Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING NW 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM PEAK AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN
BE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
45W-49W.
$$
WALLACE

[msbee]

That's exactly it, patti

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time Monday, October 05, 2009 at 16:28:10 UTC
Monday, October 05, 2009 at 12:28:10 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.043°N, 62.781°W
Depth 35.4 km (22.0 miles)
Region SAINT MARTIN REGION, LEEWARD ISLANDS
Distances 18 km (11 miles) NNE (25°) from Saint-Barthélemy, Saint Barthélemy, Guadeloupe
29 km (18 miles) ESE (102°) from Marigot, Saint Martin, Guadeloupe
30 km (18 miles) E (87°) from Philipsburg, Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
53 km (33 miles) SE (135°) from THE VALLEY, Anguilla
340 km (211 miles) E (96°) from Carolina, PR

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 19.1 km (11.9 miles); depth +/- 12.1 km (7.5 miles)
Parameters NST= 31, Nph= 31, Dmin=113.4 km, Rmss=0.78 sec, Gp=119°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID us2009mjbi

[expat2carib]

Thanks MSbee, Patti and Luis. It's strange but we are "used" to earthquakes here on the island. I'm more concerned when they happen offshore and a possible Tsunami.

[msbee]

This actually was offshore, but it was deep and too small for a tsunami.
I agree. that is something we wouldn't want to happen here in the Caribbean.
We actually feel earthquakes here from time to time too but not often and not strong.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON OCT 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...LARES AND CAMUY

AT 250 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE BORDER OF LARES AND CAMUY. THIS STORM
WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY FLOOD LOW
LYING ROADWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF
THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS
SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE
THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST MON OCT 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS SEPARATES TWO UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS HAITI...THE OTHER EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAKENING
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND EXIT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS AN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 59 WEST AND JUST EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH NOT CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...REPORTS FROM
THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY INDICATED THAT IN PAST 24 HOURS
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS OF THE SOUFRIERE HILL
VOLCANO...WITH PLUME EXTENDING TO LEVELS BETWEEN 8-15 THOUSAND FEET.
THE PRESENT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME SHOULD STEER THE
MAJORITY OF THE PARTICULATES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLAND... HOWEVER
TRACES OF FINE ASH PARTICLES COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION SAL PRODUCT IMAGERY
AS WELL AND NAAPS TOTAL OPTICAL DEPTH IMAGERY SUGGESTED DRY AIR AND
FAINT AMOUNTS OF SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY MAKE FOR ON AND OFF
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS FAR AS WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAD NO DIRECT
EFFECT ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS MAINLY DUE
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AIDED BY DIURNAL AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BRING SOME
FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
MODEL SUGGEST A FAIRLY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT AS
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THEN WE CAN EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VA FROM MONTSERRAT IS CURRENTLY BEING EMITTED TO BETWEEN
10-15KFT...MAINLY TRAVELING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ
THROUGH 05/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

[msbee]

I wonder if the volcano erupting has anything to do with the earthquake we felt?

[cycloneye]

I wonder if the volcano erupting has anything to do with the earthquake we felt?

Good question.What a coincidence that both events occured on the same day.

[Gustywind]

I wonder if the volcano erupting has anything to do with the earthquake we felt?

Good question.What a coincidence that both events occured on the same day.

Absolutely, very interresting questionMsbee and Cycloneye. Maybe a very wide and passionate subject! Concerning the earthquake hope that everybody is safe and fine in the islands . I felt the earthquake this morning, but hopefully nothing to report in Guadeloupe in terms of damages.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC071-115-060045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0049.091005T2212Z-091006T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
612 PM AST MON OCT 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA
QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

* AT 609 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. U.S.G.S. GAGES AND RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
OVER THESE AREAS AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN HEAVILY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 845 PM AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ALSO...
MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Still code orange.

ABNT20 KNHC 052342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF IRELAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[msbee]

now the models on 91L are really starting to look crazy

[abajan]

Heavy rain with thunder... shutting down computer.
Good night all!

[Gustywind]

Heavy rain with thunder... shutting down computer.
Good night all!

Hey be safe Abajan! Keep us informed as usual as possible...
Gustywind

[expat2carib]

now the models on 91L are really starting to look crazy

There is one prof met here on s2k (don't remember his name) that introduced the term: "the system needs to marinate first" before the models can find a way, logic in the chaos of data computed,produced.

I think that's very true. You need the time factor (collect data) to predict -more or less- reliable tracks.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
848 PM AST MON OCT 5 2009

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN...WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD
AND FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR MUNICIPALITIES AND RIVERS ACROSS
THOSE SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WERE ALSO DETECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE EVENING. THESE ACTIVITIES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
LEFT ACROSS THE REGION BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA WILL BE DICTATED MAINLY BY DIURNAL AND
LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THIS
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY THE FA OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 AM AST TUE OCT 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE EXITED THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HAS
TRACKED A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THREE TROPICAL WAVES OF INTEREST ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN
TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. THE
FIRST...EXITING THE REGION OVERNIGHT IS HEADED FOR HISPANIOLA AND
TRAILING A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE VI/PR NOTABLE ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE. A SECOND...VERY WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 60W
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY EVEN DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE...AS DRY AIR ALONG THE TOP EDGE OF THE WAVE
ADVECTS INTO LOCAL AREA NEXT 36 HOURS. THE THIRD FEATURE...THE
STRONGEST WAVE OF THE THREE IS NEAR 50 WEST AND IS FORECAST TO
HEAD SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RUNNING INTO A
SOLID WALL OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DRY AIR SURROUNDS ALL THREE
SYSTEMS AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
STRONG OVER THE SW ATLC.

THEREFORE...EXPECTING ONLY ONE MORE DAY OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP DRYING
TREND WITH STRONG CAPPING TO BUILD AT TOP OF BOUNDARY
LAYER...ENSURING ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE THIRD WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO
WOBBLE AND DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND TRACK DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
LOCAL REGION. LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEKEND AHEAD...BUT WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON THE LONGEVITY OF THIS WAVE.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 060903
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST TUE OCT 6 2009


PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOPPLER REPORTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS
MORNING... WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS.

$$

[Gustywind]