Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE FROM THE
SURFACE UPWARD COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 17N BETWEEN 35W
AND 47W. IT LOOKS LIKE TWO OR THREE DISTINCT AXES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BE SPOTTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 31W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NEARBY SHOWERS MAY BE MORE RELATED
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

7N12W 4N20W 9N32W 8N44W 9N54W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W. THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THE ITCZ
IS RELATED TO THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO...THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
BEING SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW EVEN CROSSES FLORIDA COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF 70W...AND IT GOES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRADDLES 30N BETWEEN 78W AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND INTO MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND 96W IN EAST TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPILLS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH IS ABOUT 330 NM WIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE LINE FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE MONA PASSAGE IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CUTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM 22N60W TO 19N62W TO 16N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W. STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 13N TO 14N WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 76W. OTHER AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CROSSES FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH A SPOT THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST
OF BERMUDA TO 28N67W...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR
20N65W. THE WEAKER CENTER IS MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N32W. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS
31N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N24W 30N22W 31N19W. A SEPARATE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N53W. A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED
SIX HOURS AGO ALONG THE LINE FROM 27N42W TO 24N50W TO 21N60W AND
21N62W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION
HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS EVEN THOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS STILL REMAIN.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

.UPDATE...EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. INHERITED GRIDS AND FORECASTS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...THE NORTH...EAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 050208
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE NWS DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL.
THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH
AND THE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EVENING WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AND APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...TO
REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE MORNING AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO LATE IN THE MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

$$

FIGUEROA

[expat2carib]

I don't think this one will recurve. Let's hope the shear does it's job. Otherwise it could be nasty for the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Is now invest 91L.

[Gustywind]

I don't think this one will recurve. Let's hope the shear does it's job. Otherwise it could be nasty for the Caribbean.

humm let's wait and see first, and keep our fingers crossed. Next, for the second episode tommorow... even if it's already INVEST 91L! viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106761&hilit=

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Wet day expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 AM AST MON OCT 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...
GENERATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT THIS MOMENT...THE
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON CLOUD AND
SHOWERS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCAL WATERS. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VI...THE SPANISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 55 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE SHOWERS COVERAGE AND WINDS THE LOCAL AREA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 43 WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY
FRIDAY.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 050905
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON OCT 5 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AND APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS.

$$

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM GRACE...LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
41W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-59W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N26W 9N42W 7N50W 9N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS N OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NEAR 31N82W
TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W CONTINUING
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS ALONG 30N96W
30N101W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FRONT/LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 87W-93W...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS GENERALLY CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 25N. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT IN THE
WRN AND CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. EXPECT
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W...SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 9N81W IS
ENHANCING SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 22N65W TO 17N66W SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-66W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER
WINDS IN THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 58W TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND OFF THE N COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
29N W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N67W TO 27N72W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 65W-68W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N61W TO 28N65W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 30N.
BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE BASIN W OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N65W ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO 17N66W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 61W-68W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 31N54W. TO THE
E...A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N42W T0 28N51W. NO
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR
15N26W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE E SIDE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES
ALONG 44W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[msbee]

Hmm
BAMS and SHIPS have it going right over us!

[Patti]

Did anyone else on St Maarten or surrounding islands feel that earthquake we just had a few minutes ago?

[msbee]

everyone on the island felt it.
on statia too.
it was pretty heavy

[expat2carib]

Any idea where it was? Just in case there will be a wave.

[Patti]

could this be it?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rec ... 09mjbi.php

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN