saturated from the surface through about 300mb, PWS of 2.25-2.45 inches, slow moving/training convection, and low level boundary all point to a flash flood threat. Rainfall totals overnight have proven the ability of this air mass to produce some quick high rainfall rates. Will continue with an additional 1-3 inches widespread with isolated 4-6 inches possible. Would not be surprised to see a few 8-10 inch totals by Monday morning especially over our western and SW counties where storms have been tending to anchor.
srainhoutx wrote:Keep an eye on Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. Almost appears a Meso Low is developing which would bring very heavy rainfall to those areas.
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