ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

[HURAKAN]

Maybe I'm wrong but this is likely to be tonight or never

[cycloneye]

We got Grace!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902009_al092009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910050200
NONE
NOTIFY

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 092009.ren

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track as al09 [/b

[b]AL, 09, 2009100500, , BEST, 0, 402N, 213W, 55, 990, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

I can't wait to see the discussion...I wonder if we will get a shoutout in it?

[Hurricanehink]

I just did a quick calculation, and our new storm is about 640 miles west of the Portugal/Spain border. Wow.

[Squarethecircle]

What an odd way to continue the 2009 season, and in October no less...

[HURAKAN]

This has to be the northernmost in latitude that a storm has been classified in the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

This has to be the northernmost in latitude that a storm has been classified in the Atlantic

Vince was below 40N?

[HURAKAN]

This has to be the northernmost in latitude that a storm has been classified in the Atlantic

Vince was below 40N?

Bien abajo. Well below

[HURAKAN]

Even the unnamed storm in 2006 was a tropical storm at 40ºN.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL502006_Unnamed.pdf

I have a hunch that "Grace" will be named subtropical in the post-analysis well below 40ºN which means that the record will hold.

[HURAKAN]

673
WHXX01 KWBC 050212
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0212 UTC MON OCT 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE (AL092009) 20091005 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091005 0000 091005 1200 091006 0000 091006 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 40.2N 21.3W 42.8N 18.1W 45.8N 15.4W 48.0N 13.3W
BAMD 40.2N 21.3W 43.6N 17.6W 47.2N 16.0W 49.6N 13.9W
BAMM 40.2N 21.3W 43.3N 17.8W 46.6N 15.8W 48.8N 13.8W
LBAR 40.2N 21.3W 43.1N 16.0W 46.8N 10.8W 50.3N 2.8W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS 63KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091007 0000 091008 0000 091009 0000 091010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 49.1N 11.3W 49.5N 8.4W 48.4N 3.1W 49.2N 4.0E
BAMD 51.6N 9.1W 55.5N 9.8E 56.9N 36.2E 58.2N 62.7E
BAMM 50.3N 11.0W 52.9N 3.2W 54.4N 10.7E 54.8N 26.0E
LBAR 53.2N 8.8E .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 64KTS 58KTS 48KTS
DSHP 66KTS 51KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 40.2N LONCUR = 21.3W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 38.3N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 87DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 39.1N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1000MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 20NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Watch out England!!!

[HURAKAN]

Watch out England!!!

[HURAKAN]

703
WTNT24 KNHC 050236
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 20.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 40SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 20.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 21.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 48.0N 16.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 20.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[breeze]

Leanne, there's your answer to where it may go!

Amazing, indeed!

[HURAKAN]

068
WTNT34 KNHC 050236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2009

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

GRACE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...41.2N 20.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN


069
WTNT44 KNHC 050236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2009

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THE
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IS RELATIVELY DEEP AND SURROUNDS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS THE SAME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AZORES SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND MADE A
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE LOW...PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...HAS SINCE LOST
ITS FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND IS NOW LOCATED UNDER A FAIRLY UNIFORM
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. IN ADDITION...2210Z ASCAT DATA INDICATED A
VERY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND...LESS THAN 20 MILES. WITH THESE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...THE SYSTEM CAN NOW BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
STORM.

THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR THE 55
KT INITIAL INTENSITY. GRACE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS AROUND 21
DEGREES CELSIUS AND WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS NOT
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE CYCLONE IS
HEADED FOR EVEN COLDER WATER AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN VERY
SOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

GRACE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 41.2N 20.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 48.0N 16.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

WOW!!

[Macrocane]

Where are those who said that this season was over? I still think we will see one more storm on the rest of the season, but now I will gracefully enjoy Grace

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

No space?