From the Norman, OK morning discussion:
FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS TX AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIP CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REST OF THE SW UPPER LOW COMES OUT
AND CROSSES THE AREA. BY THAT TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE N BRANCH OF
THE FLOW... FROM W CANADA SE-WARD INTO THE CENTRAL/E CONUS... WILL
TAKE CHARGE. THE SFC FRONT OVER TX FINALLY WILL MOVE S FOR GOOD...
AND WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER DRIER PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A DECENT DUMP OF
CANADIAN AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. CAN SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S/50S... AND PERHAPS THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE YOUNG SEASON IN PARTS OF THE AREA BY
NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WHEN
SUNDAY BECOMES DAY 7.
From the Tulsa, OK morning discussion:
WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS A GOOD PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY..AND MAINTAINS
ENOUGH TO KEEP A SOUTHWEST PRESENCE. FIRST WAVE
OF ENERGY INDUCES A SURFACE LOW / SOUTHERLY WINDS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA / WESTERN ARKANSAS
TUESDAY. BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RIGHT BACK NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY STILL
LOOKS VERY WET WITH ECMWF/GFS 700 DEWPOINT IN THE
6+ NEIGHBORHOOD. GFS STARTING TO LATCH ON TO THE
ECMWF PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED COLD PUNCH...ARRIVING
NEXT WEEKEND.
The 12z GFS brings the 0C 850mb line all the way south into north Texas by next Sunday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif