WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[HURAKAN]

Appears to be weakening

[leanne_uk]

Would the weakening occur because of the 'possible' fujiwhara effect or is it simply just the natural surroundings the the system would have been expecting to encounter as it moved north?

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 092
WTPQ22 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 22.5N 131.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 26.8N 130.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 080000UTC 33.4N 135.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 090000UTC 39.7N 141.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
NNNN

[starlight]

How does Melor compare to Katrina? How far inland from Tokyo Bay would the expected storm surge go?
This latest map is taking it right through upper Japan. Are there warnings out? I don't read Japanese. Schools would surely be closed by tomorrow?
I don't feel good about this. One big baby

[JTE50]

where is the mysterious shear that JTWC mentioned?

lol they've been saying some "interesting" things lately. Are you talking about this one (in red), or did I miss something?

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. ... skipped some stuff here...
B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//

the forecasters at JTWC are not meteorologists, so interesting things can be expected. Since they are forecasters who went thorugh the military training, perhaps it would be better if there was less turnover there. Don't move them to a different assignment. Instead, keep the forecasters on duty as a career

Yes, move JTWC back to Guam and let the very experienced former employees that worked there before run the show. They now work at the NWSO Guam. I'm sure they could do a better job than JTWC Hawaii.

[ozonepete]

Would the weakening occur because of the 'possible' fujiwhara effect or is it simply just the natural surroundings the the system would have been expecting to encounter as it moved north?

Fujiwhara has nothing to do with weakening for MELOR in this scenario. Most recurvers experience weakening because they move into the westerly winds, which introduce cooler drier air into their circulation. MELOR will be no exception.

[Derek Ortt]

I don't see much shear with this, however. The outflow is very well defined in all directions yet.

I suspect it will hold its own, possibly re-intensifies as the eye contracts a little during the next 24, then slowly weaken on final approach. Probably 100KT 1 minute sustained or 85KT 10 minute as JMA has

[helmingstay]

As we've seen stateside in the past several years, waves are a *really* big issue. Weakened storms can still drive massive waves, especially when the wind radius is large. Last year Galveston just barely missed the dirty eastern side of Ike, with the eye passing directly over it. Areas of low population just east of Galveston experienced very large storm surges, and were essentially swept away.

Japan has much deeper waters than the Gulf of Mexico, so surges should be less intense and waves more intense (for details see http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/s ... istics.asp ). Nonetheless, I imagine that the waves from Melor coupled with the surge will be intense. Tokyo bay is south-facing, right into the storm path. I searched last night for Tokyo Bay's storm defenses. I didn't find much that i could read, but it looks like Tokyo is well-defended against surge heights of up to 5m. Melor's tracking to the west of Tokyo means significantly higher storm surge, especially with it's predicted forwards motion of 27 kt! Japan is steep, with little development less than 5 meters from sea level. Still, coastal installations are in for a beating.
Animations of Western Pacific significant wave height (SWH) is here, showing 10+ meters at the storm's core. Peak wave height is 2 to 3 times greater... 30 meter waves sound *scary*:
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NPAC-W ... index.html

Tides and landfall time are outstanding questions. In Tokyo, it looks like tides will crest at approx 09:30 UTC at +2 meters: http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/tideshow. ... 0;d_min=00 If anyone has rainfall rate or total energy content data for Metor, that would be very helpful to know.

I'm honestly surprised at the lack of media attention from this beast bearing down on what wikipedia is calling "the world's most populous metropolitan area"...

[maraxus]

here's the website for the kadena airbase 18th wing weather flight.
http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/

[subtropicaltyphoon]

sorry! i am fresh man.what are you talking about now? the typhoon melor ??

[Infdidoll]

Having some pretty good wind gusts, right now, on Okinawa. Enough to shake the building I'm in...and I thought this big, concrete mammoth was immovable. We're probably seeing the worst we are going to, right now and continuing through the afternoon. And here we were just about prepared for this thing...

[starlight]

Hi Helmingstay. Thank you for your research. In your opinion, how far inland from Tokyo Bay would the storm surge go? As you said - 30 metre waves sound scary. Not sure what would survive. But even 10 metre waves would do a lot of damage.
I agree with you that it is surprising that there is not more media coverage.

[starlight]

Hi Infdidoll, Are you OK? It must be hard being there on your own.

[Dianmu]

It doesn't have a big eye yet.Looks ugly...

[Infdidoll]

Hi Infdidoll, Are you OK? It must be hard being there on your own.

I'm doing great, here...It's not as bad as I thought it would be with this typhoon so close...However, that could change as night falls and we get the backside of the storm. Morakot blew by here exactly two months ago and we had some pretty crazy wind and waves from the rear side. Right now, seems about equal to what it was like when Morakot blew by.

I love this satellite photo of Melor and Parma:

[weatherbabe]

Hi All I am new here, and wondering what to make of this Melor. I am located in Osaka, and I cannot get any proper information. As someone said, not much media attention. Anyone know how high the winds if any will get in the osaka/kansai region? is this thing producing a lot of rain?
If anyone can give info or recommend sites that would be great.

[Infdidoll]

Whoa...I take back what I said before....things changed REALLY quickly and now it's plain frightening out there. Where the heck is this thing sitting? Any updated satellite? I just got some video. Probably the last time it will be safe to go outside and get video. I'm wondering where the storm is right now...If this is just the outer bands we are getting, I would really hate to be taking the brunt of it.

[helmingstay]

Honestly, the best storm info is here. It can be a little tricky to read, though. Predictions of storm position and wind speed radius is being posted regularly by cycloneye. In these posts, times are shown in "Z time" (UTC). So, "060000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 131.6E" gives you the coordinates of the storm at October 6th at midnight UTC. Wind speed radius is given by direction: "RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST " Using google earth, you should be able to estimate which maximum wind radius you will fall within, and when.

A good weather site mentioned earlier is wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Unfortunately, a lot of the special analysis is only conducted for storms that threaten the U.S., so there's not as much information on Pacific typhoons (like detailed wind map prediction and history). Current wind maps can be found here ("Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis"): http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP202009.

[Infdidoll]

Honestly, the best storm info is here. It can be a little tricky to read, though. Predictions of storm position and wind speed radius is being posted regularly by cycloneye. In these posts, times are shown in "Z time" (UTC). So, "060000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 131.6E" gives you the coordinates of the storm at October 6th at midnight UTC. Wind speed radius is given by direction: "RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST " Using google earth, you should be able to estimate which maximum wind radius you will fall within, and when.

A good weather site mentioned earlier is wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Unfortunately, a lot of the special analysis is only conducted for storms that threaten the U.S., so there's not as much information on Pacific typhoons (like detailed wind map prediction and history). Current wind maps can be found here ("Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis"): http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP202009.

helmingstay - Thank you, I'm going to check it out...I had just had the thought, "Okay, this is as bad as it's going to get? Pffffbt!" when it started looking like Mother Nature unleashed all her fury on the island.

[helmingstay]

Whoa...I take back what I said before....things changed REALLY quickly and now it's plain frightening out there. Where the heck is this thing sitting? Any updated satellite? I just got some video. Probably the last time it will be safe to go outside and get video. I'm wondering where the storm is right now...If this is just the outer bands we are getting, I would really hate to be taking the brunt of it.

It appears to be tracking due north now, and the models now have the eye tracking right along 130 degrees north. For realtime radar, check out http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP202009. It looks like you just got swept by a fast-moving outer band. You're on the eastern side of the storm, which works to your advantage, even if the convection core sweeps over you. Think happy thoughts, and remember to breathe!

Incidentally, are there really 1,500 people on Minamidaitō right now (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minami_Daito)? If so, they're getting pounded.