ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

[HURAKAN]

06/0000 UTC 48.8N 14.3W EXTRATROPICAL GRACE -- Atlantic

Bye Grace says Dvorak

[ozonepete]

06/0000 UTC 48.8N 14.3W EXTRATROPICAL GRACE -- Atlantic

Bye Grace says Dvorak

But extratropical doesn't mean no structure. And what does Dvorak know? lol, just kidding. But I'd still love to be standing there on the beach when Grace comes in. And more seriously, we need to see if we can get some data when it does. It would be fascinating to see some real physical indications that it survived as a cyclone and maybe had some tropical characteristics left, like a rain-free center and/or with max winds close to it.

[HURAKAN]

334
WTNT24 KNHC 060235
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 13.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 45SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 13.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.7N 14.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.7N 13.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
GRACE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE UNITED
KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER WONT54 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

334
WTNT24 KNHC 060235
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 13.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 45SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 13.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.7N 14.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.7N 13.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
GRACE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE UNITED
KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER WONT54 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, I'm not sure if I agree with Dvorak, still seems to be some deep convection near the center...

[HURAKAN]

970
WTNT34 KNHC 060238
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009

...GRACE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE
WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 13.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND.

THE REMNANTS OF GRACE ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26
MPH...43 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140
KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...49.7N 13.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
GRACE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED
KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER WONT54 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


904
WTNT44 KNHC 060241
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009

GRACE HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2026 UTC...PRIOR TO INTERACTION WITH THE
FRONT...SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A DECREASING AREA
OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN A FEW MILLIBARS TOO HIGH...AS A
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED 986.6 MB.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GRACE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE
UNDER WMO HEADER WONT54 EGRR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 49.7N 13.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Last:

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...49.7N 13.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB

ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND.

[HURAKAN]

Bye Grace

[leanne_uk]

Amazingly the Irish Met Office have a weather warning out for wind speeds of just force 6 so no one over here is remotely expecting Grace to do anything.

Would love them to get caught napping on this one

*force 6 winds are 25-31 mph and described as a strong breeze. Wave heights 9-13ft if I remember correctly

[ozonepete]

For sure this whole analysis exercise has been fun. Here is little tiny Grace riding along the stationary front into southern Ireland. Tiny grace still has a tiny "eye." I never thought I'd call a tropical cyclone cute.

[JonathanBelles]

Now we wait for Post Analysis. I wonder how far back they will take it.

[Macrocane]

These where some very exciting and interesting 24 hours, let's wait for the TCR to see if Grace was a TC since we first thought it was (4 days ago).

[leanne_uk]

She continues to amaze and interest me. How much longer can she really hold up?

I was going back to bed an hour ago but cant get off the phone lol

[breeze]

I never thought I'd call a tropical cyclone cute.

Ozonepete, are you gonna put that in your signature? LOL, j/k!

It has been a very interesting system - I'd like to hear from folks in the Azores where
it meandered around for several days, as well!

[Derek Ortt]

eyes are present routinely in tropical storms with winds of about 50KT. Usually, they are not visible due to cirrus overcast, but are on radar and microwave imagery

We don't have cirrus overcast here; thus, we could see the eye earlier

The key phrase you used is cirrus overcast, and the key word left out is "developing." We've all seen hurricanes weakening into a TS that keep their CLEAR eye. But has there ever been a tropical storm DEVELOPING into a hurricane that showed a CLEAR eye BEFORE it made hurricane? I've never seen one in all of the satellite image history we have and all of the storms I've followed. So if Grace was on the upswing, producing a CLEAR eye BEFORE the DEVELOPING TS became a hurricane would be a first. I defer to you on this - you are an expert and I admire your work. But if you have an example I would love to see it.

And of course, a DEVELOPING TS often has an "EYE" detectible by SSMI because the "eye" circulation it shows is a developing area of subsidence that forms from the lower levels up as the radius of maximum winds consolidates. In that DEVELOPMENT situation we'd always expect a cirrus canopy until the winds have reached a critical number (about 89mph) where the cirrus can clear out.

it is quite common to have an eye with this type of tropical cyclone prior to hurricane status

see Vince and Michael

[leanne_uk]

I never thought I'd call a tropical cyclone cute.

Ozonepete, are you gonna put that in your signature? LOL, j/k!

It has been a very interesting system - I'd like to hear from folks in the Azores where
it meandered around for several days, as well!

lol how did i miss ozonepete referring to Grace as cute?
Good call tho she kinda is

Yeh it would be good to get insight from anyone down in the Azores to see how they have fared since last Thursday when Grace may have actually formed.

[ozonepete]

eyes are present routinely in tropical storms with winds of about 50KT. Usually, they are not visible due to cirrus overcast, but are on radar and microwave imagery

We don't have cirrus overcast here; thus, we could see the eye earlier

The key phrase you used is cirrus overcast, and the key word left out is "developing." We've all seen hurricanes weakening into a TS that keep their CLEAR eye. But has there ever been a tropical storm DEVELOPING into a hurricane that showed a CLEAR eye BEFORE it made hurricane? I've never seen one in all of the satellite image history we have and all of the storms I've followed. So if Grace was on the upswing, producing a CLEAR eye BEFORE the DEVELOPING TS became a hurricane would be a first. I defer to you on this - you are an expert and I admire your work. But if you have an example I would love to see it.

And of course, a DEVELOPING TS often has an "EYE" detectible by SSMI because the "eye" circulation it shows is a developing area of subsidence that forms from the lower levels up as the radius of maximum winds consolidates. In that DEVELOPMENT situation we'd always expect a cirrus canopy until the winds have reached a critical number (about 89mph) where the cirrus can clear out.

it is quite common to have an eye with this type of tropical cyclone prior to hurricane status

see Vince and Michael

"this type of tropical cyclone" Vince and Michael were "special" like Grace is.

k. thanks Derek. it will have to wait til tomorrow but promise I'll look into it. lights out for me...

[leanne_uk]

The rain has just started here and the Met Office has issued a weather warning for heavy rain. This is in effect for North Wales, Northern England and the Midlands.

I know Grace was small and was not going to pose a risk to the Uk but I am pretty disappointed that none of the Tv News stations have mentioned Grace at all. Even the Met office is not that interested in the little North Atlantic oddity that was Grace

[Dianmu]

A very small cyclone goes to England......

[DanieleItalyRm]

Grace, Vince, Karl egual at many Mediterranean Hurricane (Medicanes):

Man, you post some incredible stuff, Mr. Daniele. I hope you always keep up the good work.

oh, many many thanks, im study for many years Mediterranean tropical cyclones.

For my opinion GRACE an evident tropical storm since on October 1, and many probably
it had CAT1 Hurricane in very short little part.
Beautiful image for friends: