ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[Derek Ortt]

getting sheared apart, not much to worry about here

[wxman57]

Yes, shear is helping to disrupt the convection today. I feel a bit more optimistic that it won't develop now.

[Macrocane]

Yes, shear is helping to disrupt the convection today. I feel a bit more optimistic that it won't develop now.

That would be pesimistic to me Though that would be great for the Caribbean friends. By the way wxman57, I've always been curious, what is your favorite type of weather, cause tropical cyclones are not, right?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dianmu]

It still looks terrible.

Low.

[wxman57]

Yes, shear is helping to disrupt the convection today. I feel a bit more optimistic that it won't develop now.

That would be pessimistic to me Though that would be great for the Caribbean friends. By the way wxman57, I've always been curious, what is your favorite type of weather, cause tropical cyclones are not, right?

My favorite type of weather would be hurricanes. I was taught to track them at 4 years of age in 1961. I remember growing up that I wanted every hurricane that developed to hit me. Then I grew up, bought a home, got married and have lots more responsibilities. I don't wish to be hit by any more hurricanes. Ike knocked our power out for 2 weeks last year.

As a professional met, they ARE good for business. A year like this one can really hurt new sales. However, after last year I'm glad to have a quiet season.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface analysis/satellite. Just a wave axis in a sheared environment for now. Convection very disorganized.

[cycloneye]

Below is Dr Jeff Masters discussion about invest 91L.

A large tropical wave near 12N 46W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C, which is 3°C above the threshold typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. The wave is poorly organized at present, with no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should continue to track west-northwest over the next 2 - 3 days, and spread heavy rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. By Thursday, the trough of low pressure that is pulling 91L to the north should bypass the storm, allowing a high pressure ridge to build in and force 91L due west. NHC is giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

[wxman57]

I would disagree with the low shear assessment (5-10 kts). It's clear from a WV loop that shear is stronger than that. Upper-level winds on the western side of the wave are 40-50 kts from the southwest. I think this one will go "poof" as it nears the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

A center (likely ML) appears to be present near 14N 46W

[Blown Away]

I would disagree with the low shear assessment (5-10 kts). It's clear from a WV loop that shear is stronger than that. Upper-level winds on the western side of the wave are 40-50 kts from the southwest. I think this one will go "poof" as it nears the Caribbean.

What if the wave moves just NE of the Caribbean?

[Sanibel]

Looks like another weak one 2009 will take down. Sparse convection under shear late in the season.

[Blown Away]

Looks like another weak one 2009 will take down. Sparse convection under shear late in the season.

I'm always leaning towards "poof" this year, but the convection seems to be consolidating near 13N/45W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

Luis, Ships have a Cat 1 hurricane near you in a few days. What do you think??

[cycloneye]

Luis, Ships have a Cat 1 hurricane near you in a few days. What do you think??

Nah.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS is uselss now because it assumes the system is a cyclone

[cycloneye]

Good rotation around 14N-46W.

[Blown Away]

Looking good rate now!

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW, the GFS seems to NOT develop this one but some other conglomeration of mess as this system scoots on off to the WNW. Has anyone else noticed this over the last couple of days? 91L seems to just go away as some other system takes over farther south and east. But even it does very little in the long run. I suppose we'll find out one way or another.

[wxman57]

FWIW, the GFS seems to NOT develop this one but some other conglomeration of mess as this system scoots on off to the WNW. Has anyone else noticed this over the last couple of days? 91L seems to just go away as some other system takes over farther south and east. But even it does very little in the long run. I suppose we'll find out one way or another.

I noticed the 00Z GFS took the low-level vorticity into Honduras.