ATL : INVEST 92L

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[vbhoutex]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the latest sats the first thing that has to happen is some sort of circulation needs to get going and it has to do it above the SA coast. Possible mid-level starting around the above mentioned initiation point, but this one is going to have to fight to make it, at least in the Caribbean since it is going to skirt the coast. At the moment I see no indication of a low level spin. Not to say it can't develop that close to the coast because we have seen it before, but I'm not too sure the conditions are good enough for that to happen now.

[BigA]

It is rather hard to figure out the exact direction of motion, given the lack of a surface circulation, but the convection has certainly expanded northward throughout the day.

[Gustywind]

It is rather hard to figure out the exact direction of motion, given the lack of a surface circulation, but the convection has certainly expanded northward throughout the day.

Maybe you're right given this sat pic
Barbados should feel the first effects of this vigorous twave tonight, but let's wait and see as usual...

[ozonepete]

It all depends on where the low level center consolidates. This is still just a cluster of thunderstorms with some broad mid-level rotation. The LLC could form anywhere between 9.5N and 12N or so. If it forms near 11N we'll have a depression. I don't know why anyone feels obligated to trust the initial position the NHC is using. It's a good place to start, but it doesn't have to be gospel.

[Gustywind]

Invest #92L
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... zoom1.html

Location: Western Atlantic Lat: 9.8N Lon: 58.3W Moving: WNW 21 mph (18 kts) Pressure: 29.83 in (1010 mb)

Invest #92L Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1800 THU OCT 08 9.8N 58.3W WNW 21 (18) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
1200 THU OCT 08 9.3N 56.5W W 26 (23) 29.88 (1012) 29 (25)

[Gustywind]

Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 8, 2009 4:49 pm ET
In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Henri has weakened to a remnant low.

Also, about 250 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, a tropical wave was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The environment here does not seem conducive for tropical cyclone development but some locally heavy rain may fall on the southern Windwards and Venezuela.

[cycloneye]

Radar from Martinique shows plenty of rain in bands.



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
92LINVEST
20091008.2245.25kts-1010mb-98N-583W

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 082332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

The second run from HWRF shows a little more of the system.The track slams it into Yucatan Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Emmett_Brown]

It all depends on where the low level center consolidates. This is still just a cluster of thunderstorms with some broad mid-level rotation. The LLC could form anywhere between 9.5N and 12N or so. If it forms near 11N we'll have a depression. I don't know why anyone feels obligated to trust the initial position the NHC is using. It's a good place to start, but it doesn't have to be gospel.

That is a good point Zone... this is just a wave, it doesn't have a center. So as the wave moves W into the Caribbean, we may see the portions of the wave that are over water remain active, and a center could form along any part of the wave. As long as the majority of the wave stays over water, no reason that it couldn't develop. However, the upper level divergence is expected to be poor over the ECar, so we will probably have to wait until it gets into the C and WCar to see anything pop.

[cycloneye]

Reporting to stormcarib.com is someone in Barbados.

By Peter Allen <stilettocruises at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2009 15:53:27 -0700 (PDT)

Looks like we should have a wet and windy nite tonite as this wave on our SE doorstep looks impressive on the satellite photo.NHC says it's interaction with land stops it from further development nevertheless Trinidad through the windward islands should be getting rain and gusty winds.Our friends in the ABC islands should keep an eye on it.Regards Peter

http://stormcarib.com/

[Nimbus]

The convection has built on the north side of the wave so some activity will track into the Caribbean. Guess it all depends on shear now.

[HURAKAN]

850 MB Vorticity

[HURAKAN]

The convection has built on the north side of the wave so some activity will track into the Caribbean. Guess it all depends on shear now.

You know there are a lot of "if" in these maps. "If" the map is right, then the shear is not a problem.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Above the 10.0N line.

AL, 92, 2009100900, , BEST, 0, 102N, 595W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 090046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC FRI OCT 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091009 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091009 0000 091009 1200 091010 0000 091010 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 59.5W 11.0N 62.4W 11.7N 65.1W 12.4N 67.7W
BAMD 10.2N 59.5W 10.9N 63.0W 11.0N 66.1W 10.8N 69.3W
BAMM 10.2N 59.5W 11.0N 62.3W 11.5N 65.1W 12.0N 68.0W
LBAR 10.2N 59.5W 11.0N 62.7W 11.6N 65.9W 11.9N 69.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091011 0000 091012 0000 091013 0000 091014 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 70.3W 13.7N 76.8W 14.4N 83.2W 14.5N 89.4W
BAMD 10.3N 72.5W 8.8N 78.4W 7.4N 83.2W 6.9N 87.2W
BAMM 12.3N 70.9W 12.4N 77.6W 12.6N 84.3W 12.3N 91.0W
LBAR 12.0N 72.2W 11.7N 78.0W 10.6N 83.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 68KTS 79KTS
DSHP 44KTS 55KTS 52KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 59.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 56.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 51.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[StormingB81]

Stupid question but I have been thinking about it. How do they come up with the invest numbers? and how do they come up with them from one year to the next? Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

Stupid question but I have been thinking about it. How do they come up with the invest numbers? and how do they come up with them from one year to the next? Thanks.

Invest numbers go from 90L to 99L. You start from 90 and when you reach 99, you go back to 90 and start again! Every year they use the same numbers. If you see anything from 80 to 89, then they are doing some kind of computer practices.