Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST WED OCT 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A NORTH TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
CONNECT TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID TO UPPER HIGH BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LOCAL AREA TO STAY UNDER A MID TO UPPER TROUGH FROM
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY.
ON THE OTHER HAND...TROPICAL STORM HENRI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50 WEST...LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY.
AFTERWARD...SKIES TO BECOME FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY
AND EVEN CLOUDY FOR THE PERIOD OF LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE POSSIBLE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRI WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE ITZC AND AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 50 WEST. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Henri continues to weaken in the Atlantic
James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Oct. 7, 2009 5:30 pm ET
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Henri formed in the Atlantic well east of the Leeward Islands Tuesday afternoon and strengthened but shearing winds are taking their toll and Henri has a weakening trend going on.
As of 5 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, Henri was located about 305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and had maximun sustained winds near 40 miles per hour. The current motion is off to the west-northwest near 15 mph.
The storm is battling strong upper-level winds out of the southwest. This has displaced much of the shower and thunderstorm activity to the east and northeast of the circulation center.
Given the unfavorable upper-level environment ahead of Henri, expect the system to continue a trend of weakening and is forecast to become a remnant low by Thursday
Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located to the southeast of Henri about 750 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Although the chance for further development is unlikely at this time, expect the wave to spread rain over the central and southern Antilles as it moves through in about 24 to 48 hours.
James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/Oct. 7, 2009 5:30 pm ET
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Henri formed in the Atlantic well east of the Leeward Islands Tuesday afternoon and strengthened but shearing winds are taking their toll and Henri has a weakening trend going on.
As of 5 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, Henri was located about 305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and had maximun sustained winds near 40 miles per hour. The current motion is off to the west-northwest near 15 mph.
The storm is battling strong upper-level winds out of the southwest. This has displaced much of the shower and thunderstorm activity to the east and northeast of the circulation center.
Given the unfavorable upper-level environment ahead of Henri, expect the system to continue a trend of weakening and is forecast to become a remnant low by Thursday
Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located to the southeast of Henri about 750 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Although the chance for further development is unlikely at this time, expect the wave to spread rain over the central and southern Antilles as it moves through in about 24 to 48 hours.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 072107
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 PM AST WED OCT 7 2009
SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.
BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM HENRI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHATEVER IS
LEFT FROM HENRI IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE...3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 072107
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 PM AST WED OCT 7 2009
SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.
BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM HENRI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHATEVER IS
LEFT FROM HENRI IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE...3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
$$
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Posted by: JeffMasters, 19:21 GMT le 07 octobre 2009
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1344The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become more organized this afternoon. The thunderstorm activity has grown more concentrated near 8N 50W, with a hint of some low-level spiral banding starting to form. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave will suffer from interaction with the coast of South America on Thursday. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Friday.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 58.6W AT 07/2100
UTC...OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. HENRI HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH
CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 6N40W 9N50W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 60 NM INLAND OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE E GULF...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE W GULF NEAR 26N96W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 77W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
83W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
76W-83W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W N OF 12N. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N87W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N34W. BOTH HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W.
$$
FORMOSA
AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 58.6W AT 07/2100
UTC...OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. HENRI HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH
CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 6N40W 9N50W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 60 NM INLAND OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE E GULF...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE W GULF NEAR 26N96W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 77W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
83W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
76W-83W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W N OF 12N. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N87W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N34W. BOTH HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W.
$$
FORMOSA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST WED OCT 7 2009
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED OR MOVED JUST ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AFTER SUNSET.
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SAME WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COMPUTER
MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HENRI. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ONLY
FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST WED OCT 7 2009
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED OR MOVED JUST ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AFTER SUNSET.
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SAME WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. COMPUTER
MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM HENRI. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ONLY
FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU OCT 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 370
MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL EXPERIENCE AN HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FORT THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS
TODAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THEREFORE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.
THE SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIME OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE. THE NAM SUGGEST THE ACTIVE WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AND THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND HENRI WILL ALSO HELP BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABLY THE NAM HAS A BETTER TIMING AND HANDLE ON
THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS IN 10-15KT ENE FLOW FOR ALL
USVI AND PR SITES. TCNM AND TKPK OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO MVFR TO IFR AFTER 12Z FROM OUTER CONVECTIVE REGION OF TD
HENRI.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON SEA HEIGHTS AS WAVES OF BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU OCT 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 370
MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL EXPERIENCE AN HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FORT THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS
TODAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THEREFORE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.
THE SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIME OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE. THE NAM SUGGEST THE ACTIVE WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AND THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND HENRI WILL ALSO HELP BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABLY THE NAM HAS A BETTER TIMING AND HANDLE ON
THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS IN 10-15KT ENE FLOW FOR ALL
USVI AND PR SITES. TCNM AND TKPK OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO MVFR TO IFR AFTER 12Z FROM OUTER CONVECTIVE REGION OF TD
HENRI.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON SEA HEIGHTS AS WAVES OF BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 080853 CCA
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST THU OCT 8 2009
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM HENRI IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE...2 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 080853 CCA
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST THU OCT 8 2009
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM HENRI IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE...2 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
$$
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 240
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 080532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 240
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HENRI HAD BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 08/0300
UTC CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 59.6W...OR ABOUT 310 MILES ENE OF THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND HENRI COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. HENRI
HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-59W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
50W-56W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ARE CONFINING DEEP CONVECTION TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NEAR A
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
72W-74W OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 8N26W 6N38W 8N51W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 22W-25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
30W-34W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 42W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CALM AND CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N85W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 28N91W PROVIDING DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY
FRONT CLIPS THE BASIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 31N86W
TO 31N92W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING 10 KT IN THE
ERN AND MIDDLE GULF...AND 20 KT IN THE WRN GULF. THE RIDGE
SUPPORTED RECORD HIGHS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
AND ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST FRI.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR SUPPORTING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN
78W-80W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N85W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 72W SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NO OTHER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SW AND
ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE WAVE ALONG 72W TO CONTINUE WWD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER
THE ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N46W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N32W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT COVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR
30N46W. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 16N49W
ARE SHEARING HENRI AND SUPPORTING LINES OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-55W...AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 36W-41W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN ATLC
WITH AXIS ALONG 30W.
$$
WALTON
AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HENRI HAD BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 08/0300
UTC CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 59.6W...OR ABOUT 310 MILES ENE OF THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND HENRI COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. HENRI
HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-59W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
50W-56W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ARE CONFINING DEEP CONVECTION TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NEAR A
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
72W-74W OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 8N26W 6N38W 8N51W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 22W-25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
30W-34W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 42W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CALM AND CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N85W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 28N91W PROVIDING DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY
FRONT CLIPS THE BASIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 31N86W
TO 31N92W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING 10 KT IN THE
ERN AND MIDDLE GULF...AND 20 KT IN THE WRN GULF. THE RIDGE
SUPPORTED RECORD HIGHS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY
AND ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST FRI.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR SUPPORTING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN
78W-80W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N85W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 72W SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NO OTHER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SW AND
ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE WAVE ALONG 72W TO CONTINUE WWD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER
THE ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N46W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N32W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT COVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR
30N46W. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 16N49W
ARE SHEARING HENRI AND SUPPORTING LINES OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-55W...AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 36W-41W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN ATLC
WITH AXIS ALONG 30W.
$$
WALTON
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Henri downgraded to a tropical depression
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 8, 2009 6:22 am ET
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken.
As of early Thursday morning, Henri was located 165 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum winds near 35 mph, mainly northeast of the center.
Henri will continue to encounter upper-level winds that are strong out of the southwest. This will likely result in it weakening to a remnant low by late today while moving west-northwest, and then north.
It will not be any threat to land.
Also, about 500 miles south of the southern Windward islands, a tropical wave was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The environment here does not seem conducive for tropical cyclone development.
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 8, 2009 6:22 am ET
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken.
As of early Thursday morning, Henri was located 165 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum winds near 35 mph, mainly northeast of the center.
Henri will continue to encounter upper-level winds that are strong out of the southwest. This will likely result in it weakening to a remnant low by late today while moving west-northwest, and then north.
It will not be any threat to land.
Also, about 500 miles south of the southern Windward islands, a tropical wave was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The environment here does not seem conducive for tropical cyclone development.
0 likes
[img][/img]
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
I am still wondering if we will get any rain from what was Henri as it passes north of us.
0 likes
Too many hurricanes to remember
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
well, I am getting rain right now. there are some clouds coming from the North and sitting right over my house giving me a gentle rain.
Some visitors posted this picture from their beach side villa in Simpson Bay.
This beach is usually calm.
I guess the surf was up because of Henri passing.
Some visitors posted this picture from their beach side villa in Simpson Bay.
This beach is usually calm.
I guess the surf was up because of Henri passing.
0 likes
Too many hurricanes to remember
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Barbara,I dont see a lot of rain with this as it moves westward,only some scattered showers.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17 and 14 guests