WPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (21W)

[wyq614]

To the south of Guam

[Dianmu]

New cyclone?? 21W in the future??

[wyq614]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3N 142.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE TURNING OVER A
DEVELOPING, YET BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT GUAM AND YAP INDICATE 13- TO 17-KNOT WINDS
AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF 1004 MB WITH 24-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 03 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
142.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
TURNING OVER A DEVELOPING, YET BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 071957Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS WEAK BROKEN BANDING WRAPPING INTO
TWO DISTINCT CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION. A 072040Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH MUCH WEAKER 10 KT
WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTH AND
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Looking good on radar

[Infdidoll]

Ha! And here I was wondering if you guys were on this one, yet...

[JTE50]

Had a lot of rain mid day but its tapered off quite a bit here on Guam. You could see the dark omnious clouds to the west. Very cool.

[P.K.]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 16N 143E NORTH 10 KT.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.4N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.4N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.4N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 39.9N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 142.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 080221Z OCT 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 080230) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 048
WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 16.8N 143.4E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 18.4N 142.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Looks like this storm not be much of anyting. Is that because the waters already have been churned up by Melor?

[HURAKAN]

Semi-exposed

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.4N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.0N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.1N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 142.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W
(TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 36 AND THEN WILL VERY QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT
EXPERIENCES LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MARKED BY HIGH
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 539
WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 18.5N 143.1E POOR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 20.1N 142.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm.

TS 0919 (Nepartak)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 9 October 2009
<Analyses at 09/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°40'(19.7°)
E142°25'(142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 214
WTPQ50 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0919 NEPARTAK (0919) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 19.4N 142.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 21.2N 141.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 110600UTC 21.9N 141.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 120600UTC 22.0N 141.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 130600UTC 22.8N 140.6E 425NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 140600UTC 24.1N 140.0E 500NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.2N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.7N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.4N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 142.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN