ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[HURAKAN]

12z UTC Best Track

AL, 10, 2009100812, , BEST, 0, 197N, 615W, 30, 1010, TD

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Evil Jeremy]

The circulation is weakening. I think the NHC will flatline Henri at 11.

[DanKellFla]

It's just a low. Soon, it will be dead.

[IvanSurvivor]

If this or any other AOI is expected to dissipate or be sheared apart, why do the track models extend out so far?

[Blown Away]

The 06z Ships has Henri as a Hurricane in 120 hours. I'm glad the reliable shear is taking care of Henri.

[lrak]

Looks like the shear maps are predicting better conditions for about 24 hours....hmmm.

[wxman57]

This would never qualify as a system worthy of upgrading to a depression. Obs in the region indicate some very high pressure across this disturbance - 1017-1018MB. Winds blowing away from the weak swirl. Nothing over 20 kts evident in the obs. Bones is getting tired of waiting for the NHC to declare it dead. Even if shear was to go away, the subsidence (sinking air) would prevent regeneration.

[lrak]

This would never qualify as a system worthy of upgrading to a depression. Obs in the region indicate some very high pressure across this disturbance - 1017-1018MB. Winds blowing away from the weak swirl. Nothing over 20 kts evident in the obs. Bones is getting tired of waiting for the NHC to declare it dead. Even if shear was to go away, the subsidence (sinking air) would prevent regeneration.

Spock is waiting as well wxman57, he should be informing NHC within the next couple of hours. Your communicator should buzz around 11am your time.

I sure miss those old episodes.

[Derek Ortt]

this one is dead

[Sanibel]

2009 strikes again. It is eating storms alive with subsidence or horizontal shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

And Henri lives another 6 hours.

[MGC]

Next system please. Very small chance of a come back....MGC

[somethingfunny]

92L is here. One cannot exist while the other is still around IMO. They're too close together...one or the other will die off; at this point I think 92L may become the dominant system.

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 081431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009

HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE
FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.
A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND
THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. HENRI OR ITS REMNANT
LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.8N 62.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.1N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1200Z 20.2N 65.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0000Z 20.2N 67.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1200Z 20.2N 70.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Aric Dunn]

say good bye ...

[HURAKAN]

92L is here. One cannot exist while the other is still around IMO. They're too close together...one or the other will die off; at this point I think 92L may become the dominant system.

Henri is too weak to effect 92L and vise-versa.

[wxman57]

THIS is a TD? Seriously...

[cycloneye]

Where is Bones?

[boca]

It looks like a little eddy.