ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

[leanne_uk]

i will take the cooler waters answer and enjoy this little gem of activity

[pepeavilenho]

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[JonathanBelles]

ABNT20 KNHC 050111
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
AZORES
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

FINALLY

[HURAKAN]

05/0000 UTC 40.1N 21.2W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

They haved been reading this thread.

[Macrocane]

Unbelievable!! I thought the NHC was not going to care about this system. Grace we're waiting for you!

[breeze]

They haved been reading this thread.

LOL, I was just thinking the same thing!

[JonathanBelles]

This was odd for me. I sent the following email 20 minutes prior to the STWO:

Code: Select all

Hello Mr. Brown,

All of us at Storm2k.org are watching Invest 90L-recently reactivated.  It has had an eye on satellite on and off the last couple days and has had a sustained eye all day today.  Numerous of the cyclone phase analysis graphics place 90L very close to symmetric warm core.  It has winds of 40kts and a pressure of 992 (984 when it was closer to the Azores).  This to many of our members would be a Tropical Storm or at least a Subtropical Storm.  The satellite presentation appears as if it is a Hurricane.

Kindly, we would like a small explanation of why 90L is just that, an invest and nothing more.

Warm Regards,

Jonathan Belles.
Weather Enthusiast and Future Meteorologist
Storm2k.org member

The time of the email was 8:46pm ET. I am in no way saying I was the cause of the upgrade, but it was pure coincidence. I have not received a response, but if I do, I will post it.

[tropicana]

really well written! let us know if you get any response personally.
it would be interesting to as their reasoning not having it upgraded even as it passed through the Azores on Thursday.

=justin=

[Macrocane]

Don't me so humble fact789, thanks to you we may have another named storm this season

[Evil Jeremy]

This could go from code yellow to code red to classified system in 3 hours. What is the record for shortest invest to storm? I think it is Humberto. Would this take over that record, seeing how it was deactivated and then reactivated as an invest?

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[JonathanBelles]

Don't me so humble fact789, thanks to you we may have another named storm this season

I dont think I was the cause, but it was quite funny when the bot in chat popped up with the new TWO.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 90, 2009100500, , BEST, 0, 402N, 213W, 55, 990, EX

55 knots

[expat2carib]

This was odd for me. I sent the following email 20 minutes prior to the STWO:

Code: Select all

Hello Mr. Brown,

All of us at Storm2k.org are watching Invest 90L-recently reactivated.  It has had an eye on satellite on and off the last couple days and has had a sustained eye all day today.  Numerous of the cyclone phase analysis graphics place 90L very close to symmetric warm core.  It has winds of 40kts and a pressure of 992 (984 when it was closer to the Azores).  This to many of our members would be a Tropical Storm or at least a Subtropical Storm.  The satellite presentation appears as if it is a Hurricane.

Kindly, we would like a small explanation of why 90L is just that, an invest and nothing more.

Warm Regards,

Jonathan Belles.
Weather Enthusiast and Future Meteorologist
Storm2k.org member

The time of the email was 8:46pm ET. I am in no way saying I was the cause of the upgrade, but it was pure coincidence. I have not received a response, but if I do, I will post it.

Dear Jonathan Belles,

I tried to call the NHC without success. That's why I jumped on my bike to see what was going on.

When I arrived I met the staff in the pool room. They just ordered some pizza and some Johny Walker and were having a great time.

I told them about your e-mail and after drinking 3 cans of coffee they decided to give it a go. I pointed out the position and one of them answered: "There nothing there! " I advised him to take his glasses on as he can't see very well without.

Now everything is under control. Thank you!

Mr. Brown.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Derek Ortt]

this is now quite OBVIOUS that this is a TC

[CrazyC83]

Could WE have made the difference????

Grace, you couldn't sneak out this one!!!