ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[tina25]

FWIW.. Ships is forecasting a Cat. 1 at 120 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[gatorcane]

Here are a couple of links I keep looking at from the GFS and CIMSS. Looks like shear is going to decrease over the next 24-48 hours and even more thereafter (albeit some NE shear). Not sure if Henri is going to poof so quickly, with run after run consistency with SHIPS to bring Henri to hurricane status you have to wonder.

850-200mb shear:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Shear tendency:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[blp]

Deep convection getting closer to the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[tolakram]

Nighttime visible, zoomed in a tad. Please be impressed by my awesome draw circle skills.

[brunota2003]

Is that an outflow boundary on the west side of the convection?

[Derek Ortt]

I think that is upper level outflow

[Aric Dunn]

The last image 315 is the start of that convective burst...... too bad we have to images for a few hours.. except the NRL site in about an hour or so..

this is by no means remotely dead.. and as i mentioned earlier that the shear axis continues to move in tandem with it which will keep it on the divergent side of the axis and its looking like the shear axis will slow fade away before henri can cross into the area of the ull. this is important since convection will have a easier time building being in more unstable ATM... that and since there the shear axis will weaken and open up to more of a weak upper high before the Northerly flow starts it gives henri decent chance of at the least hanging around longer..

[floridasun78]

why is nhc not picking on less shear???

[Aric Dunn]

convection ... back over the center.. lol

[AdamFirst]

FWIW.. Ships is forecasting a Cat. 1 at 120 hours.

Isn't the SHIPS model a little too...caffeinated, if you will?

Always blows up a system, it seems.

[jconsor]

Henri looks like crap right now. Cloud pattern is very distorted and elongated. Dvorak satellite estimates are now below depression status. I would be surprised if Henri is still around by the end of the day.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND PROBABLY TRANSIENT. HENRI HAS A VERY SMALL
CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DIAGNOSED AT AROUND 20 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR OVER HENRI OR ITS REMNANT DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LESSEN
SOMEWHAT IN A DAY OR TWO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 285/13.
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 19.9N 61.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 62.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 20.8N 64.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/1800Z 20.7N 66.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Nimbus]

Still convection coupled to a LLC somehow. The shear from the SW due to the exiting trough could let up some today before we start to see the influence from the eastern high. Hopefully the surface pressure gradient remains shallow.

[HURAKAN]

Still there

[Blown Away]

Hurakan, can you post the 06z BAMM info.

[HURAKAN]

484
WHXX01 KWBC 081246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC THU OCT 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI (AL102009) 20091008 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091008 1200 091009 0000 091009 1200 091010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 61.5W 20.4N 63.4W 20.7N 65.5W 20.8N 67.7W
BAMD 19.7N 61.5W 20.3N 63.1W 20.2N 65.1W 20.1N 67.6W
BAMM 19.7N 61.5W 20.2N 63.3W 20.2N 65.5W 20.3N 68.2W
LBAR 19.7N 61.5W 20.6N 63.3W 20.8N 64.8W 20.5N 66.5W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091010 1200 091011 1200 091012 1200 091013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 70.2W 21.7N 75.1W 22.3N 79.6W 23.1N 83.2W
BAMD 20.3N 70.5W 21.3N 75.8W 21.6N 79.9W 21.8N 83.8W
BAMM 20.7N 71.1W 21.8N 76.2W 22.5N 80.2W 23.3N 83.2W
LBAR 20.2N 68.7W 20.4N 74.2W 20.6N 79.4W 20.5N 83.9W
SHIP 40KTS 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 33KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 61.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 59.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 56.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, can you post the 06z BAMM info.

194
WHXX01 KWBC 080646
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0646 UTC THU OCT 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI (AL102009) 20091008 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091008 0600 091008 1800 091009 0600 091009 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 60.6W 20.5N 62.8W 20.9N 64.8W 21.1N 67.0W
BAMD 19.7N 60.6W 20.5N 62.4W 20.6N 64.1W 20.5N 66.6W
BAMM 19.7N 60.6W 20.4N 62.5W 20.5N 64.5W 20.6N 67.0W
LBAR 19.7N 60.6W 20.6N 62.4W 21.2N 63.7W 21.1N 65.0W
SHIP 30KTS 26KTS 24KTS 29KTS
DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091010 0600 091011 0600 091012 0600 091013 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 69.4W 22.1N 74.4W 22.8N 78.8W 23.8N 82.5W
BAMD 20.6N 69.4W 21.6N 74.8W 22.0N 78.6W 22.2N 82.4W
BAMM 20.8N 69.8W 22.0N 75.0W 22.8N 78.9W 23.5N 82.2W
LBAR 20.4N 66.8W 19.7N 71.7W 19.3N 77.4W 18.1N 82.6W
SHIP 36KTS 49KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 36KTS 49KTS 61KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 19.1N LONM12 = 57.8W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 55.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  HENRI       AL102009  10/08/09  12 UTC   *

 TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        23    11    11    10     7     6    11     7     8     6    13     8   N/A
SHEAR DIR        252   271   277   327    15     3    86   159   337   344    20    27   N/A
SST (C)         29.1  29.1  29.1  29.2  29.2  29.3  29.3  29.5  29.7  29.8  29.9  30.0   N/A