WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[Typhoon10]

Hurakan, I think if it stays over the South China Sea it will pick up strength again and who knows where it will go!

[Dianmu]

像是2006年的台风西马仑#22

[liu884]

I think it will hit HongKong

[HURAKAN]

JMA = 60 knots

ZCZC 479
WTPQ21 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 20.0N 119.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM NORTHEAST 50NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 19.1N 120.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE SSE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 071200UTC 18.4N 120.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 081200UTC 17.5N 120.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 119.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.7N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.5N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.2N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.8N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.4N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 119.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Continues mostly stationary

[ozonepete]

PARMA and MELOR are getting quite close now. Maybe there will be a little binary interaction/fujiwhara after all. If there is, you should see Parma start moving in a south or southeast direction.

[breeze]

Ozonepete, would that begin to occur now with still quite a bit of distance between them?

Parma and Melor:

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC warning=55kts

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.3N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.2N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 119.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
MOSTLY ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LODGED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE LUZON STRAIT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN WIDE DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NOGAPS ATTEMPTING AN
EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS EGRR AND
ECMWF FAVORING AN EVENTUAL WESTERLY TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

Ozonepete, would that begin to occur now with still quite a bit of distance between them?

Hey Breeze,
The accepted distance is for the two centers to be 900 nautical miles apart or less. By the best I can calculate it, they are between 880 and 900 miles apart right now, and may get a little closer. I'm not convinced it will happen; just saying if it does you should see PARMA head SSE, since you would expect it to take the opposite direction from MELOR's current NNW movement.

[breeze]

Thanks - I'll certainly be watching!

[Typhoon10]

Looks like its heading back to Philippines

[Dianmu]

Does it have a eye now??

[HURAKAN]

Does it have a eye now??

Trying to comeback

[ozonepete]

It's moving SSE. I really thnk they're "doin' the fujiwhara" now:

[oaba09]

This storm is unpredictable! Please don't go south east!!!

[leanne_uk]

wow this is incredible, the fujiwhara effect does appear to be happening.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 458
WTPQ21 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 19.3N 120.2E FAIR
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM WEST 180NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 18.3N 120.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080000UTC 17.6N 120.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 090000UTC 17.1N 119.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.5N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.2N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.0N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.8N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 120.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[oaba09]

w/ the fujiwara effect happening, how will this affect melor's direction?