ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[brunota2003]

where are the measurements of sustained TS winds? just curious...

[wxman57]

Still no advisory. Maybe the NHC is reconsidering the upgrade?

[wxman57]

where are the measurements of sustained TS winds? just curious...

Good question. Another good question would be what happened to recon this year?

[wxman57]

Track is out. Dissipated in 36 hrs.

[brunota2003]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 062056
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 53.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 58.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N 61.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 54.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[TheEuropean]

Still no advisory. Maybe the NHC is reconsidering the upgrade?

Advisory is out, now it's official.

[southerngale]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 062056
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI...
THE EIGHTH NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 500 PM AST...
2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...965
KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRI AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.8N 54.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG











000
WTNT25 KNHC 062056
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 53.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 58.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N 61.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 54.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[deltadog03]

What a season of sheared messes. The window of is rapidly closing on this season IMO I am kind of on the fence with this one. Kool, we have a storm that prolly wont do any harm to anyone, or why do we bother with something that is more than likely gonna get destroyed by shear in the short term.

[ozonepete]

YEah, I should have looked at the shear anyway. It has really high shear ahead of it 'til 60 degrees W. A broken record this season. Maybe that's why they don't bother with recon, wxman57. They don't see too much promise either...

[Blown Away]

Henri, really? The chief must of had "8 storms" in the NHC office pool.

[Brent]

What a waste. Story of the season.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 062058
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009

ALTHOUGH IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS NOW MIGRATED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...AND A
1336 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS TO 35 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI.
HENRI WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW HENRI DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT. HENRI IS LOCATED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. WATCHES ARE NOT
REQUIRED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS.

THE FORMATION OF HENRI ILLUSTRATES HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ANTICIPATE
THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION THAT DISTINGUISH STRONG TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES FROM WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES...PARTICULARLY WHEN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

HENRI IS A FRENCH NAME AND IS PRONOUNCED AS AHN-REE WITH THE ACCENT
ON THE SECOND SYLLABLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.8N 54.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 56.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.4N 58.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 61.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ozonepete]

Now you know why they stalled for a while with the advisory release, wxman57. They had to add that "disclaimer."

WTNT45 KNHC 062058
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009

ALTHOUGH IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS NOW MIGRATED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...AND A
1336 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS TO 35 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI.
HENRI WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW HENRI DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT. HENRI IS LOCATED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. WATCHES ARE NOT
REQUIRED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS.

THE FORMATION OF HENRI ILLUSTRATES HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ANTICIPATE
THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION THAT DISTINGUISH STRONG TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES FROM WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES...PARTICULARLY WHEN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

[HURAKAN]

Bill and Fred look like the anomalies of the season!!!

[Emmett_Brown]

Probably wont verify, but the GFS thinks the shear will rapidly decrease tomorrow, if that is worth anything:

[jasons2k]

HENRI IS A FRENCH NAME AND IS PRONOUNCED AS AHN-REE WITH THE ACCENT
ON THE SECOND SYLLABLE.

Sign of the times. I guess we really have become THAT stupid.

[Nimbus]

Unless the shear increases the next convective burst will keep the LLC intact. The models are not much help at this point for producing a track since they don't see the storm surviving, so I guess we just wait.

[wxman57]

I don't know that I've ever seen a first advisory as a TS with a forecast for dissipation in 36 hours or less.

[somethingfunny]

When I peeked in here earlier the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD were diverging in three different directions. Now they're paralleling each other.

[vegastar]

I don't know that I've ever seen a first advisory as a TS with a forecast for dissipation in 36 hours or less.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2009

INITIAL 05/0300Z 41.2N 20.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 48.0N 16.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED