WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[beaufort12]

This thing looks totally bad on satellite, and does not appear to be in any hurry to leave Luzon. It is forecast to survive, right???

[oaba09]

This system is moving very slowly....I just wish a miracle happens.....Just leave our country damn it!!!!

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 219
WTPQ51 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 17.9N 122.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 17.5N 122.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 090600UTC 17.5N 120.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 100600UTC 17.6N 118.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 110600UTC 18.1N 117.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 120600UTC 18.6N 115.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.1N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.5N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.9N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.4N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 122.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Mostly stationary

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 042
WTPQ21 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 18.1N 122.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 18.0N 121.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 091200UTC 18.2N 120.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 101200UTC 18.3N 118.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

[oaba09]

We're experiencing very cloudy skies in metro manila right now. I'm not sure if this is the effect of parma since beased on the sattelite image, it seems to be quite far.

[breeze]

So, according to the latest track, Parma is going to go across northern Luzon again,
for the third time - and, as a tropical storm for the second time? I am reading that right -
right?

[oaba09]

So, according to the latest track, Parma is going to go across northern Luzon again,
for the third time - and, as a tropical storm for the second time? I am reading that right -
right?

Yup, you read it right...parma just loves our country...

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 042
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.5N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.5N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.7N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 121.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY STARTING
TO MOVE WESTWARD BACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS TS 20W (MELOR)
OPENS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND BECOMES LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[breeze]

So, according to the latest track, Parma is going to go across northern Luzon again,
for the third time - and, as a tropical storm for the second time? I am reading that right -
right?

Yup, you read it right...parma just loves our country...

Oh, wow! It seems so, doesn't it? I had to look at that track a couple of times, shaking my
head in disbelief!

[Derek Ortt]

how can JTWC say dissipating and then call for intensification?

[oaba09]

So, according to the latest track, Parma is going to go across northern Luzon again,
for the third time - and, as a tropical storm for the second time? I am reading that right -
right?

Yup, you read it right...parma just loves our country...

Oh, wow! It seems so, doesn't it? I had to look at that track a couple of times, shaking my
head in disbelief!

We had the worst luck the past couple of weeks......To think that the typhoon season is far from over....

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection over Luzon

[Infdidoll]

Bad Parma joke: If Parma had a gender, it would be male...because it originally wanted to go to China and has been wandering lost for days over the Philippines refusing to ask for directions.

You may now throw tomatoes...or hail stones...or flying debris. Whatever is appropriate for a weather forum.

Sorry to those in the Philippines...I hope it leaves you alone soon. It just doesn't seem right that this thing is retracing its steps just when you think you're in the clear. Stay safe!

[oaba09]

MAJOR FLOODING in the northern Philippines right now...The flooding is AS BAD as the one caused by ketsana in central luzon...maybe it's even worse........As I said, our country is having the worst luck right now.....ketsana, parma, what's next? This is so bad.......

[Infdidoll]

MAJOR FLOODING in the northern Philippines right now...The flooding is AS BAD as the one caused by ketsana in central luzon...maybe it's even worse........As I said, our country is having the worst luck right now.....ketsana, parma, what's next? This is so bad.......

I'm so sorry, Oaba. I hope the situation improves. My husband is a Marine...they just sent some people down from his unit several days ago to help aid in the Philippines. I'm sure they'll send more as needed to help out. I hope there won't be any other typhoons heading your way. You guys have had it really, really rough, but you have the support of the world, right now. We're all thinking of you.

[oaba09]

MAJOR FLOODING in the northern Philippines right now...The flooding is AS BAD as the one caused by ketsana in central luzon...maybe it's even worse........As I said, our country is having the worst luck right now.....ketsana, parma, what's next? This is so bad.......

I'm so sorry, Oaba. I hope the situation improves. My husband is a Marine...they just sent some people down from his unit several days ago to help aid in the Philippines. I'm sure they'll send more as needed to help out. I hope there won't be any other typhoons heading your way. You guys have had it really, really rough, but you have the support of the world, right now. We're all thinking of you.

Thank you infidoll...We could use all the help we can get....

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 044
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.3N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.6N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.7N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.2N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 120.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 21W
(TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 816
WTPQ21 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 17.2N 121.4E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 17.6N 119.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 101200UTC 17.6N 117.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 111200UTC 17.8N 114.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN