ATL : INVEST 92L

Typhoon_Willie · #81 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:07 pm

No such thing as a stupid question. The invest numbers start at 90 go up to 99 and start back at 90 again.

#82 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:10 pm

Awesome thank you very much!

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:42 pm

SSD Floater is with 92L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

#84 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:45 pm

Latest http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... Sector%206

#85 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:36 pm

This MIMIC TPW loop really shows where the vorticity of 92L is. It's right along 10N moving westward. You can see some of the moisture being drawn northward into the upper trof that killed Henri, but the main vorticity is moving due west. Development is unlikely along this path, except for maybe in the SW Caribbean before it moves inland into Central America.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

#86 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:53 pm

wxman57, I agree that the vorticity is down there, but the vorticity doesn't translate to the LLC. If a system is lacking a LLC, wouldn't you expect the LLC to develop closer to the convection?

Sanibel · #87 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:54 pm

This is the only one that has a chance if it can hang on. I'm not sure it is strong enough.

#88 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:03 pm

Don't know how accurate is that ship report

#89 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:14 pm

That would make it much more interesting if it is. Of course if it is it could also be just winds in the particular storm the ship is traveling through. We would need more reports to back that up.

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:15 pm

Look at that giant ridge in the SE U.S.

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:40 pm

QuikScat doesn't see a circulation at the surface

#92 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:43 pm

Lets see what D-MAX brings

Gustywind · #93 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:18 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090519
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ARE LOCATED ABOUT
270 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND REGENERATION OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Gustywind · #94 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:19 am

Gustywind · #95 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:20 am

92L...

Gustywind · #96 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:22 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090615 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC FOR GOES-12 IMAGERY...AND THROUGH 0530 UTC
FOR METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

$$
MT

#97 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:28 am

Latest

Gustywind · #98 Postby **Gustywind** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:34 am

Latest given SSD:
:rarrow:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0545 UTC 10.3N 60.2W TOO WEAK 92L
08/2345 UTC 10.4N 59.4W TOO WEAK 92L

#99 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:37 am

HURAKAN wrote:wxman57, I agree that the vorticity is down there, but the vorticity doesn't translate to the LLC. If a system is lacking a LLC, wouldn't you expect the LLC to develop closer to the convection?

But the convection will only persist where the greatest vorticity is - the mid-level rotation down south by 10N. The convection farther north is just temporarily enhanced by the upper trof that the system is passing.

#100 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:53 am

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