ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

[DanieleItalyRm]

Grace, Vince, Karl egual at many Mediterranean Hurricane (Medicanes):

[ozonepete]

looks like this will be touch and go with regards to landfall

if it does make landfall, it would be the second strongest landfall of the season, behind Bill in Newfoundland

Wow, I didn't even realize that it'd be the second storngest. How bizarre.

[ozonepete]

Grace, Vince, Karl egual at many Mediterranean Hurricane (Medicanes):

Man, you post some incredible stuff, Mr. Daniele. I hope you always keep up the good work.

[Dianmu]

It is going to die. The sea surface temperature is too low.

[breeze]

Moving right along...

[brunota2003]

Should TS warnings go up for Ireland, just encase? Could you imagine seeing TS warnings that far NE?

[CrazyC83]

AL, 09, 2009100600, , BEST, 0, 487N, 144W, 45, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 75, 45, 0, 998, 100, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, M,

Should cross 50°N soon. Still looks surprisingly tropical even at that high latitude and about 275 miles from Ireland.

[CrazyC83]

Should TS warnings go up for Ireland, just encase? Could you imagine seeing TS warnings that far NE?

Personally, I would at least put up a Tropical Storm Watch (precautionary), although there is no real program up there.

[breeze]

Here's the link to Ireland's Met Service:

http://www.met.ie/default.asp

It looks like mostly a heavy rain warning for early Tuesday.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the short time it has to become extratropical or get absorbed before a potential landfall, I would personally issue the following (totally unofficial):

Tropical Storm Warning - Waterville (51.9N 10.2W) to Glandore (51.6N 9.1W), including Cape Clear Island

Tropical Storm Watch - Smerwick (52.2N 10.4W) to Waterville (including the Blasket Islands) and Glandore to Lispatrick (51.6N 8.5W)

[ozonepete]

Moving right along...

Pretty amazing - hard to believe your eyes on this one.

[leanne_uk]

wow ive been asleep for a few hours and little grace is flying thru the north atlantic

I really want to see her do the unimaginable and hit at TS strength

The met office still aint phased by this at all.... Crazy when she is so close and still strong

Anyone got the latest sat images? On the mobile and my usual site is not liking my phone tonight

[breeze]

It is amazing - I thought maybe it wouldn't look so good on that latest image, but it still
looks quite healthy, eh? Of course, we know it's closing in on cooler waters...

Wake up for your Tropical Storm, Leanne! LOL!

[ozonepete]

The 5PM NHC Discussion was fascinating:

WTNT44 KNHC 052034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009

GRACE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A MODERATE TO DEEP WARM CORE AS INDICATED BY RECENT AMSU PASSES. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER SSTS OF 17-18C. THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM SAB. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF GRACE SOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HELD AT 990 MB BASED ON AN 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF 992 MB AND A WIND OF 20 KT FROM SHIP A8I02 ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GRACE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/26 KT...AS GRACE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27W. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRACE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED FARTHER NORTH THAN GRACE DID. IN 2008 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 40.6N....SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE LATITUDE OF 40.2N WHERE GRACE WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 0000 UTC TODAY. ALSO...IT IS LIKELY THAT POST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM EARLIER... AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.


But wasn't it the farthest NORTHEAST that a TS ever formed? That would be historic, because remember that Fred formed at the farthest point SOUTHEAST ever this season.

And will they also say it was a hurricane? An eye usually never forms below 77 knots - 89mph.

[Derek Ortt]

eyes are present routinely in tropical storms with winds of about 50KT. Usually, they are not visible due to cirrus overcast, but are on radar and microwave imagery

We don't have cirrus overcast here; thus, we could see the eye earlier

[Blown Away]

Cool little weather system.

[CrazyC83]

Can the NHC issue watches or warnings for areas they do not have direct jurisdiction for?

[ozonepete]

eyes are present routinely in tropical storms with winds of about 50KT. Usually, they are not visible due to cirrus overcast, but are on radar and microwave imagery

We don't have cirrus overcast here; thus, we could see the eye earlier

The key phrase you used is cirrus overcast, and the key word left out is "developing." We've all seen hurricanes weakening into a TS that keep their CLEAR eye. But has there ever been a tropical storm DEVELOPING into a hurricane that showed a CLEAR eye BEFORE it made hurricane? I've never seen one in all of the satellite image history we have and all of the storms I've followed. So if Grace was on the upswing, producing a CLEAR eye BEFORE the DEVELOPING TS became a hurricane would be a first. I defer to you on this - you are an expert and I admire your work. But if you have an example I would love to see it.

And of course, a DEVELOPING TS often has an "EYE" detectible by SSMI because the "eye" circulation it shows is a developing area of subsidence that forms from the lower levels up as the radius of maximum winds consolidates. In that DEVELOPMENT situation we'd always expect a cirrus canopy until the winds have reached a critical number (about 89mph) where the cirrus can clear out.

[HURAKAN]

BATUK00 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Oct. 6 - 1:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 62°F
Dewpoint: 60°F
Pressure: 989.2 mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Looks like they need to make a few changes to the official pressure!!!

[HURAKAN]

Continues to get closer to England