Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N47W TO 10N54W MOVING WNW
NEAR 13 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N50W. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
TO THE NE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 43W-51W.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
36W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 61W-64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
CONFINED THE TO THE E PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N16W 7N25W 9N36W 7N44W 13N49W
12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 15W-17W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-36W...AND
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS JUST N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
31N82W TO 30N92W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED TO THE E DRAWING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E AS WELL. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN N OF 26N E OF 88W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY CALM AND CLEAR AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS E-W ALONG 27N. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
MEXICO NEAR 23N104W WITH AXIS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ARE SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE
BASIN W OF 90W. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO 15 KT. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO MOST OF THE NW PORTION
OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE TO THE SW CORNER OF THE BASIN NEAR COSTA RICA AT
10N83W. DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
82W-85W OVER NICARAGUA...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 76W-80W NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N69W
TO 20N67W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 64W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 28N80W TO 31N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 28N56W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
30N BETWEEN 55W-75W...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E
WITH AXIS ALONG 30N45W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N69W. THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 32N65W TO
28N74W. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N61W TO 29N65W...AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING TO 28N62W. A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N66W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 31N47W. A FINAL 1019 MB HIGH IS
NEAR 24N33W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DIGS BETWEEN THE TWO 1019 MB
HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 32N25W TO 27N47W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 39W-44W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN S OF 25N W OF 55W
CENTERED NEAR 14N30W. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE W SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG
38W AND THE ACTIVE WAVE NEAR 50W...SEE ABOVE.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NO
LONGER APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Henri

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI AT 5 PM AST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST TUE OCT 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...WHILE A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THURSDAY...
THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRAILING THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND SINK SOUTHWARDS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
EXPECT THE EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED TROUGH/TUTT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...
AND SINKS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY.

SEVERAL REPORTS AGAIN TODAY FROM THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY
REPORTING FREQUENT MINOR ERUPTIONS/PUFFS FROM THE SOUFRIERE HILLS
VOLCANO DURING THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. THE PRESENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE ASH PLUMES ON A WESTERLY TRACK AND THEREBY
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AND
BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE STARTS TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE APPROACHING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IN TURN WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SINKS
SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

SO FAR...LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST FRONTAL SHEAR LINE/REMNANTS OF THE
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR 20 NORTH BY EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SOMEWHAT COOLER NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SO FAR
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJPS IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH 06/22Z. AFT 06/22Z...PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. INTERMITTENT ASH
EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT ARE CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
EASTERLY FLOW TO NEAR 25 KFT...EXPECT THIS ASH TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if the NE Caribbean will get bad weather from Henri,even if the center passes to our north as that big tail is long to the south.

[msbee]

I was wondering that too Luis
we can get clipped by that tail possibly

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST TUE OCT 6 2009

.UPDATE...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
TROPICAL STORM HENRI...THE EIGHTH NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE
SEASON. AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 600
MILES...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HENRI IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
THURSDAY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT AND AREA OF MOISTURE...
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI...
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT
EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING. THE STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMES THE TROPICAL STORM
HENRI.

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.4N 55.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.All eyes are on Henri.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST WED OCT 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT
EXITS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THEREFORE THE FOCUS OF THE
AFTERNOON WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM HENRI WILL
START TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA...INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THE
SHOWER COVERAGE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INCREASING THE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS IN 10-15KT ENE FLOW.
INTERMITTENT ASH EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT ARE CONTINUING WITH
SEVERAL PLUMES NOTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST ADVISORIES KEEP
NORTHERN EXTENT OF ASH FLOW WELL SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES...ABOUT
50-75 NM SOUTH OF TISX AT FL080-150.

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE CONDITIONS AFTER 48 HOURS WILL DEPEND
DIRECTLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM HENRY. MARINERS
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION ON FORECAST PRODUCTS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
STORM AND THE STATE OF MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

[Gustywind]

Latest sat pics of Henri...

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 070825
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST WED OCT 7 2009

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OVER ST THOMAS AND ST CROIX JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM HENRI SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
VERY MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN.

EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 56.1W AT 07/0900
UTC...OR ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HENRI IS
MOVING W NEAR 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SWLY SHEAR IS KEEPING CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE
CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
52W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
55W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
43W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE...BUT BROAD...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN
66W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS
SHEARING A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N70W TO 15N59W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N BETWEEN 94W-96W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 6N26W 7N24W 5N32W 8N42W
5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 11W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 150 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER THROUGHOUT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 24N101W ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FAR SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
95W. SEE ABOVE. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE WRN GULF. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN BASIN S OF 19N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
ERN BASIN WITH AXIS FROM 14N71W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE ATLC. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N70W TO 15N59W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCING SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN
THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NW
PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 32N75W TO 31N79W CONTINUING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N85W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC W OF
70W EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
TO THE E BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE N CENTRAL ATLC AND BRUSHES THE AREA NEAR 31N54W.
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY SEVERAL SURFACE HIGHS. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 26N66W TO THE NW OF T.S. HENRI. A 1022 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N60W TO THE W OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSHING THE
CENTRAL ATLC. A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS ARE CENTERED NEAR 25N40W
AND 31N37W TO THE NE OF HENRI...AND E OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 31N17W TO 27N30W. NO SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N36W TO 44N13W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ERN BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN S OF 26N E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CENTERED NEAR 13N33W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

Just surfing on the weather site of Stormacarib.com and seems that our neighbours from the Windwards (St Vincent and Grenadines) have experienced a perturbed night with numerous strong tstorms striking the island... Hopefully things are slightly improve this morning. Here are some posts. Be safe my friends from St Vincent and Grenadines. http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... cent.shtml

- Lightning struck out KCable's fones
By Nicha Branker <branker.nicha at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 2009 23:00:04 -0400

Well in WSG lots of terrific lightning. KCable phone's dead. The river is pounding. The rain should continue all night. Stay dry all.

--
Nicha
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Rain Thunder...Lightning and Internet...
By "Colvin &quot;Koolkidd&quot; Harry" <colvinharry at yahoo.co.uk>
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 2009 01:27:03 +0000 (GMT)

Hey all well as haniff said its lots of rain thunder and lightning as i type this message and just as he has had problems with his LIME internet, i have had as well..a while ago i heard a thunder louder than ever before it sounded like it hit the ground a couple metres from my yard that was scary, on another note an excavator apparently damaged a 12 main water line in the mountains that serves portions of the windward side of the island, CWSA says they should have it fixed by 11 PM but with this heavy thunderstorms around that's doubtful for completion tonight so we have to content with some good old rain for water for now...btw the rain poured continuously for over an hour providing us with a good stock up of water (thank god). Well i am off to check up on some things and watch a little lightning oh and some TV take care all and if any new developments on "henri" i will post follow up


Good night All! Stay Warm and Safe



Regards
Colvin " Koolkidd" Harry
Radio Announcer/Operator
NBC Radio SVG



Carihost Web Media SVG -Affordable Reliable Radio Stream Hosting
Island Jamz Radio-Urban & Caribbean Gospel Music
Reggae 141-Positive Roots Reggae & Lovers Rock

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- rain, thunder and lightning!!!
By Haniff Sutherland <hanniff at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 2009 20:34:34 -0400

A spectacular show this evening, from about 6 pm lots of rain, thunder and lightning, even now the thunder still rumbles in the distance. I think this is going to be another sleepless night, oh well... it would have been nice of my internet from LIME stayed up long enough for me to post a longer report, but I have been fighting a losing battle for over 6 months now.

Latest observations in St Vincent and Grenadines: note that some datas are not present, should we suppose that some impacts of the tstorms have played a role here? Don't know... but we could imagine that things were heating up during this period (11 pm to 6 am this morning given the posts of the correspondants, that my personnal and pretty subjective supputation ).
Gustywind

Current Weather Conditions:
Arnos Vale, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
(TVSV) 13-08N 061-12W 13M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Oct 07, 2009 - 07:00 AM EDTOct 07, 2009
2009.10.07 1100 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TVSV 071100Z 10008KT 9999 FEW016CB SCT018 27/24 Q1014 CB SE+S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Oct 07 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 9
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) No Data
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) No Data
2 AM (6) No Data
1 AM (5) No Data
Midnight (4) No Data
11 PM (3) No Data
10 PM (2) Oct 06 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 8 light rain showers
9 PM (1) Oct 06 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 7
8 PM (0) Oct 06 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 9 thunder
7 PM (23) Oct 06 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) E 6 heavy with thunder
6 PM (22) Oct 06 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) ESE 14 rain with thunder
5 PM (21) No Data

[Gustywind]

Expat2carib how are you myfriend? We all keep an eye on Henri and thus on the twave at 45w and forgetting the "stormy" weather last night on the southern Windwards islands...
Did you experienced last night some tstorms like ours neighbours from St Vincent and Grenadines ?
Tkanks
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Quick info...Martinica has requiered at 6 AM an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Gustywind]