Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

3 systems Luis?

Hey Msbee in my humble opinion and with my untrained eyes of amateur , I tkink that he includes the system crossing the Leewards right now, the second near the 52W and the third one (the twave with the yellow code near the 40W). Humm maybe Luis could help us and explain where's the third system? when he speaks about three systems lol :).

[cycloneye]

Barbara,Gustywind said the three.

[Gustywind]

From the weather site of Stormcarib.com:
Sunday, October 4, 2009 07:17AM EDT - Restless October
http://www.stormcarib.com/

Sunday, October 4, 2009 07:17AM EDT - Restless October


Good morning,

After a return from the great Northwest USA, I come back to the tropics with a pensive eye.

In the ever active Pacific, we have Typhoon Parma west of the Phillipines, and Super Typhoon Melor with winds an estimated 165 mph! The satellite image shows almost a perfect pinwheel and Melor is a force to be reckoned with! In addition, the Pac Rim throws in another earthquake this morning off the coast of Indonesia. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all.

Here in the Caribbean, September was super duper quiet, especially considering the last 10 years of activity. Not only quiet, but dry. That is proven by the high amount of water truck activity! However, that looks like it's about to change quite rapidly starting tonight. A tropical wave along 52W has consolidated overnight and looks to be heading directly towards the northern Antilles over the next 12-24 hours. While it is forecast to lose much of it's punch due to our ever protective upper level wind shear, I'm not so sure. Rain soon come!!!! Widespread flooding should not be an issue but isolated pockets will occur.

The next wave, currently around 37W, has blown up considerably and occupies a large area of the central Atlantic basin. It actually is more impressive than some of our earlier systems, at least on infared satellite. Once again, upper level wind shear is keeping this system at bay. Still, it should bring considerable rains later in the upcoming week.

While development of either of these systems is unlikely, they cannot be discounted entirely. Remember, Erika survived for quite some time in such a hostile environment!
Dave

[msbee]

Here is the latest tropical weather discussion from crownweather:

Issued: Sunday, October 4, 2009 935 am EDT

For the Tropical Weather Discussion with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325 .

I am keeping an eye on a tropical wave now located about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance has increased overnight and it should be watched closely for possible development. The environment around this disturbance is currently somewhat favorable for development as satellite imagery is showing some outflow with the convection which may be an indicator of a high pressure system trying to build over it.

This tropical disturbance is tracking to the west at a forward speed of 15 to 20 mph and this westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days or so. By about Tuesday, a trough of low pressure to this disturbance's north may try to tug it more to the west-northwest or northwest. All indications are that this disturbance may affect the Leeward Islands by Wednesday or Thursday. Depending on how much of a northward tug that trough of low pressure causes will determine whether this system enters the Caribbean or pulls north of Puerto Rico. The wind shear values are such that some development, perhaps into a tropical depression, is possible over the next two to three days. None of the computer forecast guidance shows significant development of this disturbance, so I suspect based on everything that I see that slow development is possible over the next 2 to 3 days or so.

Even if this disturbance does not develop, there will be an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the Lesser Antilles by about Wednesday. I will be monitoring this disturbance closely and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Monday.

[Gustywind]

Barbara,Gustywind said the three.

this guy is incredible!

[jedsshed]

It appears the wave just to our east will be as good a chance as ever for some much needed rain. There are currently heavy clouds in the area and we have had a sprinkle or two so far this morning.

I'm worried about the track once the wave near 40W becomes an Invest.

[msbee]

yep, that is the one to watch

[msbee]

OK, guys
3 or 2?
who's on first?

[Gustywind]

OK, guys
3 or 2?
who's on first?

[Gustywind]

Looks like a possible trafficjam is pointing at the horizon for the next twaves east of the islands...

[Gustywind]

Atlantic wave, w. Pacific Super Typhoon
Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 4, 2009 10:24 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

There is a small area of low pressure along the southern end of a tropical wave around 8N and 40W moving to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. A large area of shower and thunderstorm activity accompanies the wave and low. Environment conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development of this system over the next few days. We will monitor the system for any further strengthening.

Another area of showers and thunderstorms blossomed Sunday morning east of the northern Lesser Antilles. This area is not expected to develop, but brings heavy rain to the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Monday.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041539
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1139 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING WEST
SOUTHWEST FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND REACHING THE EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED QUICKLY
PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE MINIMAL.

LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THOSE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUED TO SHOW A MARKED INCREASE IN THE LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH VALUES NOW BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.30 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC/TPW PRODUCT ALSO CONFIRMED INCREASING PWAT
VALUES QUICKLY APPROACHING THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
EXPECT INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS APPROACHING
TROUGH LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
LOCAL WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS WILL PLAY THE MAJOR ROLL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE
ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ON OR TWO OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE JUST YET TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS
AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OF PR AND USVI DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOCAL WX RADAR...OBS AND SIGNETS ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN INDICATED SHRA AND TSRA OCCURRING IN AND AROUND
TNCM...TKPK AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS WITH MAX TOPS NR 48 KFT MOV
WEST AROUND 20 KTS. EXPECT INCRG ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING
THE DAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS. ACROSS PR AND USVI
EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS OF PR WITH
TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA BTW 04/17-23Z.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 041509
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS FEATURE
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WAS MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. LOCALLY... NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER
LAND...HOWEVER LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE WINDS WERE FROM EAST NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOCAL EFFECTS...AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST END OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL
MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...TO BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE ISLANDS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[expat2carib]

I wonder what's the weather like in the others carib islands from the south? Expat2Carib what's up in Dominica? Hope you're fine... ant the others too. Please my friends keep us informed as usual

Here it's thunder and lightning and some moderate showers. Is everybody enjoying their sunday?

[Gustywind]

I wonder what's the weather like in the others carib islands from the south? Expat2Carib what's up in Dominica? Hope you're fine... ant the others too. Please my friends keep us informed as usual

Here it's thunder and lightning and some moderate showers. Is everybody enjoying their sunday?

Ok tkanks to keep us informed my friend Glad to see you here Expat2Carib ! Tkinks are hopefully a bit quiet in my location but weather is always very grey, overcast here but no showers, winds are calm. I appreciate simply my Sunday

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN
BE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER A LARGE
AREA FROM 7N16N BETWEEN 34W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

PRC075-113-149-042100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0315.091004T1857Z-091004T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
257 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ AND PONCE

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 253 PM AST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THESE MUNICIPALITIES. AT LEAST UNTIL 500 PM AST...THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6657 1814 6659 1815 6656 1815 6650
1808 6644 1803 6650

$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

PRC011-083-093-097-121-125-042130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0314.091004T1834Z-091004T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
ANASCO PR-
234 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ AND
ANASCO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 226 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS OR TOWARDS THESE AREAS.
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE SO FAR BEEN BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. AT LEAST UNTIL 530 PM...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN INCH
OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN...OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.
THIS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO
RICO ON MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...TO REACH THE U.S. VI AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO BY DAY BREAK...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE
MORNING. WHILE THE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE IS FEEDING SOME MOISTURE
INTO THIS DISTURBANCE...THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT WAS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AS IT INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHED THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LAST NIGHT...AND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER FLARE UP JUST AS IT APPROACHES THE VI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OF PR AND USVI THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA AT LEAST TIL 04/22Z. ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOCAL WX RADAR AND OBS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN INDICATED SHRA AND TSRA OCCURRING IN AND AROUND TNCM...TKPK
AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS WITH MAX TOPS NR 48 KFT MOV WEST
AT 15-20 KTS. EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN
INTENSIFY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRINGING
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VI AND TJSJ BY 05/12Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN