ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[cycloneye]

I smell a special tropical weather outlook.

[Derek Ortt]

I have placed a floater on the system and labeled it as Invest_12

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[wxman57]

This goes to show you how quickly a system can get better organized if that shear drops off just for a few hours. I suspect the NHC is monitoring the convection to see if it looks like it'll persist or be sheared off to the east before they upgrade it. It almost looks like an outflow boundary forming SW of the center now. That would indicate increasing shear and decreasing convection near the center shortly.

Just looking at the latest model guidance, all the dynamic models just take the system to the WNW-NW through 120hrs, passing well NE of the Caribbean. Only the simple trajectory models (BAMs) now indicate a NE Caribbean threat. Good news for the Caribbean. But I believe that the system will continue to fight shear for the next 5 days. If it's upgraded this afternoon, it may revert back to a sheared system with an exposed center by tonight again.

[wxman57]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI AT 5 PM AST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[Brent]

WOW. That was fast.

[Aric Dunn]

not at all surprised.. ..

[HURAKAN]

What a change in an hour. Very much like Grace.

[expat2carib]

Henry the eight! He was a strange emperor. Eight named TC this season.

I know it's Henri this one

[HURAKAN]

#8. Henri

[caribepr]

I smell a special tropical weather outlook.

Good smeller, Luis!

[caribepr]

Does north of the lesser antilles mean north of us too, I wonder? What ARE the stats now, please?

[cycloneye]

For the newbies that had joined storm2k recently,this is what they do identify the new number for a new tropical cyclone.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912009_al102009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910061917
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 102009.ren

[Evil Jeremy]

2nd time in 48 hours we go from code yellow to special advisory code red to full advisories in 3 hours. Unbelievable. Completely amazing. Then again, when studying the tropics, one should never forget rule #1: Anything can happen.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC TUE OCT 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20091006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091006 1800 091007 0600 091007 1800 091008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 53.4W 19.1N 56.4W 20.4N 59.0W 21.3N 60.7W
BAMD 17.7N 53.4W 19.3N 55.0W 20.8N 56.3W 21.9N 57.2W
BAMM 17.7N 53.4W 18.9N 55.6W 20.1N 57.3W 20.7N 59.0W
LBAR 17.7N 53.4W 19.5N 55.4W 21.6N 56.6W 23.5N 57.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091008 1800 091009 1800 091010 1800 091011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 62.2W 22.1N 64.3W 20.8N 68.2W 20.1N 74.0W
BAMD 22.7N 57.7W 20.6N 58.0W 17.9N 61.8W 16.8N 66.2W
BAMM 21.4N 60.5W 20.6N 63.6W 19.1N 69.2W 18.2N 75.4W
LBAR 25.3N 55.5W 28.4N 46.8W 36.0N 43.3W 35.7N 39.6W
SHIP 36KTS 38KTS 48KTS 58KTS
DSHP 36KTS 38KTS 48KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 46.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Does north of the lesser antilles mean north of us too, I wonder? What ARE the stats now, please?

Go to the models thread and check the tracks.

[Evil Jeremy]

What kind of track do you all think the NHC will churn out at 5? WSW bend at the end, or more of a turn to the north? Or will it even survive for 5 days?

[Rainband]

Current surface analysis/satellite indicates that the rotation we're seeing may not be at the surface. Note the buoy with the persistent easterly wind south of the rotation. Center is near 16.8N/52.1W. Maybe a little east of that point though, based on a newer image. Experiencing moderate shear. Models are often clueless about shear over the open waters. We just don't have adequate data out there. Development chances definitely diminishing, as per the now "code yellow". Good news for you folks in the Caribbean.

Mother nature is full of surprises

[Aric Dunn]

2nd time in 48 hours we go from code yellow to special advisory code red to full advisories in 3 hours. Unbelievable. Completely amazing. Then again, when studying the tropics, one should never forget rule #1: Anything can happen.

who wrote the special advisory.. compared to who wrote the 2pm ?

[Aric Dunn]

a possible answer to the turn around.. Berg who wrote the morning and 2 pm disscusions is fairly new and may have over looked something .. the special advisory was written by

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

who may have just come on shift as was like whoa !! lol

[caribepr]

Does north of the lesser antilles mean north of us too, I wonder? What ARE the stats now, please?

Go to the models thread and check the tracks.

Oops, forgot about the models page for invests! Thanks.